The fantasy offseason is here; this is the time to start reshaping your dynasty rosters. Throughout the college football season, we brought you a big board of the top 36 players eligible for the NFL Draft. Now that we have official declares, we will be bringing back the big board throughout the offseason to get you prepared for your rookie drafts. We also have a podcast here at Footballguys to start preparing you for the offseason draft process that you can find here. Let's take a look at the current class and discuss strategy!
Current Tiers
As the offseason has begun, I have been hosting rookie mocks all of January. As of now, there have been some noticeable trends in terms of player tiers and pick values. Let’s look at those tiers:
1.01 - There seems to be one player in this tier: Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Most managers are lining up the Texas back as their pick, even in Superflex leagues. In the ever-changing landscape of dynasty running backs Bijan seems like the safest pick in the last four years. He immediately becomes a top-3 dynasty asset at the position when he gets drafted and will hold his value significantly through his first season. The only real risk to his value is an injury that isn't predictive. If you hold the 1.01, be patient if you want to sell. You need to treat the pick as an elite dynasty asset. Here are some recent deals surrounding the 1.01 to help you gauge the current market.
- D.J. Moore/1.01 for 1.02/1.05
- 1.01 for 1.03/1.05
- 1.01/4.09 for 1.04/2.10/2024 1st
- 1.01 for 1.06/1.07/1.08
- D'Andre Swift/1.01 for Christian McCaffrey/3.05/4.08/2024 2nd
- 1.01/2.04/Chigoziem Okonkwo for Deshaun Watson/1.09
- 1.01/1.08 for Saquon Barkley/1.03
- 1.01 for Garrett Wilson/1.07
- 1.01 for Deshaun Watson/Noah Fant
- 1.01/2.12 for Javonte Williams/Sam Howell/1.09
- 1.01 for Tua Tagovailoa/Rashod Bateman
- 1.01 for Tua Tagovailoa/1.12
- 1.01/2024 2nd for Cooper Kupp/Matt Corral
1.02-1.07 - The next six picks seem to be the second tier. Based on very early ADP, we are seeing the following players being drafted from the 1.02-1.07: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Anthony Richardson. That is essentially how I have set up my big board above. Everyone else in this tier seems to be draft capital-proof outside of Richardson. Landing spot will determine overall draft positioning but outside of something drastic happening in the pre-draft process, these players look to make up the second tier. If you own a pick in this range, you have a ton of flexibility, especially in Superflex leagues. With many managers needing an upgrade at their quarterback position, the 1.02 and 1.03 will be the most valuable picks in this tier.
1.08-1.12 - This tier will change multiple times throughout the pre-draft process and after landing spots are determined. These are the picks you should be moving for future 2024 firsts if you can. Here is what the first round of 2024 rookie drafts could look like:
- 1.01 - USC QB Caleb Williams
- 1.02 - Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
- 1.03 - Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
- 1.04 - North Carolina QB Drake Maye
- 1.05 - Clemson RB Wil Shipley
- 1.06 - Arkansas RB Raheim Sanders
- 1.07 - Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka
- 1.08 - Georgia TE Brock Bowers
- 1.09 - Texas WR Xavier Worthy
- 1.10 - LSU WR Malik Nabers
- 1.11 - Michigan RB Donovan Edwards
- 1.12 - Texas QB Quinn Ewers
When you look at the top of the 2024 class, shipping any back-end first-round pick in the 2023 class seems like a move you should be looking to make. However, don’t just ship for only a first. Look to grab an auxiliary player you can plug into your lineup this season. That way, you’re not losing out on production in 2023 while also building for the future in 2024. Always look to diversify your assets
Land of the Running Backs
If you are currently playing in a dynasty league, understanding the class narratives will help you make better decisions on your dynasty rosters. One big narrative that all dynasty managers need to understand is how deep this 2023 running back class is. Fifteen running backs can make an impact in the NFL. If you are looking at your rosters and have a bunch of mediocre running backs who are aging, this is the time to start moving them for whatever value you can get now. With this class being so deep at the running back position, there will be a massive shift in the running back landscape in dynasty formats. Realistically there could be ten teams looking for new starting running backs next season, not to mention how many free agents we have at the position. Here are some notable players at the position entering free agency that could impact the fantasy football landscape:
- Saquon Barkley
- Kareem Hunt
- Rashaad Penny
- Jamaal Williams
- Josh Jacobs
- Raheem Mostert
- Miles Sanders
- Jerick McKinnon
- Samaje Perine
- Jeff Wilson
- David Montgomery
- Devin Singletary
- Damien Harris
- Alexander Mattison
- Tony Pollard
You should also be on the lookout for teams who need salary cap relief and cutting their aging running backs for cheaper options in the draft. In my recent video for our youtube channel, I highlighted some current sells in dynasty leagues, and you can find that video here. Based on this depth, there is more value in the 2023 third-rounders than in years past. If you are actively on the trade market, try to get a third-rounder thrown in. While firsts and seconds are being valued at a premium, there is still value in third-round picks.
