TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, Week #1

John Lee's TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, Week #1 John Lee Published 09/06/2019

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

DON'T BUY INTO THE HYPE: Coming out of the draft that leads into the preseason that brings us to Week #1, there are a litany of narratives and hype surrounding players, coaching schemes, and personnel. For example, Justice Hill has looked the part in Baltimore, Jimmy Garoppolo had a terrible preseason, and Julio Jones is irritated with his current contract situation. Assuming each of those stories to be true, we should avoid Mark Ingram, Jimmy G., and Julio Jones, right? Not so fast. When there are no stats from which the media can write articles and assess talent, there is a tendency to create narratives that result in article clicks because, after all, nobody is going to read an article about Julio Jones starting against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. While Justice Hill may actually be the real deal, do not make the mistake of slotting him into your lineups based solely on preseason hype; truth is that he has looked great, but Mark Ingram is a proven commodity in this league and the Ravens will more than likely ease Hill into their offense while Ingram does the heavy lifting. It's this kind of thinking that can make the difference between winning and losing on Opening Weekend. Do your research, rely on established talent, and trust your instincts. And because we are in this together, I wish you the best of luck...

NEW FORMAT!

NAME MATCHUP SALARY PUBLIC CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Warren Moon @CAR $6,400 11% Yes 4 4 stars = Best GPP selections
Joe Montana KC $8,000 18% - 3 3 stars = Better GPP selections
Dan Marino NYG $4,400 3%% Yes 2 2 stars = Good GPP selections
Jim Kelly @OAK $5,100 7% - 1 1 star = Average GPP selections

A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:

  • The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
  • The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
  • The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
    • 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
    • 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
    • 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
    • 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
  • If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.

QUARTERBACKS

NAME MATCHUP SALARY PUBLIC CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Kirk Cousins @ATL $5,500 5% Yes 4 All Vikings are too cheap this week.
Patrick Mahomes II @JAX $7,200 9% Yes 4 Scored 30 on a better JAX D in 2018.
Jameis Winston SF $6,600 10% - 4 Potential shootout in Battle of the Bays.
Matt Ryan MIN $6,100 4% - 3 Better indoors. Possible barnburner.
Jimmy Garoppolo @TB $5,800 4% - 3 Low ownership, high upside = GPP dandy.
Cam Newton LAR $6,500 6% - 3 High Vegas total opposite potent Rams offense.
Jared Goff @CAR $6,200 4% - 3 See notes on Cam above.
Philip Rivers IND $5,900 2% - 3 With Ekeler, all scores could come via air.
Nick Foles KC $5,300 3% - 3 Gamescript demands 40+ passes at low salary.
Russell Wilson CIN $6,300 5% - 3 3rd-highest team total on main slate. Lockett stack.
Carson Wentz WAS $5,700 8% - 2 Only question is if 'Skins can keep it competitive?
Dak Prescott NYG $5,900 2% - 2 All eyes on Zeke, but Amari/Gallup are legit combo.
Matthew Stafford @ARZ $5,400 2% - 2 Could dice this secondary, but DET is too run-heavy.
Sam Darnold BUF $5,100 1% - 1 Just enough exposure to get some Jamison stacks.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Daily FF Josh Allen Keenan Allen Ugo Amadi Robbie Chosen Mark Andrews Peyton Barber Saquon Barkley Odell Beckham Jr Le'Veon Bell Blake Bortles Tyler Boyd Jacoby Brissett John Brown Chris Carson Nick Chubb D.J. Chark Jr Justin Coleman Tevin Coleman Chris Conley Brandin Cooks Dalvin Cook Amari Cooper Kirk Cousins Jamison Crowder Sam Darnold Stefon Diggs Jack Doyle Eric Ebron Austin Ekeler Ezekiel Elliott Evan Engram Zach Ertz Mike Evans Ryan Fitzpatrick Nick Foles Leonard Fournette Devonta Freeman Michael Gallup Jimmy Garoppolo Chris Godwin Jared Goff Kenny Golladay A.J. Green Derrick Henry Hunter Henry Rashard Higgins Justice Hill Tyreek Hill T.Y. Hilton Austin Hooper Jordan Howard O.J. Howard Adam Humphries Mark Ingram II DeSean Jackson Lamar Jackson David Johnson Duke Johnson Jr Kerryon Johnson Julio Jones Marvin Jones Jr Case Keenum Travis Kelce Christian Kirk George Kittle Cooper Kupp Jarvis Landry Tyler Lockett Marlon Mack Patrick Mahomes II Marcus Mariota Baker Mayfield Christian McCaffrey Terry McLaurin DK Metcalf Joe Mixon DJ Moore Kyler Murray Latavius Murray Cam Newton David Njoku Patrick Peterson Dante Pettis Dak Prescott Jalen Ramsey Calvin Ridley Aaron Rodgers Matt Ryan Curtis Samuel Miles Sanders Sterling Shepard Richard Sherman Matthew Stafford Adam Thielen Darwin Thompson Sammy Watkins Carson Wentz Dede Westbrook Tre'Davious White Damien Williams Damion Willis K'Waun Williams Russell Wilson Jameis Winston Robert Woods
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