What does it mean for a player to “make your draft” ? It means providing such a surplus return on value that the player makes other issues with team building easy. An unfair advantage, which includes Until recently I would have said a player who can “make your draft” can’t come from the first 2-3 rounds because those picks are supposed to be your cornerstones, but Travis Kelce and Davante Adams absolutely made your draft last year as early round picks. So even if you are picking second or third overall, you can take someone that makes your draft. Who can make your draft this year?
Quarterback
Kyler Murray, ARI - Murray was the clear #1 fantasy quarterback before hurting his shoulder in Week 11. He was back in top fantasy form by Week 15, but the temporary lull in scoring brought him back to the pack. If he can stay healthy this year and benefit from the addition of Rodney Hudson to the line and A.J. Green + Rondale Moore to the passing game, he could set new highs for himself on the momentum of his first full uninterrupted offseason in the NFL. Remember, he only started concentrating on football two years ago.
Dak Prescott, DAL - Prescott was the clear #1 fantasy quarterback before hurting his ankle in Week 5. It’s a smaller sample size than Murray, but Prescott was also playing behind a duct tape and bailing wire offensive line instead of the elite unit he’ll get to line up behind this year as long as Tyron Smith and La’el Collins stay healthy. Prescott’s shoulder injury is worrisome and probably should result in him falling in drafts, but his upside will be intact if he can put this behind him before the season starts.
Russell Wilson, SEA - Wilson was just a smidge off of Murray’s scoring through Week 9, even though he doesn’t pull the ball down and run nearly as often as Murray. The Seahawks offense went into a prolonged slump and Wilson wasn’t even a trustworthy fantasy starter. They rectified this by hiring Shane Waldron to run the offense. The team is excited by Waldron’s offense because it has upped the tempo and disguised the run vs. pass intentions, unlike the previous offense. Was Wilson being held back by uninspired offenses this whole time? He’s going outside of the top five quarterbacks, so it’s not that expensive to find out with him on your roster.
Trey Lance, SF - If you forgo quarterback for the first half of your draft and depend on a later pick to make up the difference, Lance should be your focus. Every single item out of San Francisco training camp has indicated that the longer this quarterback battle goes (the team didn’t even acknowledge the competition at the beginning of camp), the more it moves in Lance’s favor. He will get goal line rushing attempts, take advantage of stressed defenses as a runner, and take deep shots against units compressed towards the line of scrimmage to stop the souped up 11 on 11 running game. The only real risk to Lance beyond Jimmy Garoppolo finding a new level in his game is the possibility of the 49ers winning games with minimal pass attempts because their defense is finally healthy up front.
Justin Fields, CHI - If Lance isn’t the best late round quarterback to help you win your league, then Fields is the next most likely player to put you over the top. Like Lance, he has impressed in camp, and like Lance, he has an uninspired if competent quarterback blocking his way. Fields has eerie deep accuracy and the ability to break a long one on scrambles and designed runs, and perhaps Matt Nagy is an offensive genius, but he just hasn’t had the quarterback play to show it yet.
Running Back
Joe Mixon, CIN - Mixon can win your league because he’s usually the lowest drafted running back who has legitimate top three overall upside. He’s going to get the largest workload of his career in the best surrounding offense of his career. His foot injury from last year that cost him 10 games looms large over his profile, but that’s why you can get him in the second round. He also has a clear backup, Samaje Perine, who could be this year’s Mike Davis if Mixon can’t hold up under the true bell cow touch share.