Current Sleepers
Every season, all fantasy managers and analysts look for the sleepers in the class. Players who may not get a ton of pre-draft buzz but find themselves in a position to increase their fantasy value as the season progresses. Here are some players that you should be watching as the offseason unfolds.
RB Tyjae Spears (RS Jr. - Tulane): 5-foot-10, 195 lbs
Spears had an incredible season in 2022 for Tulane, rushing for 1,581 yards and nineteen touchdowns. While also adding 22 receptions for 256 yards and two touchdowns. The strength that stands out to me about Spears is his natural hands. Spears has arguably the best natural pass-catching ability of everyone in this class. His game against USC in the bowl matchup, where he had 205 yards rushing and four touchdowns, showcased all of his strengths. He has burst, spatial awareness, lateral agility, and great long speed. His only weakness is his size.
RB Israel Abanikanda (Jr - Pittsburgh): 5-foot-11, 215 lbs
Abanikanda’s current projected draft capital does not reflect his talent. The Junior running back rushed for 1,431 yards and twenty touchdowns this season. Thirteen touchdowns were at least 10 yards or more, leading the FBS. His size and frame are paired with a lethal explosiveness that was on full display all season. He can use that explosiveness to exploit defenses who over-commit, and he understands how to manipulate angles on his runs. He has legitimate open-field speed and quick feet. You get a complete running back when you pair that with his strong lower body. Looking at his overall draft profile, he might be the biggest sleeper in this class.
RB Kenny McIntosh (Sr - Georgia): 6-foot-1, 210 lbs
McIntosh stepped up for the Bulldogs this season and has looked like the best running back on the roster. The senior earned more usage towards the end of the season and had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage on the year. Like James Cook did last year for the Bulldogs, he showed the ability to make an impact in the passing game. But he also is a bigger back with the ability to impact a team’s rushing attack. He’s a sleeper you should be watching through the pre-draft process.
WR Puka Nacua (Jr - BYU): 6-foot-2, 205 lbs
If you’re looking for the Christian Watson of the 2023 class, it could be Nacua. He has good size and has some of the best ball skills in the class. His body control is second to no one, and he has highlight reel catches all over his tape. His ability to get his feet down on sideline catches is one of his best traits, and he is, without a doubt, one of the most competitive kids I have scouted. BYU used him all over the field and in their rushing attack. He’s a competitor, and he’ll bring that competitiveness to the next level. He’s also shown flashes as a special teams player and could use that to get on the field faster.
TE Luke Musgrave (Jr – Oregon State): 6-foot-6, 250 lbs
Every season, there is a tight end that I’m higher on than consensus, and this season that player is Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave. Musgrave is the type of player that just works in the NFL. Even though he only played in two games this season, his consensus draft capital in early mocks has him selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. He’s a multisport athlete and comes from an NFL family. His Uncle Bill Musgrave played quarterback in the NFL. He is a versatile weapon who reportedly runs a 4.5 forty-yard dash, and his RAS score will be one of the best in this class. He has long speed and can take the top off of defenses with his speed. He also creates mismatches with his size and play strength. He can be an inline tight end or a player that operates in the slot. There's no limit on how he will be used at the next level. If he gets drafted into a creative offensive system, he could be a TE1.
Buyer Beware
While sleepers are fun to discuss, the more important process is finding players you should avoid drafting. One of the worst mistakes we can make as dynasty managers are using premium picks on assets that do not pan out. Some players that managers have missed on in the past include Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Hakeem Butler, Jalen Reagor, and many more. Knowing what players to avoid based on their profile is important as we head toward rookie drafts. Here are some players you should follow closely to see how their testing numbers and the pre-draft process goes.
