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The NFL Draft can have a significant impact on player values. In dynasty leagues, additional competition or support from the NFL Draft can have an impact on a player’s dynasty outlook. This article focuses on five quarterbacks who were hurt by the NFL Draft.
Lamar Jackson is hurt by the loss of Marquise Brown. The loss of Brown without a clear addition to the receiving corps brings into question whether Baltimore’s offense changes in 2021. Baltimore dropped back to pass more than any team in the league last season, so a reduction in passing game weapons could signal a change in philosophy. Jackson has shown the ability to produce on low passing volume in prior seasons, but his receiving weapons outside of Mark Andrews are entirely unproven. Jackson is an avoid at the cost of QB6 in the past month in real Superflex dynasty drafts.
Mitchell Trubisky was signed with the idea that he was the starting quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the QB1 of the class, Kenny Pickett, was selected after he fell to Pittsburgh at the 20th pick, giving Trubisky clear competition. The Pickett selection does not make him the foregone conclusion at QB1 but is legitimate competition. Trubisky drew future second-round picks in Superflex trades over the past month, which is a clear loss now. For the cost of a third-round pick, Trubisky has the ability to beat the cost.
Jalen Hurts was helped by Philadelphia’s addition of A.J. Brown. Unfortunately for Tannehill, he is on the losing side of the deal. Tannehill gets the help of Treylon Burks, but there are questions about his readiness. Likewise, Tennessee was speculated to be a potential landing spot for a quarterback but passed on the position until taking Malik Willis in the third round. Tannehill’s upside is hurt by the loss of Brown, but there is not a direct threat to his job from a first-round pick. Since 2019, Tannehill has thrown for 8.1 yards per attempt in games (39) A.J. Brown played and 6.3 yards per attempt in games Brown did not play (6). In his career, Tannehill has thrown for 7.0 yards per attempt in 94 games A.J. Brown did not play, a full yard per attempt less per game. Brown’s impact is real and will be felt in Tannehill’s upside. Expect him to fall from the cost of QB22 over the past month.
The new Chicago Bears regime has been less than enthusiastic about building around Justin Fields. They let Allen Robinson walk in free agency while adding only Byron Pringle and Equanimeous St. Brown in free agency before drafting an unproductive and old prospect in Velus Jones Jr in the third round. If the front office is not convinced Fields is the quarterback of the future, they are giving him every opportunity to fail. At a QB13 cost, there are easy pivots to make including quarterbacks like Russell Wilson or Matthew Stafford who have similar ceilings and much safer floors.
The NFL Draft seemed like the time Baker Mayfield would be traded. Cleveland was rumored to be in negotiations to send Mayfield to Carolina before negotiations broke down over competition. The Panthers then traded up to select Matt Corral and took themselves out of the veteran quarterback market. Mayfield’s options to start in 2022 appear limited, with Seattle the best opportunity to compete for a starting job. Otherwise, Mayfield may need to take a 2021 Trubisky-type backup role before entering free agency in 2023.