Photo: USA Today Sports

Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 1

Jacksonville at Houston

Jacksonville saw a significant change in offensive coaching personnel this offseason, with the firing of Doug Marrone, and the hiring of Head Coach Urban Meyer and Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell. The Jaguars drafted Trevor Lawrence first overall and Travis Etienne 25^th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, but lost Etienne for the season with a foot injury suffered in a preseason game. Jacksonville returns 2020 starter James Robinson who was great in a surprise role with the team as he averaged 4.5 yards-per-carry. The Jaguars will supplement Robinson with free agent signee Carlos Hyde who has struggled to find a home changing teams in each of the last five seasons. Jacksonville ranked 12^th in yards per carry in 2021 (4.5) and returns its core offensive linemen from last year that ranked in the bottom 10 units in 2020.

Houston gave up the second-most fantasy points to running backs (32.5) and most rushing yards in the league in 2020. Their rush defense will go through a significant overhaul in 2021. Houston’s defense ranked amongst the worst in the league in 2020, before losing key contributors J.J. Watt and linebacker Tyrell Adams. The loss of Deshaun Watson will also hurt as the Houston offense could cover the poor rush defense by scoring points and forcing opposing offenses into passing situations. With Watson out and Taylor starting, the Houston rush defense should face a significant amount of negative game script situations as teams are expected to get out in front of what should be one of the worst defenses in football.

Minnesota at Cincinnati

Minnesota’s offense has a new offensive coordinator, with Gary Kubiak retiring and his son Klint Kubiak taking over the job. The offense lost left guard Dakota Dozier and left tackle Riley Reiff off an offensive line that performed amongst the middle of the pack in rush blocking performance in 2021. The offense should be thin at the tight end position . The Vikings drafted left tackle Christian Darrishaw in the first round of the NFL Draft and acquired Chris Herndon in a trade during training camp. The remainder of the offensive core, including Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Theilen, and Dalvin Cook, that ranked fourth in rushing yards per attempt and eighth in rushing attempts, return intact.

Cincinnati ranked 31^st in yards per attempt (5.1) in 2020 while allowing the eighth-most rushing attempts. The defense gave up the 13^th most points to opposing running backs in 2020 (24.2). The looks to be a completely rebuilt defense as they have added depth in both free agency (Larry Ogunjobi and Trey Hendrickson) and through the draft (Joseph Ossai, Cameron Sample, Tyler Shelvin). The best news for the Bengals is that they are returning one of the best defensive tackles in football in D.J. Reader who played only five games in 2020 as a result of injury. This is a defense that has talent on the defensive line, but still struggles at the linebacker position and their safeties are better pass defenders than run-stoppers which could pose a liability for the Bengals to make them susceptible to a big play.

Houston vs. Jacksonville

Houston lost Duke Johnson Jr in free agency but added Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to compliment David Johnson. The offensive line ranked among the bottom 10 rush blocking units in the league. The big difference in the offense will be Deshaun Watson sitting out during his contract and legal disputes, which may affect the overall production of the offense as the offense will start Tyrod Taylor, a clear downgrade from Watson. The offensive line lost Center Nick Martin but added Tackles Geron Christian and Marcus Cannon. Mark Ingram has projected to be the starting running back in week one, but the trio of Ingram, Lindsay, and Johnson may be difficult to sort out despite a good matchup.

Jacksonville traded Joe Schobert to Pittsburgh this offseason, but made additions along the interior defensive line (Jihad Ward, Roy Robertson-Harris, Malcolm Brown), along with linebacker Damien Wilson, and Rayshawn Jenkins at safety. Jacksonville gave up the third-most points to opposing running backs in 2020 (30.2). Jacksonville gave up the most rushing attempts (517), third-most rushing yards (2,452), and fourth in rushing touchdowns (23) while giving up the fifth-most rushing yards per attempt (4.7). This is a unit that is looking to find an identity, as they have been one of the bottom units in each of the last two seasons. The safeties could be a liability as Andrew Wingard and Rayshawn Jenkins are both players who both lack significant experience, but the Jaguars expect big things out of Jenkins signing him to a significant contract in the offseason.

