Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY DECEMBER 2nd @ 7 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Oakland | -14 | 34.5 | 55 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Rams | Detroit | -10 | 32.25 | 54.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Dallas | -7.5 | 29.5 | 51.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | -3 | 28.25 | 53.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Seattle | San Francisco | -10 | 28 | 46 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Green Bay | Arizona | -13.5 | 27.5 | 41.5 | ++ | ++ | +++ |
| Pittsburgh | LA Chargers | -3 | 27.25 | 51.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| New England | Minnesota | -5 | 27.25 | 49.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Houston | Cleveland | -5.5 | 26.5 | 47.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Philadelphia | Washington | -6 | 25.5 | 45 | + | + | + |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -4 | 25.5 | 47 | + | + | |
| Atlanta | Baltimore | -2.5 | 25.5 | 48.5 | + | + | |
| Tampa Bay | Carolina | 3 | 25.25 | 53.5 | + | + | |
| Tennessee | NY Jets | -10 | 25.25 | 40.5 | + | ++ | +++ |
| Denver | Cincinnati | -5 | 25 | 45 | + | + | + |
| LA Chargers | Pittsburgh | 3 | 24.25 | 51.5 | + | + | |
| Chicago | NY Giants | -3.5 | 23.75 | 44 | |||
| Baltimore | Atlanta | 2.5 | 23 | 48.5 | |||
| Detroit | LA Rams | 10 | 22.25 | 54.5 | |||
| Minnesota | New England | 5 | 22.25 | 49.5 | |||
| Dallas | New Orleans | 7.5 | 22 | 51.5 | |||
| Miami | Buffalo | -3.5 | 21.75 | 40 | + | ||
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 4 | 21.5 | 47 | |||
| Cleveland | Houston | 5.5 | 21 | 47.5 | |||
| Oakland | Kansas City | 14 | 20.5 | 55 | |||
| NY Giants | Chicago | 3.5 | 20.25 | 44 | |||
| Cincinnati | Denver | 5 | 20 | 45 | |||
| Washington | Philadelphia | 6 | 19.5 | 45 | |||
| Buffalo | Miami | 3.5 | 18.25 | 40 | |||
| San Francisco | Seattle | 10 | 18 | 46 | |||
| NY Jets | Tennessee | 10 | 15.25 | 40.5 | |||
| Arizona | Green Bay | 13.5 | 14 | 41.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Jared Goff (Rams), Drew Brees (Saints), Cam Newton (Panthers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Todd Gurley (Rams), Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Chris Carson (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Robert Woods/Brandin Cooks/Josh Reynolds (Rams), Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Dan Arnold (Saints), Devin Funchess/D.J. Moore/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/David Moore (Seahawks)
- Defense: Packers, Titans
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Tom Brady (Patriots), Deshaun Watson (Texans)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), James Conner (Steelers), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Lamar Miller (Texans), Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis (Titans)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Jimmy Graham (Packers), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), DeAndre Hopkins/Demaryius Thomas/Keke Coutee (Texans)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Andrew Luck (Colts), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Marcus Mariota (Titans), Case Keenum (Broncos), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Marlon Mack (Colts), Josh Adams (Eagles), Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Phillip Lindsay (Broncos), Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
- Receivers: T.Y. Hilton/Dontrelle Inman/Eric Ebron (Colts), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Golden Tate/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Mike Evans/Adam Humphries/Chris Godwin/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Corey Davis/Tajae Sharpe/Jonnu Smith (Titans), Emmanuel Sanders/Courtland Sutton/Matt LaCosse (Broncos), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams (Chargers)
- Defense: Seahawks, Dolphins, Eagles, Broncos
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