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The Gut Check No.512: Waldman's 2020 Draft Tiers

Matt Waldman's The Gut Check No.512: Waldman's 2020 Draft Tiers
By Matt Waldman, September 3, 2020

The Gut Check No.512: Waldman's 2020 Draft Tiers
Photo: USA Today Sports

It's Time...

I've written enough about players this summer. I have comments on almost every ranking. The Upside designation for the players in the Draft Dominator and Top 250? I write those.

And, there are all the Gut Check articles from this summer. You should know where I stand with most of these players. Let's put the pieces of the puzzle together.

How the Tiers Work

The tiers are based on 12-team PPR formats. I will not be doing a non-PPR tier.

The Obvious: Each tier is ordered based on the ADPs of players.

  • First Tier: Rounds 1-2
  • Second Tier: Rounds 3-5
  • Third Tier: Rounds 6-8
  • Fourth Tier: Rounds 9-11
  • Fifth Tier: Rounds 12-15

The No-So-Obvious: The players within each tier are not ranked in the order that I prefer them. They are ranked close to a mid-August Average Draft Position (ADP).

The Significance of "Round?": The Round (Rnd) is either where that player is getting drafted or my calculated "sweet spot" between my value of that player and his ADP. You'll either notice a straightforward number (1 = first round, 2 = second round, etc.) or you will see initials and numbers combined.

  • E1 = Early portion of the first round.
  • M1 = Middle part of the first round.
  • L1 = Late part of the first round.
  • M2/L3 = The sweet spot for that player, depending where you draft is between the middle of the second and late part of the third round.
  • Rd 16-20 = The range of the player's ADP is wide enough in the later rounds that you should plan to draft him between rounds 16-20.

These sweet spot estimations are exactly that...estimations. If you value the player as I do or more, you may want to draft him earlier if you look at these tiers and decide you like 2-3 players from one tier and could acquire more of them if you deviate from ADP conventions and build a reach or two into your plan.

After the First Tier there are tables to the right of the rest of the tiers with names from previous tiers: That's right, these players listed to the right are players from previous tiers whose sweet-spot values are lower than their tier. It means I value these players significantly higher than your ADP and you can get them later.

In other words, it's merely a reminder that these players from higher tiers should earn the highest priority of consideration if you agree or trust my valuation of them.

What about players with "Round" values higher than the tier they're in? These are players where I ranked them slightly lower than their tier but I value their upside enough to keep them off the No-Fly List.

In this case, I'm hoping they fall to me a little lower than my projected round valuation of where to take them. A good example of Dak Prescott. Prescott could get selected as early as the fifth round but I'd prefer not to take him at least until the sixth round.

What's this No-Fly List?

I wrote an article about my 2020 No-Fly List of players that I won't be considering for drafts unless they fall well below I could reasonably project their drop in value. Here's my current list so you can decide whether you want to add them back into these tiers on your own.

The "Rnd" is the round where I would have valued them. "MW" is my exact value. "ADP" is Average Draft Position. And "Diff." is the difference between my value and ADP.

I create a curve so the deeper we get into the draft, the wider the difference between my value and the ADP had to be for these players to wind up on this No-Fly List.

One Last Thing about the list: I will add many of these players back into my own draft plans based on slight changes to scoring or lineup formats that use more than one quarterback, four receivers, and three running backs. 1.5 PPR scoring for tight ends would also lead me to put the tight ends on this list back into my draft plan.

Players that I will often consider in my draft plans against top competition where I will employ less conventional builds are in bold on this list. My tiers are designed to be safer than the crazy things with my draft plans against fantasy writers or in highly competitive leagues.

