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The Top 10: Week 4

Matt Waldman opens his film notebook and examines the emerging stars, emergency replacements, and lingering concerns from Week 3.  

By Matt Waldman
September 23, 2019
The Top 10: Week 4
Photo: Jim Dedmon, USA Today Sports
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Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with the wrong process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 3 Cliff's Notes

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points:

  1. When it comes to the Browns' offense, there are a lot of valid targets to attribute fault. Even so, Baker Mayfield must learn to manage the pocket better—a problem that's existed well before his NFL career began.
  2. Mike Evans's performance against the Giants included a lot of work as an inside receiver, which is a growing trend with NFL offenses.
  3. The Rams ground game is adjusting to its opponents when they play six-man fronts. Expect better weeks for Todd Gurley.
  4. Daniel Jones executed a game plan that asked him to make minimal reads and use his legs. It's a good debut but there's a long way to go.
  5. Gardner Minshew's decision-making and manipulation of coverage at Washington State made him a potential starter, according my pre-draft scouting report.
  6. Devonta Freeman may be a little slower, but his footwork, vision, and burst remains strong enough, and Atlanta's offensive line is improving.
  7. LeSean McCoy still has his burst.
  8. Austin Hooper will be a double-digit scorer this year.
  9. David Johnson isn't earning much as a runner but his receiving and red-zone work should make him a sustainable fantasy RB2 in PPR leagues.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. Cardinals' safety D.J. Swearinger Sr, who has become a prime fantasy matchup for the league's tight ends.
    2. Seahawks' runner Chris Carson, who slipped three times and lost another fumble at the end of a long run.
    3. The 49ers offense for turning the ball over four times in the first half to the Steelers, including twice in the red zone.
    4. The Steelers offense for managing 99 yards and 6 points off the 49ers' four turnovers until 5:42 left in the third quarter.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Baker Mayfield Must Address His Pocket Mismanagement

I believe Baker Mayfield can become a good NFL quarterback. I haven't been completely sold on the idea that he will. Since I'm in the mood to confess about this young quarterback, any comparisons between Mayfield and Favre trigger my gag reflex as strongly as Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson.

There, I finally said it.

After the first three weeks of the season, most of the blame for the Browns' underachieving offense is focused on Freddie Kitchens and the offensive line. While they should own their share, let's not ignore Mayfield's reactive pocket management that has been a problem well before he entered the NFL.

Mayfield loves to break the pocket and throw on the move to his right. A lot of big plays have come as a result of Mayfield buying time in this manner. Against athletic and football-sound defenses, it has backfired.

Here's the accompanying analysis I wrote at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio site in 2017 about this tendency that I noticed multiple times on film:

Johnny Manziel, Russell Wilson, and Drew Brees are three quarterbacks I’ve seen as comparison points for Baker Mayfield. Whether or not I see merit in any of them is not yet important at this point — at least not until Mayfield demonstrates greater ownership of the pocket.

For many of you, this point seems counterintuitive to Mayfield’s reputation as a time-buying, improvisational wonder. I value Mayfield’s skill for navigating his way around pressure as both a runner and a passer. I have also seen him stand in the pocket and wait patiently for a route to break open.

However, if Mayfield is to emerge as a consistent and productive NFL passer, he’ll have to learn to maneuver the pocket with greater wisdom and awareness of his teammates. Otherwise, he’ll create pressure that didn’t exist and be the root source for difficult targets that could have been far easier.

This completion from the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game is an example of multiple film exposures where I’ve seen Mayfield drift unnecessarily in the pocket. Because movement has become a successful part of his game, correcting this issue may prove difficult until he tempers some of his freewheeling movement and incorporates the refined footwork of dropbacks and hitches.

I've been noting this issue with Mayfield since 2015. When there's a play, a series, a half, or games where quarterbacks get confused, they tend to regress to their immature habits of the past. These are some of the problems we still see from Mayfield when flustered at the moment:

  • He bypasses multiple opportunities to drive the ball to an open receiver within the structure of the play and opts to work outside the pocket.
  • He creates more difficult targets than necessary because of his decision-making and lack of confidence in his arm as a pure pocket passer.
  • He tends to abandon the pocket unnecessarily and often does so to his right.

