Fantasy Notebook: Breece Hall Or Chase Brown? Which RB Delivers In 2025?
By Bob Harris - Exclusive to Footballguys
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Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the offseason.
Let's dive in . . .
Where Were We?
The Super Bowl is in the books, and I have a few notes below -- in the Good, The Bad, And The Ugly section.
For now, congratulations, Eagles fans. Also, sorry Chiefs fans.
But we have business to attend to here. Fantasy business. That means continuing our hunt for values. As we've done the last three weeks, I'll examine a player who fell short of expectations in 2024 and one who exceeded them and assess their potential values this year.
In case you missed it, finding value in drafts is your path to fantasy success.
It's also an offseason-long process. So this is just the starting point. We're setting baselines. Then we'll revisit these players over the coming months to see how things are progressing as the season draws nearer . . .
Should We Give Hall A Pass This Year?
As fantasy investors who burned an early first-round pick to secure his services last summer will tell you, Breece Hall was a massive disappointment in 2024. But, as SI.com's Matthew Schmidt pointed out, pretty much everything about New York was underwhelming last season.
So it's fair to wonder if Hall or Hall's circumstances were the primary driver of his finish.
Hall had been full throttle since he was drafted out of Iowa State in the second round in 2022. As the team's official website reminded us, he was on pace in '22 to be in the discussion for Offensive Rookie of the Year before his season was cut short by an ACL injury in Week 7. He responded with 1,585 scrimmage yards, the second-most among running backs in the 2023 season.
That included 994 rushing yards at a 4.5-yard per carry clip. Hall also hauled in 76 receptions on 90 targets that season.
He finished the 2023 season as RB2 with 288 fantasy points.
This past season, he finished with 1,359 scrimmage yards (14th among running backs) and eight touchdowns. He ran for 876 yards, 54.8 yards per game, in 2024. His receptions fell to 57 on 74 targets.
His RB16 finish fell far short of his RB3 Average Draft Position (ADP) last summer when he was selected with the sixth pick overall . . .
What's The Upside?
Hall, who will turn 24 in May, has the makeup to be one of the league's top three-down backs. Since his arrival, he's the only running back in the league to have at least 100 receiving yards in multiple games. His five games with at least 150 scrimmage yards are the fifth most for a running back, and his four games with at least 50 rushing and 50 receiving yards are tied for the third most in the league.
His receiving work bolstered Hall's fantasy stock. His 90 targets in 2023 led all running backs . . .
What In Hades Happened?
Last season, Hall was hampered by a knee injury that had him listed on the injury report for most of the final six games. He missed the Week 14 matchup at Miami, and rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis were also limiting factors at times.
And the team's offensive line wasn't great.
According to Footballguy Matt Bitonti's final 2024 Offensive Line Rankings, the Jets ranked 23rd as a run-blocking unit.
But the problems ran deeper than that . . .
Tale Of The Tape
According to Jets X-Factor's Rivka Boord, the assumption that New York's poor run-blocking kept Hall's production down is far from the truth. While Boord acknowledges that the Jets' run-blocking was horrible to start the season, it rebounded in Week 6.
However, you wouldn't know it based on Hall's final statistics.
From Weeks 1-5, Hall averaged just 3.1 expected yards per carry, which would have been the second-lowest among all qualified running backs over a full season in the NFL Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). However, he managed to be worse than his blocking, posting 3.0 yards per carry.
According to Boord, "Hall's miserable performance over the first five weeks and average numbers from there on out produced a mediocre season."
Utterly Unexplosive
Hall had a very high breakaway yards rate -- north of 40 percent -- in his first two seasons. He led the league in that area in 2023. Ultimately, his big runs allowed him to have strong final totals despite disastrous run-blocking. Hall would take nothing and turn it into major gains on the regular.
In 2024, Hall's breakaway yardage diminished significantly -- down to 26.3 percent.
In and of itself, that would not mean he had a bad season. However, in the context of his total season, it further emphasizes that he lacked explosiveness.
Adding to all that, Next Gen Stats reveals the top speed Hall reached all season in 2024 was 20.27 mph, while his top speed in 2023 was 21.5 mph. Boord argues the only way to explain a drop-off that steep for a 23-year-old running back in his second year off an ACL tear (as compared to his first) is injury.
Whatever the case, Hall ranked ninth among backs in runs of 10-plus yards. He ranked 12th in 15-plus yards runs. But when shrinking the pie to runs of 20-plus yards, Hall's ranking fell to 25th.
