Top 5 Passing Matchups
LA Rams vs Buffalo
Matthew Stafford and the Rams have been far from perfect so far. But they've been good enough to ride talent and pedigree to an average of 345 yards through the air since Week 2, with 6 touchdowns along the way. He'll now turn his attention to a Buffalo defense that routinely finds itself in tight, high-scoring games. The Bills indeed rush the passer as well as anyone, and Stafford will need to be relatively nimble. If he can, there are holes throughout the secondary to exploit, and Stafford has Puka Nacua back, which opens up the entire field in new ways. Nacua didn't look fully healthy last week, but he didn't ramp up gradually either, catching 9 of 12 targets for 125 yards and running for a touchdown. Nacua is always at risk of in-game injury, particularly right now, so his reinforcements carry tons of standalone value. Davante Adams fell back to earth as the clear No. 2, but he's still a strong play in this spot. The Bills have a tendency to coax the shootout from just about everyone.
The Bills may well reach their Super Bowl goal this year, but if they do, it will almost surely come on the arm, and legs, of Josh Allen. It's unlikely they'll bend anyone to their will defensively. The Buffalo secondary was already light on talent, with only Christian Benford counted as dependable in coverage, and Benford sat Week 4 with a lingering toe injury; it's hard to imagine him suiting up and playing effectively on it. Maxwell Hairston and Davison Igbinosun have been beaten soundly on the outside, but the bigger worry is Dee Alford in the slot. Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-142-2) and Sam LaPorta (6-52-1) erupted in this matchup, and New England won repeatedly on the inside last week too. That doesn't bode well with Puka Nacua's route-running next on the docket. The Buffalo pass rush will have to hit home early and often to break up this impressive Rams rhythm. If Matthew Stafford can step comfortably into the pocket, he'll have his choice of openings.
Miami vs Cincinnati
The Miami air attack scares no one, with Malik Willis and company still very much a work in progress. Still, their learning curve lines up nicely this week against a Cincinnati defense that can rush the passer but can't cover anyone effectively. Willis is at his best on the move, giving his receivers time to win battles or otherwise break free downfield, and the Bengals lose a lot of their downfield battles. With De'Von Achane out, Malik Washington is the default all-purpose weapon, and he's fully capable of winning on all levels of the field. He's posted at least 43 yards in each game thus far, with a healthy 27% target share that tells us his ceiling is much higher. Rookie Chris Bell wasn’t able to build off of his eight target game in Week 3, as he was held catchless in Week 4, but still has upside as the Dolphins look to develop their rookie receiver. Overall, it's hard to pick a better defensive matchup to raise a floor against.
The Cincinnati defense looked moderately better last week, preying on a shaky Jaguars line to make life semi-difficult for Trevor Lawrence. Ultimately, it made little difference, Lawrence still completed 18 of his 23 throws for 227 yards and 1 touchdown, without a turnover. There's real impact coming from up front, where new Bengal Dexter Lawrence II has stepped in seamlessly, but virtually no help down the field. DJ Turner II and Dax Hill make for an uninspiring cornerback duo. They've yet to face a strong outside receiver here in 2026, but the floodgates are cracking, and safety Jordan Battle has been brutalized through the air. The team could use help from veteran safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger, but both are currently questionable this week. Tight ends in particular have been a problem, with Dalton Schultz (12-140) and Brenton Strange (7-95) both feasting. That's far from a new problem: last year's Bengals allowed 55 more fantasy points to the position than anyone else. The Dolphins don't throw much to their tight ends, but Greg Dulcich worked his way into the game plan with seven targets in Week 3. Any opportunity he gets this weekend should be magnified.