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Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 10

The Top 5 player props on Monkey Knife Fight for Week 10

By Dan Hindery
November 11, 2021
Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 10
Photo: Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports
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Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.

Week 9 Review

Last Week: +7

Season Total: +7

We are going to start with the review this week because the Week 10 article is going to feature only one specific type of prop and we want to explain why before detailing the specific picks. The reason for focusing on one pick type is the fact that we have been running extremely hot on these 4X for over 2.5 combined touchdown props. In Week 9, we went two-for-two on 4X opportunities with these touchdown props and have been hitting at a very high rate on the season.

Let’s quickly review what these touchdown props look like, what we are looking for, and why the props are a nice value. We are picking three skill position players from a single game who we think can combine for three total touchdowns (since we need more than 2.5). If we can hit on a decent percentage of these, we have a great chance to come out ahead in the long run since they pay out 4X (+300). The key has been finding at least one star running back who has a decent shot at two touchdowns and then doing our best to find at least one touchdown from the other two players.

Week 9 Picks

5: Thursday TDs: (+3) The strategy when picking these 4X opportunities on 2.5 touchdown total props has been to search for an elite running back in a great spot with a realistic shot at multiple touchdowns and then hope that one of the other two players scores one too. Jonathan Taylor was the main attraction here and he came through with two touchdowns. Michael Pittman got us over 2.5 with his receiving touchdown. Spoiler alert: We are going back to the well with Taylor and Pittman again this week.

4: Bengals still fun: (+3) Another week, another hit on Joe Mixon, JaMarr Chase, and the opposing team’s running back (Nick Chubb in Week 9) combining to score more than 2.5 touchdowns. Both Chubb and Mixon scored twice

3: Emerging Star WRs: (+2) Hit this one just barely. Had Marquise Brown with more than 13.5 fantasy points. He had 20.6. We needed more than 16.5 from Justin Jefferson and he managed to just barely get there with 17.0.

2: Slot Volume: (-1) We were a Kadarius Toney clunker away from a perfect week. We need more than 11.5 fantasy points from Toney and he never came close, which is a shame because the other half of this prop hit easily with Hunter Renfrow scoring 17.9 fantasy points.

1: QB Unders (0) When it looked like Kyler Murray was going to play, we were on the under for his fantasy points. This one was canceled though when he was inactive.

5: Panthers-Cardinals TDs

Over 2.5 combined touchdowns for Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, and DeAndre Hopkins (4x)

Sunday Update: Swapping from Hopkins to Christian Kirk

    • This is one of my favorite props of the week because we have two running backs we know have very realistic multiple-touchdown upside. Like the Joe Mixon-Nick Chubb duo we were on last week, we have a great shot at getting three or four touchdowns from the starting running backs in this game.
    • We have to start with the one non-superstar on our list, James Conner, because he is actually our best bet for touchdowns here. In fact, Conner is tied with Jonathan Taylor for highest touchdown expectation on the week (1.04) in the Footballguys Consensus Projections. He leads the NFL with four multiple-touchdown games this season.
    • Conner leads all skill position players in touchdowns and it is not fluky based upon his usage. Conner has scored a league-leading seven touchdowns on carries Inside 5 yards. With Kyler Murray banged up and less of a running threat (if he even plays) and Chase Edmonds sidelined, Conner should see a heavier workload than normal.
    • The Panthers eased McCaffrey back into the lineup last week when he played just 49% of the offensive snaps. Even while giving him a game to ramp up back to his normal usage levels, McCaffrey still had 14 carries and 5 targets. The assumption is that he will be back up to the 80-plus percent of snaps that he typically plays this week. We could see a 25-touch game here.
  • In his last 29 games, McCaffrey scored two-plus touchdowns in 44.8% of those games. This is a tougher than average matchup against a stingy Cardinals defense and McCaffrey may still see slightly less than his typical workload, so the odds of him scoring two or three times are probably lower than 45%. Regardless, we know based upon past history that McCaffrey is capable of getting all or most of the three touchdowns we need all by himself.
  • Strategy note: Unlike some other props, these numbers will not change throughout the week so there is no benefit in getting your plays in early. You have the option to wait until Sunday to lock these in. This is a great case as to why that can be beneficial. DeAndre Hopkins is tentatively the third-wheel alongside our two running back locks. However, we want to check in on his health leading up to the game to determine how limited he would be if he suits up. We have three other pass catchers in this game (D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk, and Zach Ertz) who also carry touchdown projections in the .35 to .4 range. Again, the attraction here is the two running backs. The straightest line to a win is one of them scoring twice and the other scoring once. The pass-catcher is just the cherry on top, so feel free to go with your gut here. If the pre-game reports are not great on Hopkins, my preferred pivot is Ertz.

