Fantasy Overview: The Formula For QB Success

This week, I analyze pace, rushing stats, and various metrics to reveal who you can really trust at quarterback.

Jeff Haseley's Fantasy Overview: The Formula For QB Success Jeff Haseley Published 09/30/2026

We are three weeks into the season, and the fantasy landscape is starting to take shape. This week, I examine the quarterback position and provide the stats you need to determine fantasy success. I give my thoughts on which quarterbacks are on the rise and which are in decline.

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Week 4 Fantasy Football Quarterback Tiers

2025 Quarterback Stats in Review

The Final Top 5 Quarterbacks from 2025:

What does that tell us? Availability is key. All five of the top quarterbacks in 2025 played 17 games. Every quarterback in the top 10 played at least 16 games. If your quarterback isn't on the field, especially during the fantasy playoffs, they can't help you win a championship.

What Determines Quarterback Fantasy Success?

How Do Rushing Yards Correlate to Fantasy Success?

Looking at last year's rushing totals, Josh Allen led all quarterbacks with 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing TDs en route to the overall QB1 finish. Beyond Allen, we saw major rushing contributions across the top tiers from Justin Herbert (498 yards), Jaxson Dart (487 yards in 14 games), Drake Maye (450 yards), Patrick Mahomes II (422 yards), and Jalen Hurts (421 yards).

Through three weeks in 2026, the rushing leaders at quarterback are once again setting the pace:

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Unless a quarterback throws for 45+ touchdowns (like Matthew Stafford's 46 in 2025), having 350 to 500 rushing yards is almost a requirement to contend for an elite QB1 spot.

How Do Passing Stats Correlate to Fantasy Success?

If a passer lacks rushing volume, 4,000 passing yards or 25+ passing touchdowns serve as the mandatory threshold: 

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

2025 Passing Yardage Leaders

2026 Quarterback 4-Category Benchmark Projections

Three games is a small sample size, but projecting the current pace across 17 games reveals which quarterbacks are positioned for sustained fantasy success. Last year, every quarterback in the top 15, with one exception, hit at least one of these marks: 4,000 passing yards, 400 rushing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, or 3+ rushing touchdowns. The lone exception, Jordan Love, who finished QB15. The column Total Met represents the number of benchmarks they are currently on pace to hit. Hitting two or more is a strong indicator of a Top 10 fantasy finish.

2026 QB benchmarks

Based on this data, Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Tyler Shough, Bryce Young, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes II are all hitting three or four benchmark categories.

Tyler Shough in New Orleans and Bryce Young in Carolina are both throwing the ball with incredible volume, pacing for over 5,000 passing yards. While efficiency may fluctuate, their high pass attempt totals guarantee fantasy relevance.

Others trending positively include Marcus Mariota in Washington, who has stepped in for Jayden Daniels (elbow injury) and provided 294 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in relief. Additionally, keep an eye on Deshaun Watson (105 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns). He is showing adequate dual-threat metrics needed to make a leap.

Watch for these signs of quarterbacks on the verge:

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