Tampa vs Dallas

Tampa Bay returns their entire offense coming off of their Super Bowl win in 2021, although this may not be great news for the rushing attack. The Buccaneers were 29^th in rushing attempts (369), 28^th in rushing yards (1,519), and ran the ball in the red zone only 42.9% of the time, 28^th most in the league. This is a team that is built to throw the ball, and do enough on the ground to keep the defense honest. The running back unit will once again be a mixture of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II which while Jones is the more explosive running back, his limitations in the passing game have kept him from completely taking over this job.

Dallas’ defense finished 14^th highest in fantasy points to running backs per game (24.1) in 2020. In the offseason, the defense changed schemes to a Cover 3 look of Dan Quinn after a one-year failed experience with Mike Nolan. The defense struggled mightily last season as they were a bottom eight rushing unit, with the third-highest yards per attempt (5.0), second-most rushing yards (2,541), and second-most rushing attempts (510). The team is looking to rebuild, by adding some key players with linebacker Micah Parsons in the draft and safeties Safeties Damontae Kazee and Keanu Neal in free agency. This should be an upgrade to their run defense, but with such key positions it could take some time for them to adjust. Dak Prescott’s return should improve the Dallas offense, which in turn could protect the Dallas run defense.

Baltimore at Las Vegas

The Baltimore offensive line saw some change, including trading right tackle Orlando Brown to the Chiefs while signing right tackle Alejandro Villanueva in free agency. The offense also brought in right guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency. The Ravens ran 61.4% of the time in the red zone, but only 67% of their rushes were running back runs, which ranked 30^th in the league. Gus Edwards was elite at producing above expectation in 2020, but the loss of projected starter JK Dobbins will leave a significant void in this offense. The offense will remain a run-first offense that will rely on Edwards and Lamar Jackson in 2021 as the Ravens also lost backup Justice Hill. The Ravens did sign Le’Veon Bell, but it will likely take several weeks for them to evaluate Bell’s play as he struggled to carve out a significant role in New York and Kansas City in 2021.

The Raiders look to rebuild their defense in 2021 as they fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther and brought in Gus Bradley, who was the defensive coordinator with the Chargers the past four years that oversaw a middle-of-the-pack rushing defense. The Las Vegas defense also look to rebuild their linebacking group adding K.J. Wright and Denzel Perryman. The Raiders gave up 28.2 running back points per game in 2020, the fourth-most in the league. The defense faced the 10^th most rushing attempts (438), finished ninth in rushing yards (2013), and surrendered the second-most rushing touchdowns (24). This is a unit that still struggles on the defensive line as they were one of the worst in 2020.

Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 1

Dallas vs Tampa Bay

The Dallas offense should see an improvement with the return of Dak Prescott from injury. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will lead the backfield, with Elliott projected for one of the higher workloads of starting running backs in the league. The running game was neutral in usage, ranking 15^th in carries, 430, and 17^th in rushing yards. Zack Martin’s COVID-19 diagnosis is expected to leave Dallas without their best offensive lineman in week one against Tampa. The offense also ranked 25^th (44%) in rushing rate in the red zone and 23^rd in running back rushing percent in the red zone (77%).

The Tampa Bay defense returns all key players from their Super Bowl championship squad. The team drafted DE Joe Tryon in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. The defense gave up the fewest rushing attempts (358), rushing yards (1289), and rushing touchdowns (10) in 2020. In total, Tampa Bay gave up 21 points per game to opposing running backs, the seventh-fewest in the league. The most susceptible place for running back production was in the passing game where the team gave up the seventh most receiving yards per game (44). The strength of the Tampa Bay offense will help to keep the rushing attempts down and protect against opposing rushing offenses. This is a unit that is incredibly talented led by defensive tackle who missed most of the 2020 season, who eats up space to allow the linebacking group of Devin White and Lavonte David clean up tackles.

Seattle vs Indianapolis

The Seattle offense will see a change, with the departure of Brian Schottenheimer and the hiring of Shane Waldron from the Sean McVay coaching tree. The Seattle Offense ranked 17^th in rushing attempts, 12^th in rushing yards (1971), and 19^th in rushing touchdowns (15) in 2020. Chris Carson returns healthy after an offseason contract extension with a complicated backup situation with Rashaad Penny, Alex Collins, DeeJay Dallas, and Travis Homer all on the roster. The Seahawks received great news this week as left tackle Duane Brown will play after holding out for a new contract.