Waldman's 2020 No-Fly List

Rnd P First Last MW ADP Diff.
1 RB Miles Sanders 14 11 -3
3 RB Joe Mixon 27 12 -15
3 WR DeAndre Hopkins 29 13 -16
4 QB Lamar Jackson 40 20 -20
4 RB Todd Gurley 42 27 -15
5 QB Patrick Mahomes 48 16 -32
5 WR D.J. Moore 54 28 -26
5 RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire 56 9 -47
5 RB Aaron Jones 57 23 -34
6 WR Cooper Kupp 64 39 -25
6 WR Odell Beckham 70 36 -34
8 RB Devin Singletary 92 49 -43
9 RB Cam Akers 95 62 -33
9 WR Diontae Johnson 97 40 -57
10 RB Kareem Hunt 117 65 -52
11 RB Matt Breida 124 87 -37
11 WR Will Fuller 125 85 -40
12 TE Hunter Henry 132 83 -49
12 RB Jordan Howard 133 87 -46
12 TE Evan Engram 139 70 -69
12 RB Zack Moss 140 103 -37
13 RB D'Andre Swift 150 58 -92
12 RB Tevin Coleman 143 108 -35
14 WR Jamison Crowder 156 116 -40
14 WR Mecole Hardman 163 128 -35
14 RB Latavius Murray 167 109 -58
15 RB Marlon Mack 171 98 -73
15 RB J.K. Dobbins 173 72 -101

As you can see, all of these players in bold are running backs or quarterbacks. If you're adopting some form of an Upside-Down/Zero RB strategy, these options should be in your tiers.

What About Players You Especially Like In Each Tier

I will have their row in bold. Just because I have the player's row in bold, it doesn't mean I like them better than great options in the first round. For instance, I like Josh Jacobs. I'm suggesting you consider him in the mid-to-late first if you have a draft plan that supports this idea or be thrilled you can get him in the early-to-middle of the second round.

I'm not telling you to draft him ahead of the elite backs.

First Tier

Tier Rnd Pos First Last Thoughts
I 1 RB Christian McCaffrey Safe choice, scheme independent, high upside.
I 1 RB Alvin Kamara Strong supporting cast and high upside.
I 1 RB Saquon Barkley High-volume back with highs and lows that should even out in most cases.
I 1 RB Ezekiel Elliott Strong supporting cast, high upside, scheme independent, Safest back on the board.
I M1/L1 RB Josh Jacobs There's a bigger opportunity for 50-60 catches this year than many think.
I 1 WR Michael Thomas Strong supporting cast, high upside, and high baseline volume.
I 1 RB Dalvin Cook I love the talent, supporting cast, and volume potential. Not in love with his durability history.
I L1 RB Derrick Henry I'd probably take Henry ahead of Cook or opt for a receiver.
I L1 WR Mike Evans Easy choice for an early-round receiver.
I L1/E2 WR Tyreek Hill Won't argue Evans-Hill-Adams with you. Take who you like.
I L1/E2 RB Nick Chubb Kareem Hunt doesn't concern me. Rock-solid, safe choice. Nice pick at 1/2 turn.
I L1/E2 WR Davante Adams Volume and quarterback make this skillful option an elite producer.
I 2 WR Julio Jones Great player but every game seems like "is this the week" he can't return from the sideline?
I 2 WR Chris Godwin The most versatile receiver on a loaded offense who will earn volume and variety of targets.
I 2 RB Miles Sanders Week-to-week with an injury, so I'm adding him to the No Fly-List.
I 2 RB Austin Ekeler I love the talent but there's a boom-bust element to his role this year. Could pay off; could be painful.
I 2 TE Travis Kelce Safest early option at the position due to offense and rapport with great quarterback.
I 2 RB Kenyan Drake A boom-bust option who excited down the stretch. Higher ceiling and lower floor than Ekeler.
I M2/L2 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster The Steelers offense has the supporting talent to make this a better pick than what I thought in '19.
I L2/E3 RB James Conner The best value of the running backs in this tier who could be your second (or third) pick.
I L2/M3 WR A.J. Brown Should be available as your second receiver and/or third option. Special talent.

