Player value in dynasty football reminds me of watching ocean waves. They ebb and flow, always in a state of flux. Competitive dynasty players anticipate these movements before they happen and act by picking up, buying, or selling players as the situation demands. Dynasty general managers have previously been at the mercy of regular waiver segments to assist in dynasty pickups, but these fail to account for the long-term view necessary to dynasty success. This weekly column will focus on identifying assets that will help dynasty teams build for the future, as well as players that may plug a hole at a position of need on an otherwise strong squad.
Welcome to the Week 17 edition of Waivers of the Future! Whether you are a contending or rebuilding team, this report will endeavor to spark some ideas about whom you might want to claim.
This will be the last column of the year in this series. If you are playing for the championship this week and your waiver budget does not roll over, do not be afraid to go all in on a player you would be willing to start. There are very few options out there at this point and if you find one that you would be willing to slot into the lineup, you should make sure you get them. If you are rebuilding, be aggressive with your bids for the players you want to stash. You do not want to wait until the claim period after the championship game when even contending teams will be gunning for players to store away on the back end of their rosters.
IN THE SKY
Players on this list have previously appeared in this article as pickups but have had value spikes at points in the season that make them unlikely to be out there in your league. If they are still available and you need help contending, consider spending 20-50%+ of your budget on them, depending on your league.
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Carson Wentz, IND| 84% rostered on MFL|
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Latavius Murray, BAL| 65% rostered on MFL|
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Rashaad Penny, SEA| 81% rostered on MFL|
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Alexander Mattison, MIN| 90% rostered on MFL|
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Tony Pollard, DAL| 92% rostered on MFL |
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Marquez Callaway, NO| 66% rostered on MFL
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Tim Patrick, DEN| 66% rostered on MFL|
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Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE| 52% rostered on MFL|
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Tyler Conklin, MIN| 69% rostered on MFL|
IN THE WATER
QUARTERBACK
Taysom Hill, NO| 65% rostered on MFL| Contending 20-40%, Rebuilding 1%|
We will see if he is back from the COVID list in time. If he is, he is probably the best short-term fantasy quarterback that still might be available. Hill’s frequent turnovers can be a problem in leagues that heavily penalize interceptions and fumbles, but he makes up for his poor decision-making with his rushing and big-play ability. In Week 17, the Saints will play a lenient Carolina Panthers defense.
Cam Newton, CAR| 56% rostered on MFL| Contending 20-40%, Rebuilding 1%|
Newton is now splitting some reps with Sam Darnold, which hurts his fantasy outlook. Still, he has rushing ability that many other fantasy quarterbacks just do not have. In Week 17, the Panthers face the Saints, who are a bottom-dweller in pass defense.
Drew Lock, DEN| 29% rostered on MFL| Contending 10-20%, Rebuilding 1%|
Lock was able to relieve an injured Bridgewater and could be in line to finish out the fantasy season at quarterback for the Broncos. While he does make turnover mistakes, he has been fairly prolific as a fantasy signal-caller in the past. It also does not hurt that he has some very quality options in Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Jerry Jeudy. In Week 17, the Broncos will draw a relatively easy passing
Josh Johnson, BAL| 7% rostered on MFL| Contending 10-15%, Rebuilding 1%
Tyler Huntley, BAL| 22% rostered on MFL| Contending 10-15%, Rebuilding 1-10%|
Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle injury that held him out in Week 15 and 16. If he should miss yet another week, either Josh Johnson or Tyler Huntley will start. Huntley is not an amazing replacement and is prone to turnovers, so keep that in mind in leagues in which interceptions or fumbles are heavily penalized. That being said, like Jackson, he has the ability to make plays with his legs, which makes him more valuable than the average replacement. He did miss Week 16 with COVID, however, which is why Josh Johnson is worth mentioning. While Johnson was not amazing against Cincinnati, he was competent and able to keep the offense on track. Should Jackson not be back by Week 17, the Steelers will play the Rams, which is a poor matchup for the Ravens offense.
Davis Mills, HOU| 30% rostered on MFL| Contending and Rebuilding 10-15%|
Mills will start for the rest of the year according to a report that surfaced a few weeks ago. This makes sense, as the Texans have turned to evaluation mode. We saw Mills earlier in the year when Tyrod Taylor was injured and that is a good frame of reference for what his upside is going forward. In Week 17, he will have to face one of the better pass defenses in the NFL when he plays against the 49ers.
