For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
2019 FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Aaron Rodgers | @NYG | $6,500 | 8% | - | «««« | Sweet, sweet matchup vs. 27th-ranked DVOA pass defense. |
Jared Goff | @ARZ | $6,000 | 7% | - | «««« | ARZ: 28th-ranked DVOA pass defense. Get-right spot. |
Patrick Mahomes II | OAK | $7,000 | 13% | Yes | «««« | Absolute smash spot. 300+ yards in 70% completed games. |
Kyle Allen | WAS | $5,500 | 2% | - | ««« | 23+ DK points versus better Saints defense in last. |
Carson Wentz | @MIA | $5,800 | 9% | - | ««« | No better matchup to fix his recent struggles. |
Derek Carr | @KC | $5,500 | 2% | - | ««« | KC defense is allowing nearly 4x Carr's salary to QBs. |
Andy Dalton | NYJ | $4,700 | 7% | - | «« | Makes return at home versus pass-funnel defense. |
Nick Foles | TB | $5,700 | 9% | - | «« | TB secondary legitimizes all opposing quarterbacks. |
Jameis Winston | @JAX | $6,300 | 8% | - | «« | Inefficient, but 6-straight 20+ point performances. |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | PHL | $5,400 | 1% | - | «« | Ballage's ineffectiveness + gamescript = GPP relevance. |
Sam Darnold | @CIN | $6,100 | 8% | - | « | Plush spot for red-hot QB averaging 26 PPG over last 3. |
Lamar Jackson | SF | $7,400 | 10% | Yes | « | Rainy conditions could increase his running output. |
Kyler Murray | LAR | $6,400 | 4% | - | « | Rested off bye. Same Rams D that allowed 5 TDs to Lamar. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: Cash games are fairly straightforward at the quarterback position this week: Spend up. Regular readers of the column know that I typically like to save salary at the quarterback position, but this is a week where it appears that spending a good chunk of your salary on a quarterback is merited because there is too much risk at the lower end of the salary scale. For what it's worth, Andy Dalton nearly made the cut, but there are too many unknowns around his situation to feel confident in that selection (for cash games). So pick your poison between Patrick Mahomes II ($7.0K) or Lamar Jackson ($7.4K) against the Raiders and 49'ers, respectively. Mahomes is coming off a bye week, where Andy Reid is 17-3 in his career, to face a Raiders defense that is ranked 30th overall against the pass (DVOA metric); with an implied team total surpassing 30 points and 300+ passing yards in 5 out of 7 games, Mahomes looks primed to deliver 25+ fantasy points once again on Sunday. At first glance, one might balk at rostering Lamar Jackson against one of the league's better defenses in the San Francisco 49'ers, but the Niners have multiple injured defensive starters and allowed "Lamar Jackson-lite" (aka Kyler Murray) to compile 50 points across a pair of games this season. With anticipated rainy conditions, we will probably see more of Jackson's speed on display and the Niners simply have no answer for him.
