Rushing Matchups Week 18

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Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Indianapolis vs Houston

The Indianapolis offense is sputtering to the finish line as they head into Week 18. The Colts lost Nick Foles in Week 17 with a rib injury, and backup Sam Ehlinger has been named the starter for Week 18. Along with Ehlinger, the Colts will be starting Zack Moss at running back after Jonathan Taylor was placed on IR two weeks ago. In the past two games since Jonathan Taylor has missed, Zack Moss has 27 of the 37 running back carries, with Deon Jackson (3) and Jordan Wilkins (7) handling the backup duty. While there are always questions of motivation in Week 18, Moss is playing for a 2023 role and is in the midst of a career resurgence after being a gameday inactive at several points with Buffalo earlier this season.

Houston has been a bottom-five rushing defense every week this season. On the year, the Texans have given up the most rushing yards per game (168.6). The list of players who have gashed Houston is long, including 161 yards to Jonathan Taylor in Week 1, 157 yards to Khalil Herbert in Week 3, 143 yards to Josh Jacobs in Week 7, Derrick Henry had 32 carries for 219 yards in Week 9, and 152 yards to Saquon Barkley in Week 10. The team has given up more than 125 yards in 10 of their 11 games since their Week 6 bye. The team has given up 189, 184, and 169 yards in the past three weeks. This is a defense that invested heavily in the draft in 2022, and both Jalen Pitre and Christian Harris have been one of the worst run-stoppers at their position this season. The Texans have 11 draft picks in the 2022 draft class, including five in the first three rounds, and should use some of this draft capital to try to continue to solidify their run defense.

Minnesota at Chicago

Minnesota is incentivized to play out Week 18, as they could lock up a two-seed with a win against Chicago and a 49ers loss. Minnesota is coming off one of their worst performances of the season when they got beat 41-17 by the Green Bay Packers. As a result, Dalvin Cook had his lowest carry total (9) since his injury-shortened Week 2, so he should be fresh for this matchup. Center Austin Schlottmann fractured his fibula in Week 17. Starting center Garrett Bradbury has missed time this season and is hopeful for a return during the playoffs, but he has already been ruled out for Week 18. Offensive tackle Brian O’Neill left with a calf injury.

The Chicago Bears are sputtering toward the finish line of the 2022 season, as they have now lost nine games in a row after a dominant performance against the Patriots. The Bears have given up the second-most rushing yards per game (158.3) and have allowed 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game, the most in the league. Recent performance for the Bears has shown that the team’s trades, along with their injuries, have been too much to handle, as they have allowed 254 rushing yards to Buffalo and 265 rushing yards to Detroit in the past two weeks. The front seven for Chicago needs a complete overhaul, as they have one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL. Justin Jones and Angelo Blackson have both struggled this season, and the Bears are also weak at the linebacker position, especially after trading Roquan Smith and Jack Sanborn’s injury. This is a team that has some glaring holes heading into the 2023 season.

Denver vs LA Chargers

Latavius Murray has been the clear lead back for the Broncos since Week 8 when the Broncos released Melvin Gordon, and he should be motivated to finish out the season strong before he hits free agency in the offseason. Chase Edmonds has returned from injured reserve and has had a limited role in his two weeks with just 6 and 7 carries in those games. Marlon Mack suffered a hamstring injury against the Chiefs, while guard Dalton Risner left the game with an elbow. Both were placed on injured reserve and will miss Week 18. This Broncos team came out and played hard last week against the Chiefs after their abysmal performance two weeks ago on Christmas against the Rams, so look for them to finish the year strong under interim coach Jerry Rosburg.

The Chargers are another team that has made frequent appearances in this article over the past two seasons. While they made offseason moves in bringing in Khalil Mack and Kyle Van Noy, their run defense this season is worse this season than it was in 2021, as they’re allowing seven more yards per game to opposing running backs in 2022 (126) than they did in 2021 (119). The team has performed better as a pass defense of late but is coming off a Week 17 game when they gave up 166 rushing yards to the Rams. The issue for the Chargers is up the middle. The interior of the defensive line has struggled this season, with Morgan Fox and Sebastian Joseph-Day both being weak points, but the real question remains at linebacker as Kenneth Murray continues not to show any improvements in his third season. The Chargers are going to have to make some important decisions about the former first-round pick heading into next season.

