MISSION
The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.
The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.
While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.
The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).
My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for over 20 years.
The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what University of Kentucky Assistant GM Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.
Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM.
STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 7'S CLIFF'S NOTES
The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the bullet points in this section.
The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes
- The Marvin Harrison Jr. trade to Houston could work out for Harrison, but don't write off Jaylin Noel.
- Ashton Jeanty is hurt, but Mike Washington Jr. showed us on Sunday why Jeanty is still the better RB.
- Carnell Tate looks like the receiver we saw at Ohio State. The Titans offense is a step behind Tate.
- Germie Bernard is an extension of the Steelers' ground game. Ride him as a WR3 while you can.
- Michael Penix Jr. has stabilized the Atlanta offense, but he's not ready to assume a fantasy starter role.
- Michael Mayer will at least remain a good TE streamer in fantasy leagues based on his usage.
- Colston Loveland will rebound with Caleb Williams returning to the field.
- Savion Williams could become a fantasy streamer WR this year as an aspiring Jaden Reed.
- Corey Kiner isn't a high-end RB, but he possesses the skill to do what Bam Knight has shown.
- Josh Cuevas had a good day and some moments, but this isn't a changing of the guard in Baltimore's TE room.
1. Don't Write off Jaylin Noel
The Texans will give Marvin Harrison Jr. every chance to succeed after trading for him, but he can't play in the slot, and he's not much of a flanker. Those are Jaylin Noel's roles in this offense.
If you're going to make a cheaper bet on a player emerging like Parker Washington over the next two seasons in the Texans' passing offense, Noel is the one. He does things no other receiver on the Houston depth chart can.
Jaylin Noel #Texans Will likely be the most "Harrison-proof" of the WRs not named Nico Collins. Why? Versatility, speed+acceleration, tracking, route skills. https://t.co/Q6v1fa3qHZ
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 19, 2026
Jaylin Noel's acceleration/re-acceleration makes him unique among the #Texans WRs who are healthy. On this play, the look-in at the top of the stem and full sale to turn back to the QB with a pace that lulled the CB to sleep was the real goods. https://t.co/k1iKQpb8JO
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 19, 2026
Jaylin Noel with an excellent post #Texans - Pacing slows slightly at top of stem to sell a potential break outside or back to the QB based on his eyes on the CB - Slight head fake to outside leverage DB - Doesn't attack the ball until very late vs tight coverage https://t.co/HWiGw6vweY
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 19, 2026
Harrison runs good over routes and verticals where he can keep his back to the quarterback and track the ball over his head. He's not compelling after the catch. Noel has the highest floor of every option on the depth chart not named Nico Collins based on what you see above. He's likely the cheapest of the three, too.
2. Mike Washington Jr. May Factor, But Ashton Jeanty Is the Man
The disappointment with Ashton Jeanty is from the yards-per-carry faction of fans and analysts who place too much value on the stats and not enough on the context of the film and the offensive line. Jeanty, despite playing with two different injuries this year, remains fantasy RB11
Jeanty possesses subtleties with his game that Washington lacks. Because Jeanty isn't at full speed, and the offensive line hasn't undergone a complete upgrade, there will be a false read on Washington's value, especially if Jeanty is forced to take time off.
Washington will break big plays when there are big holes. This will get much of the fantasy community excited, but a close look reveals Washington is the Kenyan Drake of this mini-era -- a physically promising commodity who lacks efficiency that limits his ability to make most of the harder plays that Jeanty and other starters exhibit.
The rest of Mike Washington Jr.'s touches vs. #Bills Other than the draw play and a well-blocked play to the edge, not much room to run. Still a couple of runs where he overshot/rushed the development of double teams (1:47) or didn't press outisde-in as deep as he could have to leverage the edge push (2:15)
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 19, 2026
Mike Washington Jr. burst, agility, & long speed. Good raw materials. Lean less on jump stops and jump cuts and press deeper with footwork that's more precise so he can leverage that pointing of the left toe to the boundary. Inefficient and overshot the best crease https://t.co/InvcwtvUdo
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 19, 2026
If Jeanty gets time off or his injury leads to long-term recuperation, and you need a running back and can live with a volatile fantasy RB3 who will earn carries every week, Washington is a fine choice. If you're in dynasty leagues, or you're betting that a short-term rest for Jeanty opens the door for Washington to take over the Raiders' starting job, you're likely too optimistic.
3. Carnell Tate Is the WR the Titans Needed. They Need More
Carnell Tate #Titans What you saw at Ohio State - Strong tracking - Excellent body control - Boundary Awareness - Flat breaks - Reroutes well. - Handles contact effectively Worth the long-term investment. https://t.co/2mqMoZqTG2
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 19, 2026
Tate is the best rookie receiver in the NFL right now, and all apologies to Denzel Boston, but the film indicates that it's not even close. Boston is a good X receiver. Tate is more versatile and does everything Boston can at the X and more.
Tate and Boston's production will likely remain neck and neck this year because their quarterback play is volatile, and Cam Ward's offensive line is another limiting factor. Long-term, it's probably dependent on which team gets a capable quarterback either through additional development, free agency, or the draft.
If all things were equal, I'd take Tate.