In many respects, drafting (and managing) a fantasy football team is like playing the stock market.
Drafters are essentially investors who use picks as currency to acquire "shares" of players across the NFL. The key to hitting the proverbial jackpot and reaping a windfall of victories is to get those shares at a discount and be one of the fortunate folks who got in on the ground floor of the fantasy equivalent of Amazon or Monster Beverage. To receive a staggering return on investment.
Conversely, no one wants to be the genius who pays big bucks for Coinbase or MySpace, only to then see their investment go up in smoke. To draft a player early who comes nowhere close to living up to his draft-day price tag.
And fantasy analysts are just like their counterparts on CNBC or Bloomberg, trying to steer fantasy drafters in the right direction.
Or not. Oops.
We even use a lot of Wall Street terminology. "Shares" is just the tip of the iceberg. When a fantasy analyst takes a stance on a player that varies wildly from the consensus, we call them a "Black Swan." When a fantasy manager panic-trades a player, we say that they have "Paper Hands." When a player appears to be breaking out only to quickly revert to obscurity, we say that they were a "Ghost Candle."
We don't actually do any of that. But who knows? Maybe it will catch on.
Anyway, just like the stock market, fantasy player values can fluctuate considerably, especially now that training camp is underway. Fantasy drafters need to know which of those assets provide the opportunity for a fat ROI. And which ones could leave fantasy squads in Chapter 11.
Think I'm done with the jargon yet?
Here's hoping that I'm better at being correct than Jim Cramer. Although it's admittedly not that high a bar to clear.
I kid. I kid.
Tickets to Ride (Undervalued Stocks)
QB Jared Goff, Detroit
Goff might not even be a stock. He's more like a T-Bill—only with the potential for a far better return for investment. And yet his ADP here at FootballGuys sits outside the top-15 at quarterback.
Per Matt Okada of 4For4, Goff, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are the only quarterbacks to finish top-10 in points each of the last four years. Goff is fifth over that span in 20-point fantasy games with 25, behind only Allen, Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes II. Joe Burrow has two fewer such games, Dak Prescott has three fewer, Justin Herbert has four fewer, and so forth.
With a price tag in Round 10, Goff might not even be a T-Bill. Last year's QB6 in fantasy points is a sawbuck just sitting on the ground waiting to be picked up.
RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee
That's right, first Goff and now Pollard. No, I'm not trying to bore you to death. I'm well aware that Pollard generates all the excitement of an oatmeal enema, but as PFF's Nathan Jahnke wrote, Pollard's a better back than he's been given credit for.
"He has averaged 3.3 yards after contact per carry over the last four seasons, tied for fourth-best among running backs with at least 500 carries, behind only De'Von Achane, Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson," Jahnke wrote. He has also generated explosive plays at a high rate, earning a +1.0 run grade on 4.2% of his carries, eighth-best among running backs."
There are two active running backs in the NFL who have topped 1,000 yards in four straight seasons, and Pollard is one of them. Tyjae Spears can't stay healthy. Nicholas Singleton is a Day 3 rookie.
Pollard's going to be a viable fantasy RB2—again.
WR Parker Washington, Jacksonville
Washington surprisingly led the Jaguars in both receptions and receiving yards a year ago, and he has reportedly been one of the stars of the early stages of training camp. While speaking to reporters, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence was effusive in his praise of the fourth-year veteran.
"Obviously the YAC he's able to create is impressive, but I mean, he also is good enough down the field to where he's not just an underneath intermediate guy," Lawrence said. "He can run the whole route tree. I think that's what really makes him dangerous is because he can go over the top too. But I would say, obviously, underneath, when he catches a ball and the ball is in his hand, there aren't many guys who can tackle him."
The wideout corps in Jacksonville is a speculative investment to be sure. But someone in that room is going to smash their asking price, and Washington is cheaper right now than Brian Thomas Jr.
TE Isaiah Likely, NY Giants
According to early training camp reports, Isaiah Likely is already being targeted on the regular by his new quarterback in the Big Apple—especially with wide receiver Malik Nabers still on the shelf. Per Jake Ciely of The Athletic, that could mean big things for the 26-year-old this year.
"Likely could join the group of tight ends who lead their teams in targets," he said, "especially if Nabers misses the start of the season. Despite limited usage (in Baltimore), Likely has an attractive 11.6 yards per reception (seventh best, min. 100 targets) and 5.5 yards after catch per reception (YAC/Rec), ahead of Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers and many others."
There admittedly aren't any guarantees with Likely with the Giants. But good luck finding anything that resembles guarantees from any tight end taken outside the top-10 at the position. What Likely does offer is upside—quite a bit of it.