GPP: Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to deliver plenty of fantasy production on Sunday at the Meadowlands. The Pack was embarrassed by the 49'ers last week on Sunday Night Football and there is no better rebound spot than against the Giants, who have allowed all but 2 quarterbacks to collect multiple touchdowns and/or 300-passing yards this season. The Giants' 27th-ranked DVOA pass defense should make things look easy for Rodgers and company, making him a reasonable tournament quarterback on less than 10% of lineups. A similar argument could be made for Jared Goff in Arizona--the Cardinals field the 28th-ranked DVOA pass defense, while the Rams are coming off an equally embarrassing loss to the Ravens last Monday night. Goff has been mediocre, at best, this season, but this game sets up well for him and his receivers against the league's friendliest defense to opposing quarterbacks (yes, more than Tampa Bay). In the middle range of salaries, both Carson Wentz and Kyle Allen are also intriguing tournament options. Wentz gets a plush matchup against the league's worst defense, one that has allowed 7 touchdowns and nearly 600 passing yards to Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen over their previous 2 games. Allen, on the other hand, is far too low-owned at 2% against a Redskins defense that has yielded three or more touchdowns to five different quarterbacks this season; prior to last week where Allen threw for 3 touchdowns against a solid Saints defense, he posted back-to-back 300-yard games in his previous pair of efforts.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Christian McCaffrey | WAS | $10,500 | 32% | Yes | «««« | Best gamescript all season; 109 touches over past 4. |
Miles Sanders | @MIA | $5,400 | 25% | Yes | «««« | Rightful chalk vs. 29th DVOA rush defense. Smash spot. |
LeVeon Bell | @CIN | $7,200 | 14% | - | ««« | Despite modest 2019 numbers, cannot ignore in this spot. |
Leonard Fournette | TB | $7,500 | 15% | - | ««« | Usage is undeniable, but tough spot vs. #2 DVOA rush D. |
Ronald Jones II | @JAX | $5,100 | 8% | Yes | ««« | Jags have been diced on the ground for 3 straight games. |
Josh Jacobs | @KC | $6,900 | 10% | - | ««« | Plus matchup, but terrible implied gamescript. Risky. |
Chris Thompson | @CAR | $3,700 | 1% | - | «« | Returns for pass-happy gamescript that suits him. |
Joe Mixon | NYJ | $5,800 | 7% | - | «« | Dalton's return should help elevate entire offense. |
Saquon Barkley | GB | $7,400 | 15% | - | «« | GB: 28th DVOA rush defense. Cannot ignore his upside. |
Benny Snell | CLE | $4,700 | 3% | - | «« | W/Hodges at QB, Snell should be focal point of offense. |
LeSean McCoy | OAK | $4,800 | 9% | - | «« | No Damien Williams = more LeSean as 10-point fave. |
Phillip Lindsay | LAC | $5,000 | 15% | Yes | «« | Expect him to be focal point of offense w/young QB. |
Derrick Henry | @IND | $7,600 | 8% | - | « | He has begun his "November run" w/5 TDs in past 3 games. |
Jonathan Williams | TEN | $5,300 | 23% | - | « | Gets RB1 role for another week on run-first offense. |
Mark Ingram | SF | $6,000 | 5% | - | « | SF: Solid defense, but has been more susceptible to run. |
Jamaal Williams | @NYG | $4,500 | 9% | - | « | Recent increased usage merits consideration at salary. |
Aaron Jones | @NYG | $6,800 | 9% | - | « | LaFleur claimed that Jones will get more action soon. |
Nick Chubb | @PIT | $7,800 | 4% | - | « | Volume-driven consideration versus solid defense. |
Todd Gurley | @ARZ | $6,500 | 9% | - | « | Gamescript-dependent play, but attractively priced. |
Jalen Richard | @KC | $4,200 | 1% | - | « | Trailing gamescript sets up well for increased usage. |
Darrel Williams | OAK | $4,400 | 2% | - | « | See notes on LeSean McCoy (splitting action). |
Melvin Gordon | @DEN | $6,400 | 4% | - | « | Looking better of late. "Fresh legs" could help cause. |
RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:
CASH: If you can afford him in conjunction with one of the expensive quarterbacks referenced above, feel free to roll out Christian McCaffrey in cash games again this week. As 10-point home favorites, this is the most favorable implied gamescript that CMC has had all season. He ticks all the boxes for both cash and tournament formats against the Redskins' 21st-ranked DVOA rush defense. The next most popular option at running back will most likely be Miles Sanders, who should collect the bulk of the opportunities out of the Eagles backfield against the lowly Dolphins. Last week, Sanders touched the ball 15 times in a loss to the Seahawks while giving only 6 carries away to Jay Ajayi; we should expect Sanders to come in with more than 20 touches this week with a much better gamescript and another week of practicing as the Eagles' lead running back. From there, it's a pair of running backs who have historically split work in their respective backfields, but recently both Phillip Lindsay and Ronald Jones II have been announced as primary running backs by their respective coaches. Lindsay should get plenty of work as a ball-control carrier looking to protect a young quarterback (still undetermined as of the writing of this article), while Jones has a soft matchup against the Jaguars, who have allowed 4x 100-yard rushers over their previous 3 games.