Second Tier

Tier Rnd Pos First Last Thoughts First Last Pos Tier Rnd Thoughts
II 3 RB Chris Carson Good back with the offense and surrounding talent to continue thriving. James Conner RB I L2/E3 See above.
II E3 RB Leonard Fournette Receiving volume will be cut in half but still less line dependent than many characterize. Move to Tier V below Darrell Henderson if you believe he'll be the situational committee option. Keep him here if you believe he will take over. I believe he's a high-upside committee guy and have him ranked closer to Tier V A.J. Brown WR I L2/M3 See above.
II 3 WR Kenny Golladay Strong surrounding talent and schemed open but not a traditional Alpha option.
II 3 WR Amari Cooper Michael Gallup didn't make life easier on Cooper and Cooper still thrived. CeeDee Lamb will.
II 3 WR Allen Robinson Like Cooper, the Bears scheme Robinson open enough from the slot that he's a safe pick this early.
II 3 RB LeVeon Bell The Jets struggles obscured Bell's talent that's still there. Barely on my list but still skilled enough to respect potential.
II 3 WR Calvin Ridley Rock-solid second or third receiver.
II M3 TE George Kittle If he falls this far, he's worth nabbing.
II M3/E4 RB David Johnson If you're going for three backs early or starting in the third or fourth with a UDD/Zero RB plan, he's worth consideration.
II L3/E4 WR Robert Woods I appreciate versatile, smart, and technically-sound receivers. Woods is quintessentially these things.
II E4/M5 WR D.J. Chark Chark's production may not grow but I'm not expecting much of a regression.
II M4 TE Zach Ertz I think you can get better value at the position, but he's the third of the three safest at the position in the early rounds.
II 4 RB Melvin Gordon Good-but-not-great back with some OL issues working with a potential Austin Ekeler type of talent in Phillip Lindsay. Prefer as a UDD/Zero RB back more than other looks.
II 4 WR Adam Thielen If the offense weren't as run heavy, I'd love him. He a safe pick, but I like others in this tier more.
II 4 RB Jonathan Taylor There's a slightly lower floor than some will be comfortable with due to blocking and ball security concerns but he's a terrific runner who should earn the feature role (and RB1 value) by Weeks 4-6.
II 4 WR Tyler Lockett Big-play value and efficiency in one receiver is difficult to find after the first two rounds. I think he's safer than Chark and up there with Brown, Cooper, and Woods in terms of reliability and upside.
II 4 WR Keenan Allen Love the player, hate the transition this offense will undergo.
II L4/E5 WR D.K. Metcalf Lockett is a multitool whereas Metcalf is a hammer. And he's a damn good hammer.
II L4/M5 RB Ronald Jones I'm sold on Jones as top-24 RB value this year and he'll still earn the first shot as the lead runner. Fournette is a high-upside redudancy plan for a team that lacked another natural gap runner with power. Still, I understand if Fournette scares you off because the vet is too good to ignore his potential to earn the job of Jones falters.
II E5/M5 TE Darren Waller The receiving corps being potentially better doesn't alter what Waller does so well. If anything, it heightens the mismatch potential for him. Easy pick.
II E5/M5 WR Stefon Diggs Excellent talent in a boom-bust situation.
II M5 WR DeVante Parker Parker has worked hard to resolve what plagued him earlier in his career. Although it took a while, I believe he'll have another strong campaign.
II 5 QB Deshaun Watson I love Mahomes and Jackson (you know I do), but there are better values this year in most leagues. Watson just makes the list as being worth his ADP. I'd still hold off on him.
II 5 RB Raheem Mostert There isn't a 49ers running back whose skills threaten Mostert's opportunity to earn the lead role this year. If injuries strike the depth chart, he has top-12 upside.
II 5 WR Terry McLaurin Might still be the only game in town for this passing offense.
II 5 TE Mark Andrews Safe, smart, and productive.
II 5 WR T.Y. Hilton Boom-bust potential. Age/injuries are the bust; pairing with Rivers is the boom.
II 5 WR Courtland Sutton Solid WR2-WR3 for a fantasy team with WR1 weeks.
II E9/E10 WR Emmanuel Sanders Keep Sanders in mind as a potential fantasy WR3 with WR2 upside you can draft much later as you're building your team in this stage of the draft.
II E7/E8 WR CeeDee Lamb See the commend on Sanders above.