When Mayfield isn't getting to work within his wheelhouse as a quarterback, he's late on throws where he takes an extra 1-2 beats for confirmation that it's open. As a result, he limits the potential outcome of the play and throws hospital balls to his receivers (ask David Njoku).

As Mayfield's career progressed at Oklahoma, I noted the same problem that Cris Collinsworth realized on Sunday night about Mayfield. He experiences difficulties making plays if he can't leave the pocket and he's forced to take longer than 2.5 seconds to throw the ball (he was 2-for-12 in these situations at the time Collinsworth broached the issue):

Based on the film I’ve studied up to this point, Mayfield is most accurate in the rhythm of a quick-hitting play with single reads where the manipulation of a defender is baked into the beginning of the play or when Mayfield abandons the pocket and runs scramble drills.

When forced create his own rhythm within the original structure of the play design because something —and in football, something often does —goes wrong, Mayfield struggles.

Here are some in-game examples of Mayfield's issues.

Mayfield is too reactive in the pocket if he's forced to move left or right from pressure. He can climb in rhythm and throw, but he doesn't slide a step or two to his left or right and reset quickly. He misses open receivers, creates pressure that blocked well enough for Mayfield to get rid of the ball, and magnifies the boom-bust nature of his game.

Although we've seen what happens when things work out, defenses have, too. They are adjusting and forcing Mayfield to be more strategic. So far, defenses are winning the war (wins-losses) and the majority of the battles (three touchdowns and five interceptions in three games).

Clearly, the offense can be better. The fact that Cleveland would spread the field in the red zone when they have Nick Chubb and they don't try to run the ball from that alignment is a questionable strategy.

Then again, the fact that they got rid of Kevin Zeitler and didn't replace him with anyone of quality to enhance this line tells me that there's too much buy-in to the idea that Mayfield can "Brett Favre" his way to victories.

Excuse me, I need some water...

Cleveland has the Ravens, Seahawks, the resurgent 49ers defense, and after a bye week, the Patriots strong unit during the next five weeks. This will be a trial by fire and there's still a chance the Broncos get it together by Week 9. If that's the case, Denver, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh (twice) between Weeks 9-13 could also be challenging.

If you're a conservative fantasy player, I'd bail on Mayfield as your primary quarterback and sell-low. There are too many issues, including his self-induced problems to remain as high on him as most of us were before the season.

2. Tampa's Scheme Unlocked Mike Evans With a College Tendency That's gaining NFL popularity

After watching Sunday's 146-yard, 3-touchdown performance, I suspect Tampa's mayor declared it Mike Evans Day before the game. It's the only reason I can imagine why the New York Giants shadowed Evans with little "Jack Rabbit," Ja'Noris Jenkins.

The Buccaneers responded to this ploy by using Evans as an inside receiver for most of the first half. Jenkins in outside leverage (Cover 3) plus one-high safety resulted in several big plays for Evans, including all three touchdowns.

I added the fourth-quarter reception because it's notable that it was the only catch Evans had in the second half. When targeted outside in this game, he didn't earn a reception.

The Buccaneers' strategy for Evans is a growing trend in the NFL for teams usage of its primary receivers. The Vikings, Falcons, Saints, Steelers, and Chargers all move their primary guy inside for several advantages:

  • Two-way-go situations that give the inherent advantage to the receiver.
  • Occasional mismatches with linebackers and safeties.
  • The ability to run deeper routes toward the sideline but with more initial room towards the boundary that makes life easier on the receiver and quarterback.

The Seahawks love to put their best receiver inside and sneak him to the corner or opposite boundary for a touch throw. Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson Jr were long-time recipients of these targets. Now, the beneficiary is Tyler Lockett.

Whether it's this year or next, begin looking into utilization data that reveals when and how often a receiver is placed in the slot or as an inside trips receiver. Also, look into how often a defense plays Cover 3 and if your receivers of choice have a lot of success with inside-breaking routes.

It will help your fantasy game.

3. The Rams Ground Game is adjusting to Defensive Counterattacks (A Todd Gurley Buy-low Opportunity)

Todd Gurley's career is dying! Todd Gurley's career is dying! Todd Gurley's ca-...

Shut up and buy-low. Gurley is currently No.25 in PPR leagues heading into Monday Night of Week 3. No doubt that four catches for eight yards is un-Gurley-like. A 4.6 yards-per-carry average is not.

