Guiding DFS Tournament Principles
There are three keys to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Lastly, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target.
Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.
1. Good Chalk
Patrick Mahomes II (14%) Mahomes is a force of nature and quarterbacks never end up as chalky as other positions.
David Montgomery (36%) Montgomery is the clear RB1 on the slate. Not only has his per touch production been elite over the last month but he has seen a huge increase in usage. The slate lacks sure things at the position, so it is a good move to just lock Montgomery in as your top back.
Calvin Ridley (23%) The Falcons are going to have to be pass-heavy against the Chiefs and no wide receiver projects for more volume than Ridley when Julio Jones is sidelined.
Travis Kelce (21%) Since Week 8, Kelce has scored more fantasy points than the next two highest-scoring tight ends on the slate combined. No need to overthink this.
2. Building unique lineups without sacrificing floor
Giovani Bernard (3%) It is a bit surprising Bernard is not expected to be more popular given his big Monday Night Football performance and the fantastic matchup against the Texans. The volume should be there and the price is right ($6,000).
Russell Gage (7%) While Ridley understandably gets all of the attention, Gage also should continue to see a lot of targets with Julio Jones out. It is rare to get a player who projects for 8+ targets in the sub-6K range and less than 10%.
3. Getting ahead of the pack with young, high-upside players
Jalen Hurts (7%) Part of getting ahead of the pack is not getting scared away from small sample size success if you feel it is not fluky. Hurts has massive rushing upside.
Tee Higgins (11%) With Tyler Boyd sidelined, Higgins should get plenty of chances to make plays against the Texans. Brandon Allen at quarterback limits the upside to some extent but it is worth gambling that Higgins can finish out a strong rookie campaign in style.
Noah Fant (10%) Fant had a breakout performance last week. We may see the second-year tight end emerge over the last few weeks as one of the future stars at the position and Denver would love to see Fant end the season on a high note with a couple more huge games.
Quarterback
Most weeks, we probably need our quarterback to score 30+ points to take down a tournament. It is really hard to put up 30+ without getting some of those points on the ground. Look at the Top 5 Quarterbacks in Week 15:
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