Third Tier

Tier Rnd Pos First Last Thoughts First Last Pos Tier Rnd Thoughts
III E5/M5 QB Dak Prescott If Prescott falls to the sixth or seventh round, he's worth taking. Elite upside with mid-range QB1 baseline. Emmanuel Sanders WR II E9/E10 See above.
III E6/M6 RB David Montgomery I've seen enough backs to know that they often process quicker in Year 2 and look quicker. This could happen with Montgomery but don't love the quarterback situation unless he falls here. CeeDee Lamb WR II E7/E8 See above.
III 6 QB Kyler Murray A good talent who should play to this value. In a COVID-19 environment, you may want to give consdieration to his scrambling due to worst-case considerations with OL play.
III 6 RB Mark Ingram Ingram's skill clouds the picture for J.K. Dobbins more than Marlon Mack for Jonathan Taylor. If I'm drafting a block of mid-round backs, I'll still consider Ingram.
III 6 QB Russell Wilson Safest quarterback in fantasy? Possibly. Certainly, one of my career-long favorites with an offense to support career-production.
III 6 WR A.J. Green The hamstring tweak will scare off those already skittish about taking Green, but the injury shouldn't be the problem that the superstitious fear.
III 6 WR Julian Edelman Should challege for team lead in receiving.
III M6 QB Tom Brady Don't expect record-production, but an elite fantasy season is still a massive likelihood.
III L6/E7 QB Drew Brees I prefer Brady to Wilson and Brees, but with the values I see at WR, I'm taking two of the three passers back-to-back in many drafts.
III L6/E7 TE Tyler Higbee Boom-bust option only due to slight uncertainty with direction of the Rams offense.
III 7 WR Tyler Boyd Safest option in Cincinnati and in this tier.
III 7 WR Michael Gallup Benefits from Amari Cooper, may see some of last year's upside capped by Lamb.
III 7 WR Brandin Cooks Safe player in a tier that may make him underrated for a change.
III 7 WR Marquise Brown High-upside pick. Will be in great demand.
III 7 QB Matt Ryan Solid choice if you miss on the Wilson, Brady, Brees trio.
III 7 WR Curtis Samuel Another high-upside pick in great demand. I want proof before I speculate on him.
III 7 WR Jarvis Landry Safe starter in this range.
III M7/M8 RB Kerryon Johnson Boom-bust option with strong competition.
III L7/L8 QB Matthew Stafford High-upside play who makes a great pairing with any of the quarterbacks listed ahead of him.
III 8 QB Aaron Rodgers Still a great quarterback with high upside but not elite upside in this offense without injuries forcing Rodgers to throw more than the plan.
III 8 WR Marvin Jones Still a Waldman favorite and if you want to wait 1-2 rounds for your second quarterback after Wilson or Brady, Jones is a good reason why.
III 8 TE Rob Gronkowski Another good reason to wait on that second quarterback and perhaps even more compelling if you draft Brady.
III M8 WR Christian Kirk Safe WR3.
III 8 QB Josh Allen As a QB2 who could still earn red-zone rushing scores, Allen's past rushing production inflated his fantasy value. Not sure Zack Moss' presence will support it again. Barely on my list.
III 8 WR Deebo Samuel Good young player who will earn designed looks to get him the ball early and often.
III 8 RB Tarik Cohen Talent in a boom-bust situation.
III E9/E10 QB Ben Roethlisberger A strong alternative to Brees or Stafford as your second QB. An astute QB for those willing to take chance he stays healthy.
III E9/E10 TE T.J. Hockenson The ankle injury is still at least an emotional hurdle for Hockenson, but he's practicing and performing well. If the injury becomes a non-issue, I'd make him a favorite this year.
III L10/L11 QB Ryan Tannehill Played well enough to give benefit as a strong QB2 who could repeat QB1 production but has a low floor.
III L10/L11 WR Sammy Watkins I'm on an island with my optimistic value of Watkins. It's a bet against Mecole Hardman. Low floor, high upside.
III M9/M10 QB Jared Goff QB1 upside and if you're rolling with Ben Roethlisberger as your QB1, Goff or Tannehill are solid options as your second QB if you go back-to-back.
III E14/E15 QB Gardner Minshew Minshew is a high-risk, high-reward QB2 with the young weapons (and his own pocket skills and growing game) to play beyond that range.


