We are entering Week 7 of the NFL season. There are four teams on bye this week (Buffalo, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, and Washington), but the biggest bye week of the season is quickly approaching in Week 11, when six teams go on bye (Atlanta, Cleveland, Green Bay, LA Rams, New England, and Seattle). It's best to prepare now for what is coming. Injuries are everywhere, and teams are more than ever using a multiple-back approach at running back. Who is healthy? Who can play? Who can you add? Many factors lead to confusion about who to start, so let's go with what we know, and we know a lot. This week's column is all about helpful stats to help you make the best lineup decisions.
The name of the game is scoring fantasy points. What are some factors that lead to scoring more fantasy points that can be beneficial to your decision-making?
- Players on high-scoring teams
- Players against teams that allow high-scoring
- Players on teams that run a lot of plays
- Players against teams that allow a lot of plays
TEAMS SCORING THE MOST POINTS PER GAME
- 32.8 Buffalo Bills (197 PF)
- 32.8 Detroit Lions (164 PF)
- 29.5 San Francisco 49ers (177 PF)
- 29.2 Carolina Panthers (146 PF)
- 28.0 Kansas City Chiefs (140 PF)
- 27.0 Las Vegas Raiders (162 PF)
- 26.0 Baltimore Ravens (156 PF)
- 25.7 Jacksonville Jaguars (154 PF)
- 25.6 Cincinnati Bengals (128 PF)
- 25.3 New Orleans Saints (152 PF)
TEAMS ALLOWING THE MOST POINTS PER GAME
- 29.7 Arizona Cardinals (178 PA)
- 29.7 New Orleans Saints (178 PA)
- 29.6 Detroit Lions (148 PA)
- 28.7 Washington Commanders (172 PA)
- 28.5 Buffalo Bills (171 PA)
- 27.3 Indianapolis Colts (164 PA)
- 27.0 Las Vegas Raiders (162 PA)
- 26.5 Dallas Cowboys (159 PA)
- 26.4 Miami Dolphins (132 PA)
- 25.5 Atlanta Falcons (153 PA)
TEAMS RUNNING THE MOST PLAYS PER GAME
- 73.2 Chicago
- 68.4 Carolina
- 68.3 LA Rams
- 67.3 Arizona
- 67.0 New Orleans
- 66.7 Indianapolis
- 66.4 Detroit
- 66.3 NY Giants
- 64.5 New England
- 64.3 Las Vegas
TEAMS ALLOWING THE MOST PLAYS PER GAME
- 71.8 Detroit
- 69.0 Denver
- 68.5 Buffalo
- 67.7 Philadelphia
- 66.7 Atlanta
- 66.3 Green Bay
- 65.8 Carolina
- 65.8 Tennessee
- 64.7 New Orleans
- 64.2 NY Jets
TARGET PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS
- Detroit (2nd in points scored at 32.8 PPG, 7th in plays run per game
- Carolina (4th in points scored at 29.2 PPG, 2nd in plays run per game)
- Buffalo (1st in points scored at 32.8 PPG, 5-1 record)
- San Francisco (3rd in points scored at 29.5 PPG, 6-0 record)
TARGET PLAYERS AGAINST THESE TEAMS
- Detroit (1st in plays allowed at 71.8 PPG, 3rd in points allowed at 29.6 PPG)
- Denver (2nd in plays allowed at 69.0 PPG)
- Buffalo (3rd in plays allowed at 68.5 PPG, 5th in points allowed at 28.5 PPG)
- Arizona (1st in points allowed per game at 29.7 PPG)
- New Orleans (2nd in points allowed per game at 29.7 PPG, 9th in plays allowed per game)
TOP WEEK 7 MATCHUPS FOR FANTASY PRODUCTION
Based on points scored, points allowed, team play volume, and opponent play volume allowed through Week 6, here is a breakdown of the best matchups this week.
1. Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (Top High-Volume Shootout)
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Scoring Environment: Detroit ranks 2nd in points scored (32.8 PPG) and 3rd in points allowed (29.6 PPG). Green Bay scores 21.2 PPG, creating a projected combined game total of 54 points.
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Pace & Play Volume: Detroit allows a league-high 71.8 plays per game to opponents. Combined with Detroit running 66.4 plays per game on offense, this matchup projects for high snap counts on both sides, which is something we want to exploit for fantasy production.
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Fantasy Takeaway: Start all core starters with complete confidence (Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Josh Jacobs (even in his first game back), Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Jared Goff).
2. Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints (Top Target vs. Defense Matchup)
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Scoring Environment: New Orleans allows 29.7 PPG (tied for 1st-most in the NFL) while scoring 25.3 PPG. Pittsburgh averages 22.8 PPG, creating an ideal fantasy script.
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Pace & Play Volume: The Saints rank 5th in offensive plays (67.0 per game) and allow 64.7 plays per game. Pittsburgh runs 64.0 plays per game.
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Fantasy Takeaway: Excellent spot for Pittsburgh’s skill players: Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, and Germie Bernard face a Saints defense allowing heavy volume and high scoring. On the Saints' side, Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson are the top options.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (Top Up-Tempo Matchup)
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Scoring Environment: Carolina ranks 4th in points scored (29.2 PPG) and allows 24.6 PPG.
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Pace & Play Volume: Carolina runs the 2nd-most plays in the NFL (68.4 plays per game) and allows 65.8 plays per game. Tampa Bay runs 62.8 plays per game.
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Fantasy Takeaway: Carolina's extreme tempo creates extra offensive drives. Start Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, and Emeka Egbuka in what projects as a fast-paced divisional battle.
4. Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders (Top Sneaky High-Scoring Game)
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Scoring Environment: Las Vegas scores 27.0 PPG and allows 27.0 PPG. The Rams average 22.5 PPG and allow 23.0 PPG.
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Pace & Play Volume: The LA Rams rank 3rd in plays run (68.3 plays per game), while Las Vegas runs 64.3 plays per game.
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Fantasy Takeaway: Heavy play volume on both sides makes Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Brock Bowers, and Ashton Jeanty top-tier plays across all formats.