GPP: There is no argument that the LeVeon Bell experiment in New York has largely been a failure. Bell's dance-and-wait running style has not resonated behind the Jets' lesser (compared to Pittsburgh) offensive line. However, we cannot just ignore the matchup that Bell has this week against the Bengals, who allowed Benny Snell to collect 98 rushing yards just last weekend. Cincinnati allows the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and Bell is primed for some positive touchdown regression after Sam Darnold threw two touchdowns from the 1-yard line last week and ran another in for a score from the 4-yard line. Josh Jacobs is a prime example of a GPP play on Sunday: Risky with high upside. The Raiders have demonstrated that they will not use Jacobs in passing situations, as evidenced by his 18 catches across 11 games, but no team in the NFL allows more production to running backs than the Chiefs, which bolsters an argument for Jacobs, if the Raiders can manage to keep this game within a score for most of the game. Only a handful of teams run the ball more often than Oakland, so we should expect Jon Gruden to try to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes II' hands and run clock with Jacobs as much as possible. Lastly, as a GPP flyer, Chris Thompson makes his return this week as a 10-point underdog against the Panthers. Thompson is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, who also lines up out of the slot, as needed. If this games plays out as Vegas projects, Thompson should get plenty of playing time against the league's last-ranked DVOA rush defense at a fair price ($3.7K) and could feasibly finish with 6-8 receptions and a similar number of carries at ownership levels well below 5%.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Davante Adams | @NYG | $7,000 | 29% | Yes | «««« | Chalk. Should be priced $1K higher vs. NYG secondary. |
Cooper Kupp | @ARZ | $7,100 | 11% | - | «««« | Cards cannot defend slot WRs--rebound spot for Kupp. |
Tyreek Hill | OAK | $8,900 | 15% | - | «««« | Speedster can run circles around this slow secondary. |
D.J. Moore | WAS | $6,800 | 12% | Yes | ««« | Usage and production trending up of late. Soft spot. |
Chris Godwin | @JAX | $7,700 | 11% | - | ««« | Averaging more PPG than Evans. Price, however, hurts. |
Alshon Jeffery | @MIA | $5,100 | 9% | - | ««« | Zero 100-yard games in 2019. No better week than now. |
Sammy Watkins | OAK | $5,400 | 13% | - | ««« | TD-regression candidate on high-scoring squad. |
Tyrell Williams | @KC | $5,400 | 7% | - | ««« | Will need to step up in pass-heavy gamescript vs. KC. |
Keenan Allen | @DEN | $6,500 | 4% | - | ««« | 10+ targets in 5 of last 6. Tough matchup vs. Harris. |
Jamison Crowder | @CIN | $5,600 | 7% | - | «« | 3 scores in past 4 games. WR1 versus porous defense. |
Tyler Boyd | NYJ | $5,500 | 16% | - | «« | Should return to WR1 status with Dalton under center. |
Auden Tate | NYJ | $4,000 | 8% | Yes | «« | With 6'5" frame, could be Dalton's primary redzone WR |
Mike Evans | @JAX | $6,900 | 20% | - | «« | Priced too low off disappointing game. Rebound spot. |
D.J. Chark | TB | $6,600 | 19% | - | «« | No better matchup. Highest price of the 2019 season. |
Allen Lazard | @NYG | $3,700 | 2% | - | «« | See notes on Geronimo Allison. Bona fida WR3 for GB. |
Sterling Shepard | GB | $4,900 | 12% | Yes | «« | Returns just in time: Tate, Engram, Ellison = inactive. |
Robert Woods | @ARZ | $5,500 | 8% | - | «« | Positive TD regression candidate in plush matchup. |
Courtland Sutton | LAC | $5,800 | 7% | - | «« | Only semi-viable option in Denver passing game. Fade. |
Curtis Samuel | WAS | $4,800 | 4% | - | « | Stablemate Moore's recent success has hampered numbers |
