An Overview of the Quarterback Position
There's no question that the NFL is a quarterback-driven league. If a team lacks a "franchise" quarterback, odds are that team is deader in the water than the Carnival Sunrise—and the upcoming season is going to be every bit as stinky. Just ask the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets, who have been looking for a long-term solution under center since before the internet was a thing.
Last year, the NFL's leading passer was Matthew Stafford of the Rams, who threw for 4,707 passing yards and also paced the league with a career-high 46 touchdown passes. The Rams won 12 games and made the postseason, and Stafford was named the NFL's Most Valuable Player. It marked the 13th consecutive season that a signal-caller won MVP.
However, in fantasy football that often isn't the case. As a matter of fact, a pretty compelling argument can be made that a measure of patience at the position (or fading it altogether) returns better value than paying retail for an elite quarterback. But in fantasy football, there is more than one way to build a winning roster. It's a bit like Let's Make a Deal. There are three doors of quarterback strategy to select from.
Choose wisely—and pray you don't get Zonked.
Door No. 1: The Diamond Club
It's not that hard to see why some fantasy managers are enamored with the elite fantasy quarterbacks. The highest-scoring players in fantasy football are usually quarterbacks—last year that player was Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. In early ADP data here at FootballGuys, a handful of quarterbacks are going in the first five rounds, headlined by Allen at No. 27 overall.
But value in fantasy isn't about how many points a player scores. It's about how many points that player scores relative to others at his position.
That's where quarterbacks run into trouble—because of a little thing called positional scarcity.
| Position | Best Starter FPPG | Worst Starter FPPG | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 25.0 | 21.3 | 3.7 |
| RB | 24.5 | 12.3 | 12.2 |
| WR | 23.6 | 11.4 | 12.2 |
| TE | 18.6 | 11.1 | 7.5 |
This is something of a dumbing-down of positional scarcity because math gives me a headache. But in broad strokes, managers playing in a league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers and one tight end are rolling out just 12 quarterbacks and tight ends each week as opposed to 24 running backs and 36 wide receivers (without taking "flex" spots into consideration).
While the drop-off in 2025 from the "best" starter to the "worst" starter at running back and wide receiver were exactly the same in terms of fantasy points per game (12.2), the gap from the No. 1 quarterback to the No. 12 passer was just 3.7 points per contest—less than half the gap as at tight end.
It's just one year. But that's a number, right there. Saw some on Sesame Street once.
The "advantage" you gain by drafting an elite quarterback at ADP isn't nearly as big as the hole you're digging at running back or wide receiver. Sure, if managers hit on bargains at running back and wide receiver, you can offset that somewhat, and the longer your league-mates wait to draft the first quarterback, the easier it is to justify taking a high-end one. But as a rule, you don't want to be the drafter who breaks that seal.
To the credit of fantasy drafters, the ADP of the first quarterback off the board is eight picks lower than a year ago. And in two of the past three seasons, the first quarterback drafted finished in the same spot. But that's far more exception than rule over the past decade-plus.
Long story short, dinner at the Diamond Club just isn't worth the tab.
The Superflex Effect
Of course, everything that was just written gets set on fire for managers in Superflex and Two-QB fantasy leagues, because the entire positional dynamic changes in a major way.
In those formats, it's not unreasonable to expect two dozen quarterbacks to be in lineups in 12-team leagues. The gap there is still lower than at tight end between the "best" and "worst" starters, but the QB24 in fantasy points per game had as many fantasy points per game as the RB6 and more than the WR5.
You absolutely want a quarterback in that "Superflex" spot. The number of viable QB3 available is, um, low. If you want a little depth and a sizable edge, attack the position like Joey Chestnut at Golden Corral.
Door No. 2: Patience is a Virtue
If you polled 100 fantasy dorks (analysts, whatever—we are Legion), this is the door that would be the No. 1 answer on Fantasy Family Feud. In many seasons, Door No. 2 can offer the best of both worlds—elite upside available at a discount relative to the high-end signal-callers.
In the first five rounds, there are numerous wide receivers who can make a consistent weekly impact. The end of Round 5 is on the front edge of the "RB Dead Zone" this year (don't worry, we'll get to them soon enough). If you want a big name at the tight end position, that's the range they will be drafted.
The quarterbacks available in the QB6-QB12 range are coming off draft boards on average beginning in Round 6 and ending toward the back of Round 8. The players in that range this year include Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys, who topped 4,500 passing yards last year on the way to top-five fantasy numbers. And Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence, who was sixth in passing yards and fourth in fantasy points under center in 2025.
Is there added risk in Tier 2 or Tier 3? Of course there is—Lawrence and Prescott missed more games than they played as recently as two years ago. But that risk can be mitigated somewhat with an upside backup, and managers who do hit on a lower-end QB1 will be adding that quarterback to a roster that will be stronger at other positions.
It's like a nice dinner at Texas Road House. It might not be five-star cuisine, but it's still tasty (that cinnamon butter—goodness). Plus, you don't need a second mortgage to eat there.
Run for Your Life
This analyst is about to drop a Truth Bomb on you.
Are you ready? Are you in your Truth Bomb shelter?
Running quarterbacks are good in fantasy.
BOOM!
It's not difficult to discern why—a quarterback gets a fantasy point for 10 rushing yards, but needs twice that (and maybe more) to get that same point passing. Rushing touchdowns are often worth more than passing scores, too.
Of the top-six quarterbacks in the NFL in rushing yards in 2025, just one finished outside the top-10 in fantasy points per game. Three cracked the top-five.
Is that good? It sounds good.
The increased value of quarterbacks who pile up rushing yards isn't a state secret—it's part of the reason that Allen and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson are so costly in drafts. But of those top-six quarterbacks in rushing yards, four sit behind Door No. 2 this season.
Just saying.
Door No. 3: QB Chicken
This analyst isn't going to lie—as time passes, I wind up in these showdowns more and more often every year.
At some point in each draft, there will be two or three teams who have yet to draft a quarterback. They gaze at one another steely-eyed, waiting to see who blinks and pulls the trigger first.
That will be in this piece every year. Deal with it.
"QB Chicken" is the embodiment of the "Late Round QB" draft philosophy. It has plenty of proponents who have sung its praises for years (Say JJ Zachariason's name three times, and he'll appear at your draft. It's true.). The premise--wait to draft a quarterback. And we say wait, we mean wait. Like outside the top-12 wait. Outside the top-15 late. Take an in-draft nap (Naps are nice. Me likey naps) at the position and then grab a ceiling play or two late. Or just stream your starting quarterback while building strength at the other positions.
Is there risk involved? Yes—although not many fantasy teams were ever wrecked by missing on an 11th-round pick. But managers who hit on a late-round quarterback can find themselves in the catbird's seat entering the coming season. And of last year's top-five quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points, three had an average draft position of QB15 or later.
Is McDonald's gourmet food? Nope. But a good, cheap burger can be a day-maker sometimes.
Crap. Now I'm hungry.
Time to drop some names.