Jake Fromm, NYG| 10% rostered on MFL| Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1-10%|
Mike Glennon, NYG| 10% rostered on MFL| Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%|
Fromm started for New York in Week 16 and was benched for Mike Glennon. It is hard to know at this point who will start next week, even as the team is likely in evaluation mode with Daniel Jones now out for the season. There is no assurance that Jones will remain the starting quarterback headed into next season. Daniel Jones struggles in some of the areas in which Fromm excels, which could mean that Fromm will end up overtaking him. Fromm is the most promising quarterback the Giants currently have in terms of decision-making and accuracy, but behind an offensive line that cannot protect any of its signal-callers, it is hard to have confidence in whoever starts. The Giants will take on a Bears defense in Week 17 that is not great in pass defense but has a pass rush that could make life difficult for a Giants team that has major offensive line struggles.
Sam Ehlinger, IND| 5% rostered on MFL| Contending Watchlist, Rebuilding 1%|
Ehlinger had some great moments in preseason action. He split first-team reps with Jacob Eason before suffering a knee sprain that placed him on injured reserve. Since returning, he has seen limited regular-season action, including a very brief appearance in Week 13. Carson Wentz is not a sure thing as a reclamation project, so it would be good for quarterback-needy dynasty teams to roster Ehlinger and see if he continues to develop.
Josh Rosen, ATL | 3% rostered on MFL| Contending Watchlist, Rebuilding 1%|
It is not encouraging that Rosen has bounced around quite a bit in his short career, but he is still one of the league's more talented backup quarterback prospects. He is also behind Matt Ryan and can continue to learn from another quality veteran as he did last season in Tampa Bay behind Tom Brady.
RUNNING BACK
Jeff Wilson, SF| 73% rostered on MFL| Contending 20-25%, Rebuilding 1%
Elijah Mitchell could be back from his knee injury this week, making Wilson a lot less appealing. Wilson will face a softer opponent in Week 17 when the 49ers take on the sagging Texans.
Jordan Howard and Boston Scott, PHI| 48% and 52% rostered on MFL| Contending 20-25%, Rebuilding 1%
Howard himself exited the game with a stinger, but he is more likely to return to action next week than Miles Sanders, who reportedly fractured his hand. Scott also is worthy of consideration, as this will probably become a backfield tandem against an abysmal Washington defense.
Rex Burkhead, HOU| 29% rostered on MFL| Contending 20-25%, Rebuilding 1%
Do not count on Burkhead having the game he had against the Chargers in Week 16, but he has shown that when given a significant workload, he can do something with it. If David Johnson sits again, we can expect Burkhead to lead the charge against a very tough 49ers run defense in Week 17.
Craig Reynolds, DET| 40% rostered on MFL| Contending 20-25%, Rebuilding 1%
Jamaal Williams took the bulk of the work in his return, but Reynolds still had double-digit touches. He did not do much with them, but it is tough to find a workload like that on the waiver wire at this stage. He is likely to continue in his complementary role as long as Deandre Swift remains out. The Seahawks are a favorable draw for Week 17.
Duke Johnson Jr, MIA| 10% rostered on MFL| Contending 5-10%, Rebuilding 1%
COVID recovery has complicated the picture. For now, Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed have taken a back seat to Johnson, who earned 22 carries in Week 15. It is risky to count on week-to-week usage to remain the same. However, if your team needs to roll the dice on a player that could get double digit carries, Johnson may be your only choice at this point in the season. The Saints are a better run defense to have to face in Week 16. The Dolphins will play the Titans in Week 17. Tennessee has been very stout against the run in recent weeks.
Dontrell Hilliard, Donta Foreman, and Jeremy McNichols, TEN| 58%, 77%, and 39% rostered on MFL| Contending 5-10%, Rebuilding 1%
The Titans’ run game got complicated again when Jeremy McNicols returned from injured reserve. Basically, you are taking a large risk by starting any of the three, because their usage has not been consistent from week to week. However, with all the injury situations out there, general managers may have few available choices. The Dolphins have made strides in run defense and are not a favorable draw in Week 17 for this team.
Eno Benjamin, ARI| 21% rostered on MFL| Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 5-10%|
Benjamin is a back the writer likes more for the long-term. Chase Edmonds is back from injury, so Benjamin’s limited role may dry up for this year, but he is worth stashing with the idea that he may get a greater opportunity in the future. James Conner’s deal expires at the end of the year, meaning Benjamin could get more opportunities next year.
Justin Jackson, LAC| 38% rostered on MFL| Contending 20-50%, Rebuilding 1-10%|
Austin Eckler has been a fumbler in recent weeks and ended up on the COVID list. It will be something to monitor going forward to see if Jackson will start in Week 17. Jackson has the between-the-tackles and receiving skills to carry the load for the Chargers if called upon and showed it with his performance in Week 16. The matchup against the Broncos is not great, as Denver actually defends the run quite well.
