Fantasy Winners
Jalen Hurts (QB-PHI) - Hurts will get to throw to A.J. Brown this year. The Eagles offense just got a lot more difficult to defend, as long as Brown is on the field. This will make Hurts a more efficient passer and give him a better shot to play well enough to convince the Eagles to forego taking a first-round quarterback again next year.
Robert Woods, Treylon Burks (WR-TEN) - Woods becomes the #1 receiver in Tennessee in the wake of the A.J. Brown to Philadelphia trade. He’ll see better corners, but the expected volume boost is more compelling here. The Titans stealing him for a sixth-round pick helps ease the pain of only getting Arkansas WR Treylon Burks (selected with the No. 18 pick acquired from the Eagles) and pick 101 (which got bumped to 69 in the trade down from 26 to 35 with the Jets) for Brown. Woods is coming off of a November ACL tear, but Burks is probably too raw to overtake him in year one. Burks does have the chance to be the eventual No. 1 in Tennessee with Woods turning 30 this month.
Kyler Murray (QB-ARI) - Consider the trade of No. 23 for Baltimore WR Marquise Brown and #100 an olive branch from the front office to Murray and a good sign that his extension will get done before the season. Brown gives Murray a deep threat to replace and arguably upgrade from Christian Kirk in the deep passing game, and a much more impactful addition than any wide receiver they could have gotten with the pick.
Rashod Bateman (WR-BAL), Mark Andrews (TE-BAL) - Losing Marquise Brown will compress the field for the offense, but the boost in targets for Bateman and promotion to clear #1 target for Andrews are more meaningful for fantasy. Bateman might be the biggest fantasy winner of the night.
Chris Olave (WR-NO) - Matt Waldman called it his favorite pick of the night, which is enough for me. Getting to play with fellow Buckeye Michael Thomas with the best quarterback of the four wide receivers to go between the 8th and 12th pick gives Olave momentum to hit the ground running. It’s even more reasonable to take him in the top five of rookie drafts now.
Drake London (WR-ATL) - London gets the honor of going off of the board first in a wide receiver class that placed four players in the top 12 picks. Marcus Mariota isn’t an inspiring quarterback, but London lands somewhere he’ll be the clear #1 receiver basically from day one, and the Falcons should be looking to upgrade at quarterback in the future.
Fantasy Losers
A.J. Brown (WR-PHI) - Brown goes from being the No. 1 in an efficient low-volume pass offense with an underwhelming supporting cast to being the No. 1 in an inefficient low-volume pass offense with a strong supporting cast. Good for him for getting his bag, but the Titans come out okay if they can develop Treylon Burks because they have Robert Woods under contract for a now-suddenly bargain $53 million over the next four years.
Devonta Smith (WR-PHI) - Smith was going to be inconsistent as long as this pass offense was helmed by Jalen Hurts, but when you add A.J. Brown to the mix, the balance could tilt to him being too risky to use when Brown and Dallas Goedert are on the field. Smith is still a great prospect with an arrow pointing up long-term, but his short-term situation is a tough draw for fantasy.
Aaron Rodgers (QB-GB) - The Packers can still add a wide receiver or two later in the draft, but the brute fact is that they didn’t use either of their first-round picks on a wide receiver. It might have been the smart move weighing the quality of wide receivers on the board against the quality on defense, where they used both picks, but Rodgers lost Adams and the team hasn’t done anything significant to replace him.
Patrick Mahomes II (QB-KC) - Like Rodgers, Mahomes saw his No. 1 leave town, and his team only added Marques Valdez-Scantling and Juju Smith-Schuster to address to void left by the departure of Tyreek Hill. The team even moved up to get Washington cornerback Trent McDuffie, who many had going much earlier. The Chiefs' picks on defense in the first round were both high-floor players who are ballers that don’t have ideal measurables, so passing on wide receiver was forgivable. The team could still land boom/bust Georgia wide receiver George Pickens in the second round after they were linked to him in the first. It’s still disappointing that the team didn’t have the chance to take a weapon for Mahomes even though they had two bites of the apple on the first night of the draft.
Ryan Tannehill (QB-TEN) - Tannehill is going to have a harder time making good things happen on Sundays without A.J. Brown. Robert Woods is coming off of an ACL tear and Treylon Burks is a raw rookie, so don’t be surprised if it’s a rough year for Tannehill (and if the team needs to lean a lot on bargain tight end signing Austin Hooper).
Derrick Henry (RB-TEN) - Henry is going to see even more stacked boxes than he has in the past. Titans' opponents are going to dare them to throw the ball, and it could be a long year for this offense in the early stage of the Brown-to-Burks movement.
