For many fantasy managers, the margin for error this season has already evaporated.
Somewhere out there, there are managers who drafted Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua in Round 1. Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane in Round 2. Later on, they added New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart and Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr.
And between the injuries that have already blown through the fantasy landscape and slow starts to the season, those managers are 0-3 and trying to keep the season from coming completely off the rails. Take many more losses, and the season will be all but over long before Halloween.
Not only are those managers sifting through a list of players drafted more as reserves and depth than starters, but they desperately need to hit on every lineup decision. They need to milk every possible point out of the lineup.
They need to make every Close Call correctly.
No pressure.
Every week, we're going to look at some of the closest calls. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If you are trying to decide between Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions and Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons at running back, then you are a terrible person and should be ashamed of yourself.
Week 4 Close Calls
Jordan Love, Green Bay (QB20) vs. Marcus Mariota, Washington (QB21)
The Case for Love: The Green Bay Packers have all kinds of problems right now. The run game is non-existent. The offensive line is struggling. Jordan Love has been inconsistent. But this week the Packers face the winless Buccaneers, and SI's Thomas Carelli sees this as a "get right" spot for Love and the Green Bay offense
"Love has the great advantage of being three days more rested than his opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers," he said. "Not only that, but the Buccaneers will start undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback. The game could get away from Tampa Bay and help the Packers run up the time of possession. Prior to the start of this season, the Packers were the 3rd-rated offense. That offers a reason to call Love a high-upside play, featuring two wide receivers ranked top-15 season-to-date."
The Case for Mariota: Starting in place of the injured Jayden Daniels, Mariota helped engineer one of Week 3's biggest surprises, tossing three touchdown passes in Washington's upset of the Seattle Seahawks. Now Mariota travels to London to face a struggling Colts defense, and Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports believes that he'll have a second solid outing in a row.
"(Mariota) just scored 26.4 Fantasy points in Week 3 against Seattle, and he has now scored at least 20 Fantasy points in five of his past nine starts for the Commanders going back to last season," he said. "Indianapolis has allowed two of three quarterbacks this season to score at least 26.9 Fantasy points."
The Verdict: Mariota. If Jayden Daniels (elbow) returns Sunday, this is all moot. But that's fairly unlikely, so fantasy managers should take advantage of one more week of Mariota in a dream matchup. The Colts are hot garbage defensively—Indy is dead last in total defense, 30th against the pass and 29th in points allowed.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington (RB27) vs. RJ Harvey, Denver (RB28)
The Case for Croskey-Merritt: It hasn't been a pretty start to the season for "Bill"—the second-year pro is averaging just three yards per carry and averaged less than two yards a pop last week against the Seahawks. But as Matt Donnelly pointed out at RotoBaller, the Colts haven't been any better against the pass than they are against the pass.
"Indianapolis is allowing 28.1 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and 0.95 fantasy points per opportunity, both the fourth-most in the NFL," he said. "The Colts are also surrendering 4.75 yards per carry, the fifth-highest mark, while allowing four rushing touchdowns, tied for the second-most behind Green Bay's six."
The Case for Harvey: Harvey has been a non-factor on the ground this season in Denver—in two games played he has five carries for 24 yards. However, Harvey hasn't hurt for dump-offs out of the backfield—despite missing Week 2, Harvey is just one catch behind Jaylen Waddle for the team lead in that category.
In two games so far this season, Harvey has a 42.1% snap rate, and while he has had only 12.5% of the rushing attempts, he's posted a 44.1% route share and a 17.7% target share (2.31 YPRR). Harvey is averaging 7.5 touches and 44 total yards per game ahead of a matchup with a 49ers team that has surrendered the ninth-most receiving fantasy points per game to backs but the sixth-fewest yards per target.
The Verdict: Croskey-Merritt. This is about a combination of matchup and touches. The Colts are well and truly atrocious defensively, giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Also, Rachaad White (shoulder) hasn't practiced so far this week, so Croskey-Merritt should see an uptick in usage Sunday across The Pond.