In other words, Hall did gain some chunks, but they just weren't as big as he had in the past . . .
Change Is Coming
Even assuming Hall is back to full speed this season, fantasy managers will have to deal with various levels of uncertainty in New York.
Besides a new head coach, Aaron Glenn, and offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, there will be significant changes in New York this year -- including at quarterback after the Jets announced on Thursday they'll be moving on from Aaron Rodgers.
Boord contends there are also serious questions about the Jets' running back room.
While Allen and Davis showed flashes as rookies, neither were that impressive statistically, particularly when breaking tackles. If Hall doesn't return to form, the Jets' room looks dangerously thin -- as does their entire offense . . .
Could Change Come For Hall, Too?
If Hall does rebound in 2025, it'll be the last year of his rookie deal. Then he hits the running back aging curve and questions whether it's worthwhile to extend him, as well as the reality that Hall's cheap years (one of the primary purposes of drafting a player) ended up marred by injury.
So, even though receiver Garrett Wilson is the buzzy trade candidate these days, ESPN.com's Ben Solak predicts the Jets are likelier to trade Hall.
The list of potential suitors would include the Chargers and Cowboys . . .
Setting Expectations
How does a player equipped with the tools to be one of the best at his position rebound?
Staying on the field will be Hall's first objective. He understands what it takes.
"Every running back can run the ball; every good running back that plays three downs can catch," Hall said. "My biggest challenge from all my coaches was just pass protection. Then, one of the things I try to improve all the time is consistency. I feel like as a running back, with the way we get our bodies beat up and stuff, some days you don't have like you do on other days when you're feeling better.
"So for me, just trying to stay the same guy every day and just keep improving and finding ways to take care of my body."
Making the most of his role will be vital. One of our objectives will be understanding that role in an environment that will look very different from Hall's past seasons.
FantasyPros' Pat Fitzmaurice, setting Hall's initial value at RB11 with a late second-round price tag, is willing to blame Hall's 2024 issues on the Jets and their train wreck of a season.
"Unfortunately," Fitzmaurice added, "the Jets might not be any less of a train wreck in 2025."
That's true.
But we've seen the upside. We've seen a healthy Hall being explosive while playing an integral role in the passing game. We've seen him overcome poor blocking and less-than-stellar quarterback play.
So there's reason to believe we'll get value here.
Footballguy Dave Kluge's outlook, as he laid out in (Way Too Early) 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings, is slightly more optimistic than Fitzmaurice.
Kluge has Hall as his RB8 in the middle of the second round.
"He's checked the boxes as an elite talent," Kluge wrote. "He'll be just 24 next year. Assuming he falls into this range in 2025 drafts, he could be one of next year's best draft-day values."
For the record, Kluge has him ahead of Tampa Bay's Bucky Irving, rookie Ashton Jeanty, the Rams' Kyren Williams, Baltimore's Derrick Henry, and Houston's Joe Mixon.
The Flip Side
For every player who falls short, there are players who exceed expectations or outperform their ADP. Let's look at a great example . . .
Chasing Another RB1 Season
One player Kluge has ahead of Hall is Bengals running back Chase Brown.
It's understandable.
At the beginning of the 2024 season, Brown split reps with Zack Moss, a free-agent addition made to help replace Mixon. However, Brown bore the brunt of the workload once Moss went on injured reserve on Nov. 5 with a neck injury.
In Week 9, the first week without Moss, Brown got 100 percent of the running back touches for the Bengals, carrying the ball 27 times for 120 yards with five receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown.
It was a sign of things to come.
Until he missed the last game of the season, Brown was on the field at least 80 percent of the time and up to 98.5 percent (Week 15 against Cleveland).
The playing time translated well, as Brown finished 10th in points among running backs backs in the fantasy season. From Weeks 4 through 17 (he didn't play Week 18), Brown emerged as a league-winning asset as he posted RB6 numbers.
That's great.
It's downright extraordinary when you realize that heading into the season, Brown was drafted as RB37 with the 105th pick overall . . .
Will The Bengals Add To Their Backfield?
As SBNation's Jason Garrison recently noted, the Bengals will have a chance to re-sign and extend their own, and add a group of new players, both veterans and rookies.
One idea Garrison has seen floated around is pairing Brown's lightning with another running back's thunder -- someone like Ashton Jeanty with the No. 17 overall pick or a bruiser like Najee Harris in free agency.
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