Dominate Your League
A Footballguys Premium Subscription will give you the edge with lineup and waiver wire advice tailored to your league.
Save Time, Win More with Footballguys.Join Now
Links to similar discussions on other positions:
The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 7 Votes
Sigmund Bloom: Although the move was penciled in for the whole offseason, Zach Ertz is still with the Eagles. They could get a deal done before the season or release Ertz, but if either move was going to happen, it was likely to happen before camp opened. There is still a reasonable chance Ertz plays out his 8.5 million deal for this year on the Eagles roster, which would torpedo Goedert's value, and Goedert has to rely on an inaccurate passer - Jalen Hurts - for his value to grow. First-round pick Devonta Smith could also become Hurts' favorite target if he stays healthy. There are too many obstacles in Goedert's way right now to deliver value on ADP.
Ben Cummins: I'm a fan of Dallas Goedert's real-life game. However, he's being drafted too early in fantasy land for my liking. Zach Ertz was unanimously thought to be on the way out of Philadelphia earlier this offseason yet, that hasn't materialized. Ertz is still on the Eagles, but drafters seemingly don't care as Goedert's ADP has remained pretty steady all summer. A devalued onesie position, especially if you don't land one of the big three (Kelce, Kittle, Waller), I'm happy to wait on tight end and much prefer the lower prices of Tyler Higbee, Logan Thomas, Noah Fant, Robert Tonyan Jr, Irv Smith, and Jonnu Smith.
Andrew Davenport: Goedert's ADP seems to be still reflecting everyone's optimism from the end of 2020 that Zach Ertz was moving on. However, Ertz is still in Philadelphia, yet Goedert's ADP hasn't gone down. It's still possible Ertz could be moved via trade or cut, but right now, drafting Goedert means counting on a bunch of factors to line up in his favor. There is a new quarterback, a new coaching staff, and the uncertainty of Ertz. Until things clear up, Goedert is a pass at his lofty ADP.
Pat Fitzmaurice: I still believe in the player, but Goedert's offseason ADP baked in the assumption that the Eagles would move Zach Ertz in the offseason. That hasn't happened, and yet Goedert still has an ADP inside the top 60. He's an easy fade at this price.
Jordan McNamara: With the apparent return of Zach Ertz, I think Goedert is overvalued. Goedert has been good, with 1.75 yards per route run, ninth amongst tight ends last season. However, with a new quarterback in Jalen Hurt, a new coaching staff, and a crowded position, I'll pass on Goedert at his current cost. If Zach Ertz is cut or traded in the preseason, Goedert is appropriately priced.
Ryan Weisse: Listen, all middle-round tight ends are a trap, but Goedert is trending towards being the poster boy. The Eagles are likely to be a low passing volume team. They also have two 1st-Round wide receivers on the roster. Oh, and they have not gotten rid of Zach Ertz. Goedert will not see the volume to finish as a top-10 option at the position, so you are praying for touchdowns, the hardest thing to predict in fantasy football.
Jason Wood: Zach Ertz may still be traded, but with each passing day, it looks less likely. And while Ertz is on the downside of his illustrious career, he's not going to be a non-factor. Through two weeks of training camp, Ertz looked better than Goedert, and either way, sharing time in a low-volume passing offense with a young, inaccurate passer is hardly a recipe for fantasy success. Goedert has a path to elite numbers, but it's one of the lower-probability limbs on the tree.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Phil Alexander: Thomas was a fun story last year. A quarterback-convert with elite measurables getting an opportunity and running with it was easy to root for, especially in fantasy where Thomas only cost a waiver claim in most leagues. But his unexpected TE4 finish in 2020 was fueled by 110 targets, which trailed only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller among tight ends. If you believe Thomas can once again approach a 20% target share in Washington, go ahead and draft him at ADP. It's more likely, however, that Thomas' hefty volume takes a substantial hit following the acquisitions of Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and rookie Dyami Brown.
Continue reading this article with a 100% free Insider subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, ESPN