We live in a complicated world. Some issues, like the running back dead zone, are timeless. Others, like a Round 2 tier break, are unique to 2026.
Drafters need help navigating these areas.
We are here.
Utilizing Footballguys industry Average Draft Position data (ADP), how can you develop a plan to attack multiple issues facing 2026 fantasy football drafters?
Dear Jeff, I Drafted George Pickens in Round 2
A second-round tier break has developed across the Footballguys ADP source list. Trey McBride has an ADP of 22, Nico Collins at 21.9, then Jeremiyah Love with 23.9, A.J. Brown at 23.9, and George Pickens at 24.0.
Brown is a continued riser following his trade to New England. The NFFC, a quick-reacting marketplace, slots him highest at 16th. His consensus will rise.
The result is a hard line on the top 23 players across the market. We can quickly deduce that this impacts the manager holding the 1.01. This manager ends up seeing a tier of players cleaned out and is presented with the difficult choice between Love, Pickens, or the field.
The chart below shows ADP progression over the second round of drafts. In this sample, the ADP mean was trimmed at 25% intervals, narrowing the impact of outlier boards.
Considering they started their draft choosing between Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, managers who prefer early selections may be hoping to draw the second pick. Our Clayton Gray broke down the best draft positions based on playoff advance rates in the Footballguys Online Championship. Spoiler alert: the 1.01 has not fared well.
The primary issue with this tier break lies in the central question around each player shifting from optimism about potential ceiling to concern about potential floor.
Pickens is the first receiver who does not project as his team’s primary target. A disproportionate amount of production came with CeeDee Lamb out of the lineup. Pickens’ 17-game pace in four games between Week 3 and Week 6: 1,815 yards and 21 touchdowns. His pace with Lamb: 1,310 yards and 5 touchdowns. Overall, the environment carries minimal concern, but Pickens goes nearly a round and a half before Tee Higgins, a player with a similar profile. That said, the Cowboys balked at extending Pickens, forcing him to play on the franchise tag.
Love carries questions of its own. The Cardinals ranked 27th in yards before contact in 2025 and tied for 31st in rushing touchdowns, while finishing 26th in EPA per rush. Sources around the team have said Tyler Allgeier will have a role. Bijan Robinson, who arrived with hype similar to Love, finished as the RB21 while splitting a backfield with Allgeier in his 2023 rookie season. The Falcons team ranked ninth in rush EPA before Robinson’s arrival.
Compare those situations to Trey McBride coming off a record season or Brock Bowers, who could break McBride’s newly set records, and the ceiling vs. floor argument stands out.
Solution: Lean Into Volatility
We can hope Bowers or Collins slide. It happens, especially in leagues that are fluid and less bound to ADP constraints. An optimistic scenario is not a practical plan.
Drafting on the turn presents a unique challenge. Stressing ADP will cause drafters to miss Kyren Williams, Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, and Travis Etienne Jr. All four are coming off Top 12 RB1 seasons.
Rashee Rice’s ADP is suppressed following his legal issues. He was WR4 after returning from suspension in Week 7 until injury ended his season in Week 15. Zay Flowers and DeVonta Smith are the obvious top targets on their teams.
Josh Allen may be the ultimate pivot, allowing managers to have their top running back and the reigning top quarterback.
ADP is often our path to value. But drafters can dismiss a significant portion of the board in their pursuit of that value. When a tier evaporates, leading off the next is rarely easy, but acknowledging the talent grouping allows managers to hunt for unique solutions to recurring issues.