WIDE RECEIVER
Byron Pringle, KC| 30% rostered on MFL| Contending and Rebuilding 5-20%
He is a Matt Waldman favorite, but beyond that, he is also in an extremely good organization. It helps that offenses are so focused on stopping the other options in this offense and he often gets single coverage. Pringle should be rostered everywhere as an emergency fill-in option.
K.J. Osborn, MIN| 62% rostered on MFL| Contending 5-10%, Rebuilding 1%
Osborn did an admirable job filling in for an injured Adam Thielen. It looks like that could be the case next week as well, as Thielen re-injured his ankle. The Vikings will play the Packers, who are not especially good at playing the pass.
Isaiah McKenzie, BUF 6% rostered on MFL| Contending 5-10%, Rebuilding 1%|
In one of the biggest surprises of the season, it was McKenzie leading the way for the Bills with Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis out with COVID. It will be hard to trust McKenzie in championship week, especially if Beasley returns. However, if he does not make it back, it might be worth rolling McKenzie out if you are short on options. The Bills will have a great matchup against the Falcons in Week 17.
Josh Palmer, LAC| 29% rostered on MFL| Contending 5-10%, Rebuilding 1-5%|
Palmer is the fill-in for Mike Williams and played that role when Williams sat with COVID. Assuming Williams misses Week 17, Palmer could be a quality emergency play. Beyond that, he might be someone to consider stashing for the future.
Tyler Johnson, TB| 23% rostered on MFL| Contending and Rebuilding 5-10%|
A recommendation in last year’s iteration of The Replacements, Johnson showed last season he could win contested balls. While not technically a starter, Johnson has become more relevant with a season-ending injury to Chris Godwin and a significant hamstring strain for Mike Evans.
Josh Reynolds, DET| 42% rostered on MFL| Contending Watch List Rebuilding 5-10%|
Reynolds was released by the Titans, but resurfaced in Detroit and was the leading receiver on Thanksgiving Day. He followed up with a healthy seven targets in Week 13 and has been getting between two to six balls thrown his way each game since. He landed on the COVID list, so it is unlikely we can use him in the fantasy championship game. However, his long-term appeal remains intact on a team working to rebuild.
Tyron Johnson, LVR| 3% rostered on MFL| Contending Watch List, Rebuilding 1%|
Johnson was added to the Raiders practice squad as a potential developmental option to replace Henry Ruggs. He is very speedy and should be someone we watch with interest as the team heads in a new direction without Jon Gruden.
Collin Johnson, NYG| 6% rostered on MFL| Contending Watch List, Rebuilding 1%|
The Jaguars’ new regime cut Johnson and New York picked him up off waivers. Both Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney have had trouble staying healthy this year. Also, Sterling Shepard’s season just ended again due to injury and Darius Slayton has been banged up regularly. Johnson could easily get more involved going forward as the team evaluates the roster for the remainder of the season. Johnson flashed somewhat in his limited work during his rookie campaign, so he is worth a speculative look. He is currently sitting with a hamstring injury, so he is more of an addition for later.
TIGHT END
Foster Moreau, LVR| 41% rostered on MFL| Contending 5-10%, Rebuilding 5-10%
Moreau is a capable blocker and receiver. Darren Waller’s injury could keep him out for a little while longer, so Moreau is a good choice for desperate teams. The Colts lie ahead on the slate next week. The Colts secondary is more stout against the tight end.
Ricky Seals-Jones, WAS| 41% rostered on MFL| Contending 5-10%, Rebuilding 1%|
Logan Thomas suffered a season-ending ACL and MCL injury. Seals-Jones had himself been sitting with a hip injury but has returned to the lineup. He will be extremely valuable to general managers who need help at the position down the stretch because the offense targets tight ends more often than some others in the league.
Harrison Bryant, CLE| 20% rostered on MFL| Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 5-10%|
Bryant has a bright future and may become what the team hoped David Njoku would develop into. Bryant is starting to get increased targets and is worth stashing away for the day when Njoku and Austin Hooper are no longer on the roster.
Kaden Smith, NYG| 2% rostered on MFL| Contending Watch List, Rebuilding 1-10%|
Evan Engram is often banged up and Smith has demonstrated surprising competency for New York when called upon to fill in. Could he be the future for the team at the position? It is certainly possible and worth taking a flier on. Kyle Rudolph is a mere stopgap for the team. We will see if the team lets Engram move on this offseason and if they trust Smith enough to let him take the role of starter. He is currently dealing with a knee injury that landed him on injured reserve, so his value is almost exclusively to rebuilders.
Out to Sea
Gabriel Davis, BUF| 55% rostered on MFL|
Sanders came back this week and Davis contracted COVID. He's droppable in all but the deepest of leagues.