4: Vikings-Chargers TDs

Over 2.5 combined touchdowns for Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, and Adam Thielen (4x)

  • This is our second opportunity to lock in a pair of running backs with top touchdown projections. According to the Footballguys consensus, the above trio projects for 2.24 combined touchdowns this weekend. That is just slightly below the 2.5 touchdown cutoff, which would make it a solid but not great play if we were only getting a chance to 2X our money. Instead, we are actually getting these reasonable odds of more than 2.5 touchdowns with a 4X opportunity attached. There is a ton of positive value here.
  • The Vikings-Chargers game has the second-highest game total of the weekend, meaning we should see plenty of touchdowns. In addition to this projecting to be a high-scoring game, we also have two teams with very condensed red zone usage, making it easier than normal to predict who the touchdowns are likely to come from.
  • Austin Ekeler carries the fourth-highest touchdown projection amongst all skill position players this week (0.9), making him a great anchor for this prop.
  • The biggest difference when it comes to usage for Austin Ekeler this season compared to the past is that he has been getting almost all of the goal line carries. He has 85.7% of the Chargers attempts from Inside 5, the second-most in the NFL.
  • Ekeler has already had two multiple-touchdown games this season (25%).
  • Dalvin Cook is due for some positive touchdown regression. Last season, he scored 17 times in 14 games (1.21 per game). This season, he has scored just twice in six games (33.3%). In fact, some of his peripherals look even better this season. In 2020, Cook had 64.7% of the Minnesota carries from Inside 5. This season, he is up to 75% of the team’s carries Inside 5.
  • The matchup for Cook is one of the best possible. The Chargers have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns to opposing backs, second-most in the NFL behind only the Jets.
  • Since coming back from injury, Cook has averaged 109 yards rushing in three tough matchups against Carolina, Dallas, and Baltimore.
  • Adam Thielen is a touchdown machine due to his massive usage down around the goal line. Since the start of the 2020 season, Thielen has scored 14 touchdowns of less than 10 yards, second-most in the NFL.
  • Thielen is clearly Kirk Cousins’ go-to target in the red zone. His 33.9% share of red-zone targets last season was second in the NFL behind only Davante Adams. This season, he has seen a whopping 50% of the Vikings targets inside the 10-yard line, tops in the entire NFL.

3: Rams-49ers TDs

Over 2.5 combined touchdowns for Darrell Henderson, Cooper Kupp, and Elijah Mitchell (4x)

    • There has not been a more consistently productive pass catcher in the NFL this season than Cooper Kupp. He leads the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns.
    • Kupp has scored multiple touchdowns in 44% of the Rams game this season.
    • It all starts with his red zone usage. Kupp has already been targeted 21 times in the red zone through nine games (2.3 times per game). Nobody else in the NFL has more than 15 red zone targets.
    • San Francisco has allowed 1.25 touchdowns per game to opposing backs this season.
    • Darrell Henderson ranks ninth in the NFL in red zone carries (22) and is one of just nine players who has handled 70% or more of the Inside 5 carries for his team.
    • Elijah Mitchell has scored in three-of-six games this season (50%). While the two optimal Rams options are obvious, picking which San Francisco player to include in the prop is much more of an open question. You could make a strong case for Deebo Samuel or George Kittle and if you like one of those two better, by all means, tweak this one a bit and pick whoever you prefer best on the 49ers. The Rams have given up 0.88 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs, which is why Mitchell edges out the two pass catchers for me.

2: Colts-Jaguars TDs

Over 2.5 combined touchdowns for Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and James Robinson (4x)

    • Jonathan Taylor should carry the highest touchdown expectation in the NFL for the rest of the season. After a slow start, he has scored nine times in his last six games (1.5 per game). One has scored in six straight and scored multiple touchdowns in half of those games.
    • Taylor is lapping the field in terms of red zone carries. His 44 lead the NFL by 12.
    • Taylor also has a whopping 15 carries from inside the five-yard line, 50% more than anyone else in the NFL.
    • More than just improved stats, it just feels like the Colts coaching staff has made a decision that Taylor is a special player and must be featured. This feels like a breakout where Taylor is in the process of going from good to elite.
    • Michael Pittman trails only Cooper Kupp with eight targets from Inside 10 this season.
    • Pittman has scored four touchdowns in his last three games and has become the clear go-to pass catcher for Carson Wentz.
  • The Jacksonville offense has not been the same without James Robinson. Sometimes absence makes the heart grow fonder and that may be the case for Urban Meyer here. Meyer has been slow to come to grasps with the fact that Robinson is his best offensive player but the reality seems to have set in and we should see Robinson get massive usage down the stretch.

1: Chiefs-Raiders TDs

Over 2.5 combined touchdowns for Josh Jacobs, Tyreek Hill, and Darrel Williams (4x)

    • We have not had much luck with Chiefs offensive players this season but are going to go back to the well one more time. At some point, this offense has to start scoring touchdowns in bunches, doesn’t it?
    • Darrel Williams has been getting ideal usage since Clyde Edwards-Helaire went down with an injury. He led all RBs in expected PPR points last week. That will happen when a running back gets six red zone opportunities. However, since Williams scored multiple touchdowns in his first start (Week 6), he has gone three straight games without a score. Based upon his usage, that should change soon.
    • Over the last six games, Tyreek Hill has 75 targets (13.0 per game) and has scored five touchdowns. Like the rest of the Chiefs offense, Hill’s per opportunity efficiency has plummeted. However, he is getting absolutely insane usage. At some point, the Chiefs will get things back on track and Hill will explode for a multiple-touchdown game.
    • Hill has scored 21 touchdowns in his last 24 games.
    • Josh Jacobs has scored five touchdown in six games this season and comes into this games with a Top 10 touchdown projection.
    • Since the start of the 2020 season, Jacobs has 79 red zone carries in 21 games. That is third-most in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor.
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