Why is Gurley not earning touches in the receiving game? The Wide-Tackle 6 defensive alignments that opponents are using against the Rams.

Paraphrasing Kenny Ratledge's great book, "Developing A Defensive Game Plan," the Wide-Tackle 6 Defense is an eight-man front where the six down-linemen are labeled as ends, tackles, and guards. The defensive guards play over the offensive guards and the defensive tackles and defensive ends play over the offensive tackles and tight ends.

This front puts the defense at an advantage to stop wide runs like the Rams' outside zone, bootleg passes, jet sweeps, reverses, and off-tackle plays. As you can imagine, screen passes to the flats aren't good ideas against this look, either.

The Patriots employed this look in the Super Bowl after examining the Lions' success against the Rams' screen game late in the 2018 season. Since then, we haven't seen the Rams make wholesale adjustments to its offense.

Personally, I wonder why the Rams spent much of the first half trying to win against this front with plays that don't match well against it. I know many of you have asked this question in some form.

My best guess is that McVay believed the Rams had the talent and preparation advantage against a Browns defense that was missing every starter in the secondary. Superior talent and execution can often beat a well-schemed obstacle.

As we saw, the Rams didn't succeed in this respect. Once the second half began, the Rams adjusted. The Wide-Tackle 6 is strong at the edges but weak inside because there's usually a 3-on-1 advantage for interior offensive linemen to defensive linemen and only one linebacker in that area as well.

The Rams made the correct adjustments and we saw Gurley earn productive touches up the middle during its first drive of the second half.

Although middle screens might be a viable solution against this look and give Gurley more opportunities as a receiver, the most likely targets that would get Gurley involved would have to be vertical routes up the seams or routes angling inside. So far, they haven't happened. However, we also didn't see the Rams make adjustments like they did to the run game until last night.

Gurley only gained 43 yards on 14 carries on Sunday night. However, he gained 33 of that total in the second half and if ruling out the two negative plays, his gross positive yardage was 39 yards on 7 touches.

Gurley may not be an RB1 this year but if your league's attitude towards Gurley is dour, you could get a bargain RB2.

4. Daniel Jones's Debut

Any time a rookie quarterback is a significant reason that his team won his debut as a starter, it's a successful weekend. Jones showed off his arm, his mobility, and his pocket toughness en route to a comeback victory against a Buccaneers squad that had the Giants' jackrabbit dangerously close to a boiling pot of stew (see Mike Evans section).

But is he a fantasy starter? The box score-dependent among us will reflexively point to the 23-36, 336-yard, 4-touchdown performance and declare him fit for fantasy lineups everywhere.

Considering the Giants defensive woes and the loss of Saquon Barkley to a high ankle sprain, they're not wrong. Daniel Jones is a viable fantasy starter with some caveats. It's important to realize that the Giants did not require Jones to perform like a veteran NFL quarterback.

Since the preseason, Jones' work has been limited to designed plays with a predetermined read. While there is an embedded check-down, the plays also encourage Jones to run or throw the ball away if that first option isn't available. We're not seeing a lot of three- and four-read progressions with full-field looks and manipulation of the coverage beyond what's embedded into the play design.

Still, this works when your quarterback will take punishment to deliver the football. Jones does this as well as anyone—the punishment part of the equation, that is...

There's good work here. However, it's not the type of output that will hold up well when defenses game plan against Jones and he has to audible or be on the same page with his receivers on option routes. These are things Eli Manning would be asked to do that Jones won't be doing much.

They're also areas where Jones "showed some skill" in college but not consistently enough to call it a strength. It was often a source of his failures on a play-to-play basis.

The plays here are designed to get rid fo the ball fast and also sell something Jones has that Manning lacks—skill as a runner.

Expect future opponents to take better angles against Jones, who is quick but not an elite runner. When Jone struggles—this game and his college career—is from the pocket when his first read fails to come open. He holds onto the ball too long, he doesn't account for coverage in the area of his target that he stares down, and he's not accurate enough downfield when precision is required—especially on second- and third-read throws.

Jones is off to a good start with the Giants. However, there's nothing about what he's shown that dispels what I observed about him pre-draft. He'll undoubtedly generate great excitement among fans and those who need a fantasy quarterback to make dreams of a good season come true.