Kelvin Harmon | @CAR | $3,600 | 1% | - | « | Cheap option on pass-heavy gamescript. Tough matchup. |
Robby Anderson | @CIN | $4,800 | 4% | - | « | Deep threat could certainly get behind susceptible DBs. |
Demaryius Thomas | @CIN | $3,600 | 7% | Yes | « | Cheap GPP flyer. Check Twitter to ensure Sunday status. |
Alex Erickson | NYJ | $3,800 | 2% | - | « | Averaged 17 PPG with Dalton at QB earlier this year. |
Marquise Brown | SF | $5,300 | 3% | - | « | Coming in hot off 2-TD game. Contends w/Sherman. |
Dede Westbrook | TB | $5,000 | 11% | - | « | Foles under center has made a difference for him. |
Chris Conley | TB | $4,500 | 8% | - | « | Sneaky GPP option. ~8 targets/game over past 5 contests. |
Nelson Agholor | @MIA | $4,400 | 3% | - | « | Miami is suspceptible to slot WRs--ask Jarvis Landry. |
DeVante Parker | PHL | $5,700 | 10% | - | « | A model of consistency each week. Favorable gamescript. |
Allen Hurns | PHL | $4,000 | 3% | - | « | Season-highs in targets/snaps last week. Nicely priced. |
Geronimo Allison | @NYG | $3,800 | 2% | - | « | Leverage play away from Adams/Jones/Williams ownership. |
Darius Slayton | GB | $5,300 | 4% | - | « | Giants have only one other receiver, but price is high. |
Odell Beckham | @PIT | $6,700 | 7% | - | « | Big play receiver needs to be in player pool every week. |
Jarvis Landry | @PIT | $6,400 | 7% | - | « | Priced up for consistency. Time to sell high and fade. |
Brandin Cooks | @ARZ | $5,200 | 3% | - | « | Lesser-owned option in Rams' receivering corps. |
Larry Fitzgerald | LAR | $5,100 | 2% | - | « | Steady, but being supplanted by Kirk for WR1 role. |
Christian Kirk | LAR | $5,700 | 11% | - | « | Likely gets Jalen Ramsey shadow, but still GPP-viable. |
Zay Jones | @KC | $3,600 | 1% | - | « | Loss of Hunter Renfrow elevates floor/upside. GPP flyer. |
Mike Williams | @DEN | $4,600 | 2% | - | « | Could get overflow volume from Allen-Harris shadow. |
WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:
CASH: Davante Adams is the chalk for both cash games and GPP formats on Sunday. DraftKings appears to have priced him at least $1K too cheaply given his marketshare of the Packers offense and the matchup against the Giants susceptible cornerbacks. Despite the high ownership across the industry, it is difficult to project Adams not delivering 3x value at his salary in this soft spot and you are, therefore, advised to make him a big part of your DFS portfolio on Sunday. After Adams, you are going to want to find value at the wide receiver position because an expensive quarterback with Christian McCaffrey and Adams is going to eat up nearly half of your allocated $50K salary. Luckily, there are reasonable options for cash games, including Sterling Shepard ($4.9K), Auden Tate ($4.0K), and Demaryius Thomas ($3.6K), all of whom should deliver close to 3x on their respective salaries. Shepard returns to a barren Giants' receiving corps that will be without Golden Tate, Evan Engram, and Rhett Ellison, making him the de facto #1 receiver in a game that should have Daniel Jones throwing throughout. Tate is the cheaper option on the Bengals offense who demonstrated a strong rapport with Andy Dalton when the two were active together earlier this year; his large (6'5") frame should also make him the preferred redzone option against the Jets. Lastly, Demaryius Thomas is far from sexy and is arguably the fourth option on his own offense, but the Jets have scored 34 points in 3 consecutive games and should have no issues doing similar against the Bengals' substandard defense on Sunday; Thomas needs only 5/50/0 to justify his place in your cash game lineups and he has done that in 3 of his previous 5 games.