Fourth Tier

Tier Rnd Pos First Last Thoughts First Last Pos Tier Rnd Thoughts
IV M8 RB James White Brady helped make him, but Cam Newton can sustain him enough for flex production. Emmanuel Sanders WR II E9/E10 See above.
IV 9 WR Jerry Jeudy Viable WR2 this year in fantasy with rookie price tag. Ben Roethlisberger QB III E9/E10 See above.
IV 9 RB Phillip Lindsay Wider range of Austin Ekeler's upside and floor at a discount. T.J. Hockenson TE III E9/E10 See above.
IV 9 WR Darius Slayton Performed well but with three receivers returning to health, will he still be the man? Jared Goff QB III M9/M10 See above.
IV 9 WR Justin Jefferson A smart rookie with WR2 upside but think more of as a flex option this year. Sammy Watkins WR III L10/L11 See above.
IV 9 QB Cam Newton You could do worse if opting for a QBBC approach. Ryan Tannehill QB III L/10/L11 See above.
IV 9 QB Daniel Jones His pocket awareness is problematic. but he could be a Bortles-like, garbage-time special. Gardner Minshew QB III E14/E15 See above.
IV M9 TE Hayden Hurst Solid option here but unlikely the upgrade for the red-zone at the position that many hope.
IV M9/M10 QB Carson Wentz If you believe in his durability improving, which means you believe he won't be so reckless, he's a value here.
IV 10 TE Jared Cook Excellent choice here. High ceiling and high floor.
IV M10/M11 WR Preston Williams Value will rise with good health reports.
IV L10/M11 RB Adrian Peterson Antonio Gibson? Bryce Love? Maybe next year. Peterson still has "this year" left in him.
IV L10/M11 WR Golden Tate Solid WR-Flex.
IV 11 QB Baker Mayfield Scheme should help with deficiencies. Upside may not be there due to scheme. Boom-bust QBBC.
IV M11/M12 RB A.J. Dillon Could easily deliver what many hope from Jonathan Taylor and J.K. Dobbins if Aaron Jones gets hurt. Should have a flex-play floor regardless.
IV L11/L12 QB Teddy Bridgewater Match-up play in QBBC.
IV L11/L12 QB Jimmy Garoppolo Match-up play in QBBC.
IV L11/L12 QB Kirk Cousins Match-up play in QBBC.
IV E12/E13 TE Dallas Goedert TE2 floor with elite TE1 upside.
IV E12/13 QB Drew Lock Boom-Bust option with QBBC value.
IV E12 RB Boston Scott Could deliver RB2 production early this year with Sanders week-to-week. Should be a flex-play all year. Expect him to get bumped 1-3 rounds due to Sanders injury.
IV M12-M13 WR Denzel Mims Hamstring may deflate value 2-3 rounds. Boom-bust option.
IV L12/L13 QB Philip Rivers Solid QBBC play with standalone upside.
IV M13/M14 TE Blake Jarwin Likely pedestrian.
IV L13/M14 WR Breshad Perriman WR2 upside with a flex floor if Jets disintegrate.
IV M14/M15 WR Larry Fitzgerald Why not? His teammates could create consistent matchup advantages.
IV L14/L15 WR Anthony Miller Breakout candidate.
IV L14/L15 QB Sam Darnold Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Point-per-reception strategy Cam Akers Josh Allen Josh Allen Keenan Allen Devin Asiasi Eno Benjamin Miles Boykin Antonio Brown Harrison Bryant Amari Cooper Mike Davis Stefon Diggs AJ Dillon J.K. Dobbins Bryan Edwards Austin Ekeler Michael Gallup Antonio Gandy-Golden Antonio Gibson Josh Gordon Mecole Hardman Jr. Kareem Hunt Carlos Hyde Josh Jacobs Aaron Jones CeeDee Lamb Phillip Lindsay Marlon Mack Zack Moss Cam Newton Albert Okwuegbunam Qadree Ollison DeVante Parker Dak Prescott Ben Roethlisberger Irv Smith Jr. Jonathan Taylor Tyrod Taylor Robert Tonyan Jr Adam Trautman Sammy Watkins

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