The Indianapolis Colts defense finished with the 6^th fewest rushing attempts (390) and 2^nd fewest rushing yards (1,448). The Colts' stats were overly optimistic of their true performance, particularly in fantasy, as they gave up 21.8 points per game to running backs, the 12^th fewest in the league. The defense returned their core of defenders while adding edge defenders Kwity Paye and Dayo Obeyingbo in the draft. The Colts did lose Anthony Walker in free agency who departed to Cleveland which will be a significant loss to this rushing attack as Walker and Darius Leonard made one of the best linebacking units in football.

Chicago vs LA RAMS

The Chicago Bears return David Montgomery who broke out in 2020 after Tarik Cohen was injured. Montgomery saw a steep jump in usage after Cohen was placed on IR, playing north of 80% of the snaps after Cohen’s injury. With Cohen still on the PUP list, Damien Williams is unlikely to present the same type of threat to Montgomery’s workload as Cohen did at the beginning of 2020. The Bears only ranked 27^th in rushing attempts (393), 25^th in rushing yards (1647), and 28^th in rushing touchdowns (12). The offensive line outperformed the statistical performance of the running game but lost starting left tackle Charles Leno who will be replaced with Jason Peters.

The Rams lost Defensive Coordinator Brandon Staley, who led an elite defense in 2020. The Rams allowed the 6^th fewest points for running backs in 2020 (20.8). The Rams surrendered the third-fewest rushing yards in 2020 (1460) and fourth-fewest rushing attempts (388). Outside of the loss of Staley, the biggest loss for the defense was Safety John Johnson to the Browns, with the uncertainty of new Defensive Coordinator Raheem Morris’s scheme another unknown. This still remains one of the best units in football and will have high expectations heading into 2021 as Aaron Donald remains the perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

Green Bay vs New Orleans

Green Bay lost left tackle David Bakhtiari to the PUP list for the start of the season after last year’s knee injury. The offense also lost center Corey Linsley and right tackle Rick Wagner, three of their best run blocker in 2020, off a run-blocking unit that was well above average in 2020. The offense returns Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon after losing Jamaal Williams in free agency. The Packers ranked 12^th in rushing attempts in 2020 (443) but ranked 8^th in rushing yards (2118). The Packers ran 48.2% of the time in the red zone in 2020, 18^th in the league, with 91% of their red zone rushes from the running back position, ranking 9^th in the league.

The Saints have been one of the top run defenses over the last few seasons. The Saints had the 27^th most rushing attempts against (390), 29^th in rushing yards (1460), and 29^th in rushing yards per attempt (3.8). The defense returns much of their key core led by defensive lineman Cameron Jordan. The Saints did replace Alex Anzalone, who was one of their worst run defenders in 2020. This was one of the top units in 2020 as the Saints gave up 18.0 points per game to running backs, the fewest in the league in 2020.

Indianapolis vs Seattle

The Indianapolis offense lost Philip Rivers, a quarterback that has consistently added value to the running backs in the passing game while adding Carson Wentz, who has consistently not added value to the running backs in the passing game. The offense was plagued by COVID protocol issues in the past week but Wentz, starting center Ryan Kelly, and guard Quinten Nelson were all activated from the COVID-19 list after their close contacts with COVID-positive people. The Colts ranked 10^th in rushing attempts (459) and 11^th in rushing yards (2018) in 2020. The Colts also ran 54% of the time in the red zone, the 12^th highest rate in the league. The addition of Wentz could give an additional threat from the quarterback position in the running game, where the Colts had the second-fewest quarterback rushes in the red zone in 2020. The biggest question for the Colts is whether there will be some early season continuity issues as Wentz and Quenton Nelson missed a significant part of the pre-season due to foot injuries.

The Seattle gave up the third-fewest yards per carry in 2020 (3.9) but there are some open questions heading into the 2021 season as they lost both K.J. Wright and Jarran Reed. This remains a unit that is led by preventing significant plays as Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams remain two of the best run defenders in the NFL at their respective positions making it incredibly difficult for teams to break long runs. With the big questions in the pass coverage for the Seahawks, this will be a unit that teams try to beat through the air instead of the ground.