Roundtable: Gutsy Playoff Lineup Decisions for Week 16

Photo: Gregory Fisher, USA Today Sports

Welcome to Week 16 of the 2022 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. Topics are now split into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Gutsy Week 16 LIneup Decisions (see below)
• 2022 Fantasy Daydreams and Nightmares
• Early 2023 Predictions: Fill in the Blank
• Difficult Week 16 Calls

FANTASY PLAYOFF Lineup Decisions with Guts

Matt Waldman: Yes, you generally want to stick with your best players. Blah, blah, blah. Still, there are scenarios where you need the guts to deviate from the game plan.

• Give us one top-25 starter at RB or WR that you'd consider benching this week.
• Give us one RB or WR outside the top 35 that you'd consider starting this week.

Go!

Dave Kluge: It makes sense to be conservative in the regular season with lineups. You hope that by starting your best players, you will maintain an above-average score throughout a season and find your way into the playoffs.

Once you get into the playoffs, though, it makes more sense to deviate from the consensus, play hot hands, and look closer at matchups. Last week, for instance, we saw Jerick McKinnon lead all running backs in fantasy scoring.

Over the two previous weeks, he had been a top-three fantasy running back and had a great matchup against the 32nd-ranked run defense. However, his consensus ranking was that of a back-end RB3. Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Nick Chubb were just a few guys who have recently struggled, had tough matchups, and were recommended as plays ahead of McKinnon. But starting one of them could have cost you your week!

Similarly, Zay Jones and Jahan Dotson looked good and had favorable matchups. They both finished as top-10 wide receivers in Week 15, out-performing Garrett Wilson, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, and other highly-touted wide receivers who had some question marks going into their matchups.

You’re playing for the high-end range of outcomes in the fantasy playoffs every week. Ride the hot hands. Jerick McKinnon faces off against a Seattle defense that has been gashed recently. Don’t be scared to start him over Travis Etienne, David Montgomery, or Ezekiel Elliott. Why bench Zay Jones when he’s been red-hot? Chris Olave, Mike Evans, and Amari Cooper have been struggling lately, and Jones currently possesses a higher floor and ceiling. While I advocate for “starting your studs” throughout the regular season, I firmly believe in leaning into momentum in stand-alone must-win playoff matchups.

I don’t think there’s any way you can trot out Antonio Gibson in a matchup this week. Tough matchup against the 49ers aside, the usage scales are tipping in Brian Robinson’s favor more by the week. Robinson got off to a slow start this season, but he looks like a competent three-down back as of late. Over the last three weeks, Gibson is averaging just ten touches for 47 scoreless yards per game.