Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Detroit at Carolina
Jahmyr Gibbs has been every bit the workhorse Detroit needs him to be, and he projects as one of the league's top running back plays again this week. The Lions have leaned on their ground game to prop up a defense that's been a weekly adventure without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, and Gibbs has rewarded that trust with explosive, high-volume performances almost every time out. In his last outing, he turned 130 rushing yards and five catches into a 31-point fantasy day, and that kind of dual-threat production is exactly why Detroit keeps feeding him the ball regardless of score or situation. With David Montgomery no longer in the picture, this is Gibbs' offense as long as he can keep up this pace. Through three weeks, he's on pace for 470 touches, which would be the second-most in NFL history. This offensive line has rebuilt some pieces and is emerging again as an elite unit. Left guard Christian Mahogany has done a nice job in his first full-time starting role, while right guard Tate Ratledge is building on his strong rookie season last year.
Carolina's run defense has been a genuine problem all season, ranking among the worst units in the league, and that's before accounting for the injury to linebacker Devin Lloyd, the one player who's made this defense dangerous against the run with his game-wrecking versatility. The Panthers already rank in the bottom six of the league in EPA allowed per rushing play, and losing their best run-stopping linebacker only compounds the problem heading into a matchup against one of football's more explosive backfields. Carolina did add Jaelan Phillips and Lloyd specifically to shore up its front seven this offseason, but neither addition has solved the tackling issues that have plagued this defense since the opener. With the Lions' offense humming and Carolina's defense ranked bottom-six in nearly every key metric, this projects as one of the week's highest-scoring games, with an over/under among the highest on the Week 4 slate. Detroit's ground game should have every chance to pile up yardage early and often behind a strong interior offensive line, and the Lions have proven that over the last two seasons by leaning on Gibbs.
San Francisco vs. Denver
Christian McCaffrey has officially taken over as the workhorse San Francisco needs him to be, posting back-to-back RB1 fantasy finishes after finally seeing a carry share north of 65% in Week 3, up from just 36.7% through the first two weeks. He ran for 75 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries against Arizona while still finding time to catch four of five targets for 41 yards, and there's no reason to expect Kyle Shanahan to pull back on that workload with Denver up next, especially with the 49ers favored at home and controlling the tempo of games all season. McCaffrey remains one of the most efficient backs in football regardless of volume, with a positive run rate north of 90%, and now he's finally getting the volume to match that efficiency after a slow opening to the year.
Denver's run defense has been the NFL's most disappointing unit this season. Last year, it allowed the fewest fantasy points in the NFL to opposing running backs. In 2026, that has changed. So far, they’ve been the worst in the league through three weeks by EPA per rush play, allowing 143.7 rushing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL, and 389 total rushing yards to opposing backs, the second-most in football. That's an alarming number for a defense that built its reputation on stopping the run over the last two seasons, and it sets up about as clean a matchup as McCaffrey could ask for. Denver's problem is that its defensive line is exposing some of the team's overall weaknesses. Defensive tackle D.J. Jones has completely fallen apart against the run, while Eyioma Uwazurike has been asked to take on a bigger role and has struggled through three weeks. This has put a lot of pressure on an average linebacker group: Justin Strnad and Alex Singleton are reliable, but they aren't game-wreckers who can masterfully shed all the blockers they're facing down to down.
Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay
Bucky Irving has quietly been one of the more efficient backs in the league to open the season, pairing steady receiving work with dependable production on the ground even as Tampa Bay now trusts an undrafted rookie at quarterback. Irving caught all seven of his targets for 48 yards in Week 3 alone, continuing to out-snap and out-produce third-down back Kenny Gainwell in a role that was initially expected to be more of a timeshare. With Baker Mayfield sidelined by a dislocated thumb, Tampa Bay figures to lean on Irving even more heavily this week to keep the offense on schedule and take pressure off Jalon Daniels in his first career NFL start, and the return of right guard Cody Mauch has only strengthened an offensive line that's climbed into the number one spot in the NFL in Matt Bitonti’s offensive line rankings, as the Mauch return is significant for this team. At 0-3, there’s no margin of error here, and Daniels provides some athleticism for the Buccaneers that they’ll need to use to accommodate his inexperience this week.