GPP: After collecting 100+ yards in 4 of the Rams' first 5 games, Cooper Kupp has been quiet of late, with only 17.3 DK points across his previous 3 games. Despite his recent struggles, Kupp is still priced as an elite receiver, which is driving his ownership close to single-digits. On Sunday, Kupp gets a pristine matchup against the Cardinals, who have done nothing to stop slot receivers all season; with Patrick Peterson sticking exclusively to exterior receivers, Kupp is well-placed to rebound with a big performance at reasonable ownership levels. Alshon Jeffery is another receiver who is going overlooked by the masses at a reasonable salary. Jeffery is collecting ~ 25% of his team's targets and will be the primary Eagles receiver on a week where they have the second-highest implied team total on the Vegas boards. Sure, Jeffery has stumbled for much of the season, but this is a get-right spot against a terrible defense on a weekend where Zach Ertz is trending towards not suiting up. Rounding out the receivers for tournaments, I would be remiss if I did not address the game in Kansas City. The Raiders-Chiefs game has the highest Vegas total and features some of the biggest playmakers in the game. Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins both have posted multi-touchdown efforts this season and Tyrell Williams logged five consecutive games with a score to start the Raiders' 2019 campaign. Do not be afraid to eat the chalk with these players and run them together in gamestacks with their respective quarterbacks.
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Dallas Goedert | @MIA | $4,100 | 14% | - | «««« | Likely Ertz inactive increases his usage and upside. |
Tyler Higbee | @ARZ | $2,500 | 18% | Yes | «««« | Prime matchup vs. TE-friendly D. Everett = inactive. |
Travis Kelce | OAK | $7,200 | 11% | - | «««« | Highest upside player at his position. Premium salary. |
George Kittle | @BAL | $6,100 | 7% | - | ««« | Imposing spot vs. BAL, but has to be considered. |
Darren Waller | @KC | $5,500 | 9% | - | ««« | Could get additional slot routes without Renfrow. |
Noah Fant | LAC | $3,800 | 3% | - | ««« | Arguably the best overall option in the Denver offense. |
Greg Olsen | WAS | $4,400 | 4% | - | «« | Solid opportunity recently. TD-regression candidate. |
Jack Doyle | TEN | $3,300 | 16% | Yes | «« | Chalk. Effectively #1 Colts receiver at low price point. |
Mike Gesicki | PHL | $3,600 | 4% | - | «« | More usage since Preston Williams on IR. Scored in last. |
Kaden Smith | GB | $2,900 | 4% | - | «« | GB: 3rd-most FPs/game allowed to TE position. |
Ryan Griffin | @CIN | $4,300 | 3% | - | « | Price is getting prohibitive, but cannot ignore matchup. |
Jonnu Smith | @IND | $3,300 | 2% | - | « | Contrarian GPP option coming off goose-egg game. |
Mark Andrews | SF | $5,700 | 3% | - | « | Small % due to price and matchup (SF = 1st vs. TEs). |
Jimmy Graham | @NYG | $3,800 | 1% | - | « | Small piece to cover the excessive A.Rodgers exposure. |
Hunter Henry | @DEN | $3,700 | 4% | - | « | Likely underowned despite his usage and upside. |
TIGHT END TIDBITS:
CASH: The DFS community will be saving salary at tight end in cash games this weekend with a pair of tight ends who typically share their workloads with another stablemate: Jack Doyle and/or Tyler Higbee. Doyle will absorb all of the Colts' tight end routes after Eric Ebron was placed on injured reserve earlier this week, while Higbee will enjoy a similar workload with Gerald Everett missing this week's game with a knee injury. For Doyle, the outlook is positive because we have historical evidence that the Colts' tight end can deliver solid fantasy production when not sharing time with another player. In 2017/2018, both Doyle and Ebron delivered steady production when the other was not playing. Outside of Phoenix, Higbee will get a shot at the league's friendliest defense to his position--the Arizona Cardinals. In their previous three games, the Cards have allowed four touchdowns to the position, a trend that has endured throughout the year (12 touchdowns allowed to tight ends in 11 games). Higbee is the site-minimum price on DraftKings and will likely be owned in over half of cash game lineups for these reasons.