QB Will Levis (Sr - Kentucky): 6-foot-3, 232 lbs
The number one word you will hear with Levis this season is “tools.” Levis came into the season as a prospect that scouts were talking about as challenging for the QB1 in the class. After an inconsistent season, there are many questioning that notion. The main issue with Levis and the reason for his drop among some in the draft community is his inconsistencies throughout his game. He has consistently struggled against good competition and has big numbers against inferior opponents in his career. Those issues stem from his anticipation issues and his field awareness. Levis tends to lock onto his pre-snap reads, and many of his bad throws come from his unwillingness to check into other routes. Levis also hesitates on throws, and those timing issues will cause significant issues for him at the next level. Essentially, Levis’ most considerable weaknesses seem to stem from his ability to process defenses and not his physical tools. That's a big red flag for me in my scouting process and one everyone should take note of as this pre-draft process continues.
RB Zach Evans (Jr – Ole Miss): 5-foot-11, 215 lbs
Evans is the wildcard in this class. While he could be one of the best pure runners in this class, he was outplayed by a true freshman this season at Ole Miss. Quinshon Judkins took over that backfield, leaving scouts concerned about Evans's long-term outlook. On the plus side, Evans is an explosive back who is the quintessential north-south runner. When he gets momentum, it takes multiple defenders to take him down, and he has the lateral agility to make defenders miss in the open field. His pre-draft testing will be essential to get day two draft capital.
RB Sean Tucker (Jr – Syracuse): 5-foot-10, 205 lbs
Early reports have Tucker’s draft capital and rankings everywhere. Some have the Syracuse running back as high as RB2; others have him as a late day-two draft pick. In his latest draft update article, the Athletics Dane Brugler has him as his RB14 of the class. His testing numbers, particularly his 40-yard dash, will be crucial as he goes through the draft process. His size will also be a big part of that process. Coming in at a listed 205 pounds is less than ideal, and he’ll need to weigh in over 200 pounds. He’ll also need to work on his vision. Sometimes he struggles to identify his holes and is a hesitant runner at the initial line of scrimmage. It’s a big part of the reason Syracuse schemed him open in various ways.
WR Kayshon Boutte (Jr – LSU): 6-foot-0, 185 lbs
Boutte has shown flashes of his potential throughout his career at LSU. He was a Freshman All-American and set the SEC record for receiving yards in a game in the season-finale against Ole Miss with 308 yards. Boutte again was LSU’s leading receiver in 2021, with 38 catches for 508 yards and nine touchdowns in six games. Unfortunately for Boutte, his season ended in mid-October after he suffered a lower leg injury. That injury knocked him out of all pre-season workouts under new head coach Brian Kelly. The 2022 season was a series of ups and downs for the LSU star, but he showed flashes of WR1 potential. The off-field issues are a concern, and pre-draft interviews will be massive for the former LSU Tiger.
2023 Draft Pick Values
With the NFL offseason here, dynasty leagues will start to ramp up. The whole point of this big board throughout the offseason is to help you identify where the talent in the current class is and start identifying target areas and tiers to trade for. It’s also important to understand market values and what 2023 picks cost in the dynasty market. Below you will find players who are currently being moved for 2023 first-round picks.
2023 Early-1st
- Travis Etienne
- Ken Walker
- Tee Higgins
- Garrett Wilson
2023 Mid-1st
2023 Late-1st
Big-Board Watchlist
- TE Sam LaPorta (Sr - Iowa): 6-foot-4, 249 lbs
- RB Tavion Thomas (Jr - Utah): 6-foot-2, 238 lbs
- WR Jacob Copeland (Jr - Maryland): 6-foot-0, 202 lbs
- WR Trey Palmer (Jr - Nebraska): 6-foot-1, 190 lbs
- WR Jayden Reed (Sr - Michigan State): 6-foot-0, 185 lbs
- RB Chris Rodriguez Jr (Sr - Kentucky): 5-foot-11, 224 lbs
- WR Puka Nacua (Rs Jr - BYU): 6-foot-2, 205 lbs
- WR Jonathan Mingo (Sr - Ole Miss): 6-foot-2, 225 lbs
- WR A.T. Perry (Rs Jr - Wake Forest): 6-foot-5, 205 lbs
- TE Josh Whyle (Sr - Cincinnati): 6-foot-6, 250 lbs
- TE Luke Musgrave (Rs Jr - Oregon State): 6-foot-6, 250 lbs
- TE Zack Kuntz (Rs Jr - Old Dominion): 6-foot-8, 251 lbs
Thank you for reading! Follow me on Twitter @Daboys_22 and check out my archive with Footballguys!