Antonio Gibson, WAS - Gibson was only excellent against the porous Cowboys defense last year, but there are a lot of reasons to think that he could be the breakout running back of 2021. All of the offseason and camp news draws a picture of a running back who is having the game slow down as he is getting accustomed to running the ball, something he didn’t do much in college. He is a very talented receiver, but wasn’t used as much in the passing game as the team would have used him if he was more experienced. This year there have been numerous items about the team’s desire to use him more in the passing game. Add in a much better offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the ingredients are there for Gibson to put up top 5-7 running back numbers even though he often goes outside of the top 10 backs in fantasy drafts.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC - Edwards-Helaire was going in the first round last year after Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season. He was a disappointment - hence the late second/third round ADP this year. The glass half full take here is that Edwards-Helaire was hurt by the lack of an offseason in his rookie year and the offensive line was a weakness for the team. Reports from camp and offseason indicate that Edwards-Helaire is much more in sync with the passing game, and the Chiefs rebuilt the offensive line this offseason to hopefully help the running game get over the hump on goal to go plays, which was a major problem for Edwards-Helaire last year. He could end up being worth that first round pick after all, just a year late.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf, SEA - Only Davante Adams had a higher weekly PPR point average than Metcalf through Week 9 last year, and Tyler Lockett was #3. Lockett is a worthy name to feature here, too, but he isn’t on the upslope side of his career like Metcalf, and he is usually a much less impactful player in the second half of the year after the nicks and bumps pile up. Metcalf should continue to improve in year three, and might become the most valuable receiver in fantasy football if Shane Waldron’s offense truly frees Russell Wilson.
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Justin Jefferson, MIN - Jefferson had one of the best rookie seasons of all time last year even though he was barely involved in the offense in Weeks 1 and 2 and only consistently getting 90% or more of the offensive snaps in the second half of the year. Most offseason reports pegged him as the single most impressive player on the field on either side of the ball. His camp shoulder injury has slowed down the hype train, but if he can avoid an aggravation during the season, we might be blown away by what he does for an encore.
A.J. Brown, TEN - Brown didn’t quite hit his ceiling last year, but that was because he was playing with pain and injuries in both knees that had to be surgically corrected after the season. There are no signs of lingering effect in camp, so it’s all systems go for Brown. He is playing with Julio Jones as a running mate, which should help relieve some attention from defenses, and of course there’s the matter of opponents slowing down Derrick Henry. Brown should set career highs this year, the only question is how high.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL - Lamb has been dazzling onlookers during training camp and appears to be poised to become Dak Prescott’s #1 targets. He’s a threat to break Michael Thomas’s single season reception record if the Cowboys have to pass as much as they did during September last year, and Dan Quinn’s rebuilt defense is probably going to make that possible. As long as Prescott is ok, the improved offensive line should allow the passing game to be even more efficient, and allow Lamb to show off one of the most well-rounded games in the league even though he’s only entering year two of his career.
Julio Jones, TEN - Jones is the cheapest receiver on this list, and only because he missed so much time with injuries last year. Yes, the next chapter following a team trading away an iconic player on the heels of an injury-marred season at age 32 is usually steep decline, but the Falcons were forced to deal Jones because of the cap hell the previous regime left them in, and Jones was very good at playing well through injuries until last year. He was also ineffective in the red zone, but what if that was due to playcalling, which should change in Tennessee, where the offense has been extremely efficient (note though that playcaller Arthur Smith is now Atlanta’s head coach… Todd Downing, just use his playbook, ok?). If Jones returns to form, he’s worth a late first/early second round pick i.e. his usual cost, even though he’s often available in the fourth round in drafts.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts, ATL - I’ve made my case for Pitts far and wide and will continue to, so here it is again. Pitts was the highest drafted tight end in NFL history, and the first tight end to be the first non-quarterback taken in the draft. That player is usually an instant impact player. In recent years it has been Chase Young, Saquon Barkley, and the Bosa brothers. Pitts is being faded because of the history of first round tight ends, but he is not going to be used like a traditional tight end. The team is lining him up all over the formation and will be featuring him as a passing game weapon to compensate for the loss of Julio Jones. If he was announced as a wide receiver, like Ja’Marr Chase, no one would bat an eye at taking him in the fourth or fifth round (where Chase is going), and yet Pitts is worth a multiple more in fantasy leagues when his points come from the tight end position. Durability is the only worry here, so grab your favorite late round tight end just in case.
T.J. Hockenson, DET - Hockenson is a very talented tight end on the rise on a roster that has the worst wide receiver group in the league. That team will likely have to throw a lot. Their quarterback does not like to throw downfield and once made Tyler Higbee the most valuable tight end in fantasy football for a month. 100 catches is absolutely in Hockenson’s range of outcomes this year, which could allow him to crash the elite top three at tight end.