GPP: In Miami, Dallas Goedert merits consideration as a GPP option with the news on Saturday that the Eagles were signing another tight end for Sunday's matchup against the Dolphins. This probably means that Zach Ertz will be inactive and that Goedert will absorb the TE1 role against one of the league's worst defenses. The Eagles' tight end position is averaging over 12 targets per game and has brought in just shy of 1,000 receiving yards to this point in the season, staggering usage that makes Goedert's scoring ceiling as high as anybody at his position. Other high-end options for tournaments include Travis Kelce ($7.2K), George Kittle ($6.1K), and Darren Waller ($5.5K)--each brings two touchdown upside to your rosters and could go underowned due to the impending popularity of Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert, and Jack Doyle. Of the pricier options, Waller and Kelce are particularly attractive because they face off in the week's (projected) highest-scoring game.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Panthers | WAS | $3,800 | 9% | - | «««« | Haskins: Only 2 TDs versus 6 INTs = Upside. |
Redskins | @CAR | $2,500 | 3% | - | ««« | Panthers allow 5th-most sacks/game. GPP flyer. |
Jaguars | TB | $3,300 | 3% | - | ««« | Jameis' propensity to throw picks keep them relevant. |
Packers | @NYG | $3,400 | 4% | - | ««« | Loss of Tate & Engram improves outlook for Packers D. |
Browns | @PIT | $2,600 | 14% | Yes | ««« | 16 FPs vs. PIT 2 weeks ago. Bet against Duck Hodges. |
Chargers | @DEN | $3,100 | 5% | Yes | ««« | Unclear QB situation in DEN could be exploited. |
Ravens | SF | $2,800 | 9% | - | «« | Garoppolo's best games come against poor defenses. |
Eagles | @MIA | $3,600 | 10% | - | «« | Improving. Dolphins cut-rate offense is no threat. |
Rams | @ARZ | $3,200 | 3% | - | «« | Aaron Donald & Jalen Ramsey vs. rookie QB? Sure. |
Chiefs | OAK | $2,700 | 4% | - | «« | Raiders offense sputtering of late. KC: 2 weeks to prep. |
Broncos | LAC | $3,000 | 2% | - | «« | Solid defense at home vs. questionable LAC offense. |
Titans | @IND | $2,900 | 1% | - | « | Been getting after the QB effectively of late. |
49ers | @BAL | $3,000 | 2% | - | « | Rainy conditions could increase chances of turnovers. |
Steelers | CLE | $3,500 | 5% | - | « | Double-digit FPs in 8 of previous 9 games. |
TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:
CASH: Rolling with cheap defenses against unproven quarterbacks is the way to go for cash games (and possibly tournaments) this weekend. In Pittsburgh, Devlin Hodges will get the nod instead of Mason Rudolph because of Coach Tomlin's observation that Hodges "has not killed us." Those words can be construed any number of ways, most of which are negative. Hodges came in relief of Rudolph last week and quickly connected with James Washington for a 79-yard touchdown strike, but he was 4 of 10 for 39 passing yards thereafter, which is more indicative of what we might expect against the Browns on Sunday. In their last contest, these teams got after one another and you can bet that we will see an intense defensive struggle here; take the Browns defense and the discount against "Duck" Hodges. If that selection is not to your liking, feel free to slot in the Chargers against Brandon Allen, who is completing 46% of his passes and has managed only 3 touchdown passes in as many games since becoming a starter. The Chargers boast an underrated defense the features Joey Bosa and Casey Hayward, a pair of playmakers who could feasibly team up to force mistakes from the young Brandon Allen, which could pay dividends across multiple DFS formats.
GPP: Yes, Dwayne Haskins won his first NFL game last week against the Lions, but we should point out that he was not able to put together a single drive that resulted in a touchdown for the second time in three weeks--the Redskins scored on a kickoff return and tallied four field goals to log the win. In fact, Washington only collected 242 total yards on offense, the third straight week in which they were unable to surpass 300 total offensive yards with Haskins under center. Enter the Panthers, who have multiple sacks in every game since their season-opener and whose secondary has the third-most (13) interceptions on the season. Haskins has thrown 3x more interceptions than touchdown passes in his NFL career and this game projects to have him throwing often as a 10-point road underdog. Elsewhere, feel free to take a chance with the Jaguars against Jameis Winston, another interception-prone quarterback, and/or the Packers against Daniel Jones in a rainy game in the Meadowlands.