- Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 52.5
- Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders - Over/Under 50.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 51.5
- Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 46.5
- Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears - Over/Under 43.5
Favorite Additional Spots
- Browns on the road against the Texans - Implied Team Total 26.75
- Seahawks on the road against the Rams - Implied Team Total 24
- Eagles at home vs. the Titans - Implied Team Total 24.5
|1||Geno Smith||at Rams||$6,100|
|2||Jared Goff||vs. Jaguars||$5,300|
|3||Aaron Rodgers||at Bears||$5,800|
The Rams entire team is a dumpster fire right now. On the offensive side of the ball, their offensive line has been an injury-ravaged mess all season and Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson are all out. On the defensive side of the ball, all-world Aaron Donald won't play. The environment is fantasy friendly this week for Geno Smith against a Rams defense that already ranks 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed. And Smith has been one of the best storylines of the 2022 season. Smith ranks tenth in passing yards per game (254.7) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7) and leads a Seahawks offense that ranks 11th in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), fifth in Success Rate, fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and fifth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF).
The Jaguars at Lions game has the second-highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week and that should come as no surprise as two fun offenses will attack two poor defenses. Jared Goff gets to play at home in the dome against a Jaguars defense that ranks 25h in EPA/Play Allowed, 20th in Success Rate, and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed. His $5,300 price tag looks beneficial when loading up on bankable studs at running back and wide receiver in cash.
Aaron Rodgers isn't listed on the injury report and has an awesome matchup against a Bears team he's owned throughout his entire career. The Bears defense ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed, 28th in Success Rate, and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed. And Rodgers ranks fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Despite the injuries, the $5,800 price tag still looks affordable in this spot.
|1||Derrick Henry||at Eagles||$8,100|
|2||Aaron Jones||at Bears||$6,900|
|3||Kareem Hunt||at Texans||$4,800|
|4||Christian McCaffrey||vs. Dolphins||$8,600|
|5||A.J. Dillon||at Bears||$5,600|
|6||Jamaal Williams||vs. Jaguars||$6,000|
Derrick Henry ranks first in opportunities per game (24.8), second in total yards per game (120.5), and ninth in touchdowns per game (0.9) and gets to attack a very vulnerable Eagles run defense that ranks 27th in Rush EPA Allowed.
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon both have an awesome matchup here against a Bears defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed, 28th in Success Rate, and 17th in Rush EPA Allowed. Jones has the juice and ranks 16th in opportunities per game (17.3) and 17th in total yards per game (93.8) and Dillon looked phenomenal last week turning 11 touches into 88 yards and 1 touchdown. Both running backs will be utilized in the outdoor Midwest stadium in December.
Kareem Hunt averages 11 opportunities per game and that's all he should need to pay off his extremely affordable $4,800 price tag against a Texans defense that ranks 31st in EPA/Play Allowed, 26th in Success Rate, and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed. The Browns offense should have enough success on the ground for Nick Chubb to get his and for Hunt to still post a respectable stat line, especially since they're seven-point favorites.
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