Trevor Lawrence (QB-JAX) - The Jaguars moved back into the first round to take a linebacker, Utah’s Devin Lloyd, who many had going much earlier, but they won’t pick again until No. 65, so they aren’t going to add a premium player to the offense to help Lawrence as he climbs out of the rubble left by the Urban Meyer debacle.
Jahan Dotson (WR-WAS) - The Penn State product was projected as a late first-rounder going into the draft, which would have put him in the strike zone for Green Bay and Kansas City, but Washington pounced on him at No. 16 after trading down with the Saints. This could be a fallback plan in case they can’t sign Terry McLaurin to an extension, but in the near term, Dotson’s upside is capped as a No. 2 in a low-efficiency, and likely, low-volume pass offense for as long as Carson Wentz is starting.
Draft Fallout
- Trent Baalke changed the NFL in two profound ways. His 4-year, $72 million deal to Christian Kirk helped elevate the wide receiver market and force the hands of teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Tennessee Titans. This changed the complexion of the first round, pushing wide receivers up the board and triggering two big wide receivers are fixing to get paid for first-round pick trades when Marquise Brown became a Cardinal and A.J. Brown became an Eagle. The Jaguars taking Georgia edge rusher Travon Walker at the 1.01 is not a pick every NFL general manager or team would have made, and if a different player had gone first overall, half of the first round or more could have changed.
- You have to root for No. 2 pick, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, and No. 6 pick, offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu, coming back to the place they played their high school football as pros. Both players seemed ecstatic, and both teams have to feel fortunate to have the draft drop these blue-chippers into their laps. Kenny Pickett staying where he played his college ball gets partial credit, as the Steelers took a quarterback at No. 20, but not the one most expected, Liberty’s Malik Willis, who will wait a day to hear his name called.
- The Seahawks traded Russell Wilson for a package centered around the No. 9 pick, in part because they wanted to be a run-heavy offense that doesn’t feature the quarterback. What did they use that pick on? A strong pass-blocking left tackle who isn’t a big asset in the running game.
- The Texans, Giants, and Jets all had great first rounds that should help them dig out of holes left by recent failed regimes. Derek Stingley could be the best player in this draft, and the Texans got him at No. 3. They also recouped three picks between 124 and 166 just to move down two spots from 13 to 15 and landed high floor offensive guard Kenyon Green from Texas A&M. The Giants got the top two players on some boards - Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal, with the fifth and seventh picks, respectively. If Daniel Jones fails, the next quarterback will be set up with bookend tackles taken in two of the last three drafts (Andrew Thomas was the No. 4 pick in 2020). The Jets got a long cover corner in Cincinnati’s Ahmad Gardner (No. 4), a high-ceiling playmaking receiver with Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson (No. 10), and only gave up pick 163 and a bump from 101 to 69 to get back into the first to take Florida State edge rusher Jermaine Johnson, who many had them taking at 10th overall.
- The Eagles leapfrogged the Ravens to get planet-theory defensive tackle Jordan Davis out of Georgia, but the Ravens still got Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, who some had as the best overall player in this draft, only hurt by the lower relative position value of safety. Then they traded Marquise Brown and pick 100 to Arizona for 23, recouped 130 in a trade down to 25, and still got Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum, another baller who was only knocked down the board by low relative position value. Both players will plug in as immediate starters at positions of need. This felt like an Ozzie Newsome draft.
- The Eagles were aggressive to move up for Jordan Davis, a massive athletic defensive tackle who will make every gameplan easier for Jonathan Gannon, and to acquire A.J. Brown. The Giants, Texans, and Jets had more draft capital in the first round, but the Eagles' acquisitions will likely have the most immediate impact, and the Eagles traded out of the first round with the Saints before the draft, so they already have a 2023 first-rounder and 2024 second in their back pocket.
- The Patriots traded down and added an extra third and fourth, but were mocked by the Rams brain trust when they took Chattanooga offensive lineman Cole Strange at No. 29. The Rams have a ring, but shouldn’t forget that the Patriots bested them in a Super Bowl. The Cowboys were also the subject of a blooper moment when Jerry Jones showed a sensitive team document to try to prove that the team had No. 24 pick Tulsa offensive tackle Tyler Smith ahead of two offensive linemen who went before him, and was scolded by his son.
- What is going to happen with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? The team cryptically said Jackson wasn't ready to sign his extension, and then they seemed to set him off by trading his No. 1 receiver. They could choose to have him play under the franchise tag for 2023 and 2024, but this wasn't the development you were looking for if you were hoping that Jackson would sign an extension soon.