While it may be too early to sound the alarm in Green Bay, they're dusting them off and plugging them in, just waiting to hit the button. Last week, their run defense looked like they had never played football before as Atlanta ran all over them for 244 yards on 39 carries. This was a complete deviation from their first two weeks, where they looked like an average unit, even holding Breece Hall to 29 yards on 15 carries (although Hall did have success receiving). This is a defense that desperately misses Micah Parsons and the disruption he causes to opposing offensive lines. The reality, however, is that Green Bay has invested heavily in their defense, as they’ve spent first- or second-round picks on Devonte Wyatt (2022), Edgerrin Cooper (2024), Lukas Van Ness (2023), along with the acquisition of Parsons and a high-priced free-agent acquisition in Xavier McKinney. The loss of Jeff Hafley cannot be overstated, as former Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon has taken over for Hafley and, through three weeks, has been a downgrade. Gannon’s defenses in Arizona were uninspiring; they had one of the worst defenses in 2025, so unless he can rekindle some of the magic he had in Philadelphia in 2022, this could be a long season.
Washington vs. Indianapolis
Jacory Croskey-Merritt remains the clear lead back in Washington's backfield, and while his per-carry efficiency has been underwhelming so far, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry, the volume keeps coming, and this week's matchup should help turn that trend around. He handled a season-high 20 touches last week against a stout, defending Super Bowl champion Seattle defense and still stayed heavily involved, despite averaging just 1.9 yards per carry in that game. This week against a much softer Indianapolis front, there's real reason to expect a bounce-back performance. Rachaad White continues to operate as the team's primary receiving back out of the backfield, but Croskey-Merritt's 32% touch share makes him the engine of this offense regardless of the matchup. At right guard, the Commanders need to figure out a replacement for veteran Sam Cosmi. Last week, they moved backup center Nick Allegretti over to fill in, and the results were not encouraging. Again, that could be because you’re facing Seattle and one of the league’s best defenses, but Washington is down two of its best offensive linemen after losing Laremy Tunsil prior to the season.
The Colts have been one of the more exploitable run defenses in the league this season, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and ranking 27th in the NFL in points allowed per drive. Indianapolis also fails to generate negative plays against the run at an alarming rate, failing to stop running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 23.6% of opposing carries, one of the worst marks in football. Much of that stems from an offseason purge that cost the Colts their best run-stopping linebacker in Zaire Franklin, their top run-defending safety in Nick Cross, and edge rusher Kwity Paye, leaving a younger, far less proven group trying to replace all three at once. Veteran defensive tackles Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner have led the team in snaps up front but have struggled to anchor the interior the way the departed trio once did. At linebacker and safety, the holes get worse. 2024 fifth-round pick Jaylon Carlies has looked incapable of being a reliable run-stopper, but 2026 third-round pick A.J. Haulcy has been even worse, looking lost and unable to grasp this Colts defense. It’s an inexperienced defense, so it theoretically could improve, but this is a defense that allowed 100+ yards in their first two games, and while they looked better against Houston, that’s more of Houston being an incapable rushing offense so far this season.
Atlanta at New Orleans
Bijan Robinson has been the engine of Atlanta's offense all year, and the return of Michael Penix Jr. under center has only made life easier for him. With a credible passing threat finally back in the building after Penix's extended absence, defenses can no longer simply load the box against Robinson the way they did earlier in the season, and the results showed up immediately. Atlanta ran for 242 rushing yards as a team in its last outing, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt with Robinson leading the way as the focal point. He remains one of the most explosive, hardest-to-tackle backs in the league regardless of matchup, capable of breaking a long run on any given snap behind an offensive line that's settled into a groove over the past month. Head coach Kevin Stefanski's offense has built its identity around controlling tempo and wearing down fronts with Robinson before unleashing the passing game in more favorable spots, a formula that mirrors the approach that made him successful running a run-heavy offense earlier in his career, and it's paid off handsomely for Atlanta through the opening month of the season.
New Orleans’ run defense is a big question and maybe not in a bad way. While they’re allowing the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs, their schedule has been unmatched. Through the first three weeks, they’ve faced Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and Ashton Jeanty. It doesn’t get easier in Week 4, as they face Bijan Robinson, who may be the best of the group. The pieces of a strong defense are there, but they’re still trying to come together as a group. This is a unit that lost Demario Davis to the Jets this offseason, who was their leader with 143 tackles last season. Linebackers Pete Werner and Kaden Elliss are extremely talented just have big shoes to fill, especially with the interior of the defensive line being the weakness as Nathan Shepherd and Davon Godchaux are both weak spots along the interior of the defensive line.