Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 4.
All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play
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Week 3 Recap 2-3
No way to sugar coat this, last week was the second consecutive losing week. After being positive last year, this year is not off to a good start and needs a turn-around quickly.
Jared Goff Over 271.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 75.5 Total Yards- Loss
Carlos Hyde Under 28.5 Rushing + Receiving- Loss
Joe Mixon More Rushing Yards Than Najee Harris- Win
Justin Fields Under 53.5 Rushing Yards- Win
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Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Total |
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3-2 |
1-4 |
2-3 |
6-9 |
Week 3 Plays
Derrick Henry Under 122.5 Rushing Yards
With no A.J. Brown or Julio Jones, this number has absolutely skyrocketed. Henry has ran the ball a staggering 80 times thus far through three games, and has only topped 122.5 yards once in those three games. The Titans realistically need to start thinking about workload management for the running back who is on pace to touch the ball 520 times this season. Long story short, there is not this magical additional volume that Henry is going to get this week, and the Jets are not going to have to respect the passing threat that the Titans pose, so if anything it could be more difficult for Henry to run in a crowded box this week. The Jets have been a middle of the road team in terms of stopping the run allowing 110 yards per game, but have looked much better than last year thanks to the return of C.J. Moseley the star linebacker who opted out of 2020 and missed 2019 due to injury. Footballguys has Henry projected at 106 yards, which seems to be a much more reasonable number than the inflated 122.5.
Saquon Barkley Under 55.5 Rushing Yards
With Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton out, Saquon Barkley will be a significant emphasis on this game in New Orleans this week. While Barkley has upside in the receiving game, don’t expect him to have much room to run the ball this week. The Saints run defense has been a juggernaut to start the season as 9 yards, Christian McCaffrey had 72 yards on 24 carries, and the Patriots did not even attempt to run the ball last week as Damien Harris had 14 yards on just 6 carries. This is a unit that allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2020. The Giants have asked Saquon to adjust his running style to become more of a north-south runner instead of the slashing running back that he is known for, always looking for the big play. So far, that has not translated into success this season as he is averaging just 3.4 yards-per-carry and averaging just 44 yards rushing per game.
Jaylen Waddle Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
This is the week that the Dolphins unleash Waddle. Waddle had an amazing 12 receptions last week with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, but did very little with those 12 receptions as he averaged just 4.8 yards per reception which is abysmal for someone with Waddle’s breakaway speed. This week, Waddle gets to go up against two of the most targeted cornerbacks in the league thus far in Kenny Moore and Isaiah Rodgers. This should be an advantage for Waddle as they look to continue his development and justify the top-10 pick that they spent on him.
Russell Wilson Over 276.5 Passing Yards
This is one of those games where you need to remind yourself to not focus on the front of the jerseys (team name), but instead focus in on who are the players on that team. The 49ers secondary this season is absolutely atrocious due to both injury and attrition from offseason moves such as the departure of Richard Sherman. Corners K’Waun Williams and Josh Norman will both miss this game which will leave Emmanuel Moseley who is a replacement level cornerback as the top cornerback in San Francisco, and behind that there is nothing. Deommodore Lenoir who is a 5th-round rookie, then we have veterans in Buster Skrine and Dre Kirkpatrick who were both signed off the street over the last 10 days. The Seahawks are 1-2, and have their own defensive issues, this game could quickly turn into a shootout and Russell Wilson is going to be expected to put this team on his back this week.
Davis Mills Under 200.5 Passing Yards
This number just seems like DraftKings did not want to go under 200 for whatever reason, but they probably should have. This prop has one of the largest disparities between Footballguys projections and the prop number as Footballguys has Mills with 185 passing yards this week. Mills in his first start looked completely overmatched against the Panthers, throwing for just 168 yards, and was sacked 4 times in the process. While the Panthers defense looks like it should be a much improved unit, this was a defense that allowed 258 passing yards to Zach Wilson back in Week 1. This week, he has to face a defense with a sample size of being one of the NFL’s best pass defenses over the last several seasons as the Bills are going to make it very difficult for Mills this week. Buffalo is allowing just 194 passing yards on the season, and the challenge will be that with Brandin Cooks drawing significant attention from safety Micah Hyde, who else for the Texans can step up as a reliable threat. Thankfully for the Texans, strong safety Jordan Poyer will miss this game, but the combination of Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, and Micah Hyde should be enough to keep Mills under 200.5 yards.