I'll just remind you that Marcus Mariota, Vince Young, Mitchell Trubisky, Blake Bortles, Jake Locker, and many others also generated similar excitement. So did Jones's opponent...

If you're in need of a re-draft quarterback, Jones's current skills should make him an effective garbage-time starter with strong weeks. If you're asking me whether he's a dynasty option or everything Pat Shurmur and Dave Gettleman think they've acquired, I'm still not convinced.

5. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP's) Pre-Draft EValuation of Gardner Minshew

I'm sold more on Gardner Minshew than I am Jones. Always have been. You can read the entirety of my Minshew scouting report from the Rookie Scouting Portfolio at the RSP site. Here are some of the key details that point to Minshew becoming a viable contributor in the NFL for years to come:

Despite appearances, Minshew is a lot closer to the top of this tier than the bottom. If he can improve his ability to deliver with accuracy after maneuvering from pressure, he’s a lot closer to being at the bottom of the first tier than the bottom of the second tier.

Minshew will easily carve up a defense if he’s allowed to maintain a consistent rhythm and tempo from the pocket. Minshew’s decision-making is among the best in this class. One of the things that stand out is his ability to vary the depth and order of progressions based on the defensive alignment. He’ll also return to early progression reads if there’s time after he’s exhausted the original order.

Opponents have a tough time reading him. I like how Minshew can open his body to the flat, appear as if he’s delivering the ball up the seam, and then bring the ball down and turn back to the flat for a quick and accurate completion. He can execute these sequences in a tight pocket.

He picks up blitzes but also disguises his intentions until the last possible moment of his setup and release. His ability to hold safeties and flat defenders is a true strength of his game. He often displays patience to wait a little longer for a route to break open against zone coverage if that’s what’s needed. He then places the ball where only the receiver can make a play.

His feel in the pocket is excellent. He maintains his throwing stance as he reads multiple areas of the field while in a compressed and crowded pocket. He has a strong sense of timing to escape the pocket, find his outlet receiver, or throw the ball away.

Minshew will even set up defenders by behaving as if he’s about to break the pocket and then fire the ball to the opening behind the pressure. Or, he’ll climb the pocket— sucking the defense inside—and then throw on the move to the flat, leading the outlet receiver into open space.

The final frontier of decision-making for Minshew to master is making optimal pre- and post-snap diagnosis. Although he’s skilled at using pre-snap motion to identify coverage holes, he will occasionally miss pre-snap intelligence that would lead him to find the easiest solution. Instead, Minshew will target receivers who have to do more work to earn the same result.

If Minshew’s physical skills were on par with his mental and conceptual game, he’d be the best prospect in this class. However, a lot of his flaws are the result of a heady player whose reach exceeds his grasp. He spots solutions in the moment, but he lacks the athletic ability or technique to execute them. Some of these issues will be easier to address than others.

“When things get harried,” is really the theme of Minshew’s game and developmental needs if he wants to become a starter. If he can slow his mind and develop more ingrained footwork and ball security habits at fast tempos and under pressure, he could become a good NFL starter in a system that doesn’t require him to be a power-thrower.

If he doesn’t, he’ll have a career as a backup who will be in demand for his football smarts.

Minshew may not maintain his starting job when Nick Foles returns, but he's absolutely worth your investment while Foles is out—and beyond in dynasty leagues.

6. Is Devonta Freeman a Sell-Low?

The short answer is "yes," but the longer answer is, "it's complicated." I've seen some of my colleagues tell readers that Freeman has lost his athletic ability. Let's parse that athletic ability into actionable categories, beginning with long speed.

The second wave of defenders—a linebacker—that he creased on this play runs him down. If you remember Freeman being faster, then he's slower now.

However, Freeman was never fast. He's a quick runner lacking a top gear.

What should be notable about this play is that his acceleration looks fine. If he's reaching the secondary, he's quick enough through the hole. The fact that Atlanta's offensive line generated this crease against a healthy defensive line is a good sign because the unit struggled Week 1 and improved steadily throughout Week 2.

We've established Freeman remains quicker than fast. Does he still have excellent change-of-direction speed and sharp footwork?

Yes, he does. He also still sets up blocks effectively and breaks tackles in the open field. If you're keeping score...

  • Long speed? Never.
  • Initial acceleration? Still there, although possibly a little slower than before.
  • Footwork? Good.
  • Vision? Good.
  • Runs hard and attacks defenders? Good.
  • Breaks tackles in the open field? Yes.

Initial acceleration is my only worry. From what I recall, this run below might have had a different outcome in year's past.

Still, I'm not ready to sell low on Freeman. At worst, he'll be a savvy, Peyton Barber-like player with a better offensive line and superior quarterback. That's good enough for a viable flex role. Use him for the Tennessee game because Ito Smith will likely miss the week. Then, try to sell him as a low-end RB2 with Arizona and the Rams on the schedule.

I doubt I'll be getting any bites but I know your leagues are often different than mine, so give it a try. If you're stuck with Freeman, he remains quality depth with match-up value. If the Falcons line continues improving, you may find yourself with a strong RB2 despite debatable loss of quickness.

7. LeSean McCoy's Burst

McCoy has definitely retained his burst.

Remember, he did this on a bad ankle on a slippery surface. McCoy is an old-school football player with new-school moves. Ride him if you've got him.

8. Austin Hooper Will be a Double-Digit Touchdown Scorer

The No.6 PPR tight end after three weeks, Hooper's arrow is pointing up after a two-touchdown performance against the Colts. The reason is surrounding talent and Dirk Koetter's scheme, which is using Hooper better than his past offensive coordinators.

Hooper has been a steady riser with the Falcons, making the Pro Bowl last year. Matt Ryan trusts him more with each passing year and the 2019 schedule has some choice matchups, including the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Titans, and Seahawks.

Even the tougher matchups should have enhanced potential relative to other tight ends because of the Falcons' weaponry that can create excellent matchups for Hooper in the red zone. Koetter's offenses generated 11 touchdowns for its starting tight end tandem last year, 12 in 2017, and 8 alone from Cameron Brate in 2016.

It's also likely that you won't have to pay a premium for Hooper compared to the big names or emerging athletes who are ranked above him.

9. DAVID JOHNSON'S REST-OF-THE-SEASON OUTLOOK

The Cardinals can't run the ball. Not in the traditional, run-at-the-defense sort of way. When they do so, their linemen lack the advantage.

Arizona has more success when they trick you with misdirection.

As Ted Ngyuen of the Athletic commented on this post, it's a cool play. It's also a sign that the Cardinals have to work harder than many teams to get Johnson a crease and that's not cool for fantasy football.

The Cardinals are 22nd in fantasy points scored at the position. They are 27th in rushing yards at the position and 30th in rushing attempts. The receiving game is keeping Arizona from hitting rock bottom—16th in yards and tied for 1st in receiving touchdowns.

Johnson is on pace for 1,100 total yards, 69 receptions, and 16 touchdowns. As we should all be, I'm more optimistic about him reaching or slightly exceeding this yardage projection. I'd be thrilled if Johnson earns half of the touchdown total.

If he meets 1,100 total yards and 8 touchdowns, he's still in top-15 territory, even a potential a low-end RB1. I'm skeptical. The Cardinals have red-zone woes. Kyler Murray is still losing yards instead of throwing the ball out of bounds when he's forced from the pocket in this part of the field. And, the Cardinals offensive line is more likely to suffer additional injuries than get healthy down the stretch.

My ears are growing deaf to talk of a Johnson resurgence under Kliff Kingsbury this year.

10. FRESH FISH: Week 3

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: D.J. Swearinger Sr

The Cardinals' safety has been the gift that keeps on giving to opposing tight ends—ask T.J. Hockenson and Greg Olsen.

Let's move onto additional specimens from the fish market:

  • Chris Carson: His second week on the list, Carson has fumbled three times this year after only three fumbles in three years. He also lost his balance on three runs, including one where he slipped at the edge of a huge crease. He'll likely earn 1-2 more weeks to fix the fumbling problem before Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise earn extended time.
  • 49ers Offense: Jimmy Garoppolo delivered a pair of press-induced interceptions and muffed a snap in the red zone. Raheem Mostert also fumbled away a drive during a first-half where the 49ers gave up the ball four times against an aggressive and hard-hitting Steelers defense.
  • Steelers Offense: Fortunately for the 49ers, the Steelers offense converted those four turnovers into 99 yards of offense and 6 points until 5:42 left in the third quarter when Mason Rudolph found JuJu Smith-Schuster on a 76-yard pass and Pittsburgh still lost the game.

Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

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