LA Rams at Seattle

The Rams have had a strange season this year as they are seemingly looking for answers for a long-term running back. Mid-season, it seemed all but certain that Cam Akers was going to be released or traded. Instead, he has had a career resurgence over the past month, and the team ended up releasing Darrell Henderson back in Week 12. Akers is looking to back who is heading into the offseason looking to lock down a leading role in the Rams offense in 2023. He is coming off back-to-back 110-plus yard rushing performances and has scored six rushing touchdowns in the past five weeks. Kyren Williams and Malcolm Brown have played limited roles in this offense of late as Akers has locked down the starting job.

The Seattle defense has struggled deeply as a run-defending unit, giving up 150.5 rushing yards per game, the third-worst performance against the run this season. The team is coming off back-to-back strong performances, holding Kansas City to only 77 rushing yards in Week 16 and holding the Jets to 75 rushing yards in Week 17. This was a major rebound, as Seattle had allowed at least 170 rushing yards in the four prior games since their Week 11 bye. This is a team that has been decimated by injuries dating back to the start of the season when Jamal Adams was lost for the year, but the Seahawks have 10 defensive players on IR and could be dealing with some additional injuries this week as four of their better defenders in Uchenna Nwosu, Quinton Jefferson, Poona Ford, and Ryan Neal are all not practicing so far this week, and Al Woods, who is the Seahawks space-eating nose tackle, is a limited participant.

Kansas City at Las Vegas

Isiah Pacheco has served as the lead running back for the Chiefs since Week 10, posting double-digit carries except in Week 17, when he had nine carries. While the volume has been there for Pacheco, he has only rushed for 100 yards once (Week 11), and he has only scored three touchdowns since Week 10. One injury to keep an eye on this week is the health of guard Joe Thuney, who re-aggravated an ankle injury and left in Week 17, although he is a limited participant in practice this week. The bright spot of the Chiefs' season has been their offensive line led by Creed Humphrey, who in just his second season, has elevated himself to arguably the best center in football, while Thuney and Trey Smith are strong run blockers at the guard position.

With how disappointing the Raiders' season has been, the one thing that they haven’t done is not quit this season, as each of their last nine games has been within a touchdown, win or lose. While for most of the season, this has been a league-average defense; it is a defense that is starting to crumble based on the injuries at the linebacker position as Denzel Perryman, who had been the glue holding the linebacker unit together, went down in Week 16. This has been a continuing problem for the Raiders, as they have now lost Perryman, Divine Deablo, Jayon Brown, Blake Martinez, and likely Darien Butler, who suffered a concussion last week. The team also placed defensive end Chandler Jones on IR with an elbow injury in Week 17. At some point, the injuries just become overwhelming, as the team gave up 206 rushing yards to the Patriots in Week 15, 106 to the Steelers in Week 16, and 170 to San Francisco in Week 17.

Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups

Arizona at San Francisco

The Cardinals turned to their fourth starting quarterback of the season with David Blough in Week 17, and Blough will once again get the nod over Trace McSorley. At the running back position, James Conner has been the clear lead back the past two months and one of the most reliable sources of volume in the league, carrying the ball at least 14 times in the past seven games. One thing to be concerned about with Conner is his health, as prior to last week, he was on the field for an average of 92% of the plays since Eno Benjamin went down with an injury. Last week, Conner was on the field for just 55% of the snaps and did not participate in practice on Wednesday. It is very likely that with the Cardinals having nothing to play for, Conner may not see his full complement of snaps which could have a trickle-down effect on his total carries.

Despite last week’s performance, the 49ers still have the toughest run defense in the league. Even though the total score from last week looks bad, the run defense remained solid as they allowed just 101 yards rushing to the Raiders running back, which was the most since Week 6 for the 49ers, but still a very respectable number that is still below the Raiders average of 120 yards. The team has gotten healthy in recent weeks, including the return of linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair from injured reserve, and the results have been dominant. The 49ers had not allowed more than 80 yards rushing to an opponent since Week 7 before surrendering 135 rushing yards to the Raiders in Week 17. The team has only allowed 100 rushing yards four times, with a season-high of 168 in Week 6 to Atlanta. Overall, San Francisco has given up the fewest rushing yards per game in the league this season (78.8). This is a defense that has the best front seven in the NFL, as it is led by linebacker Fred Warner and defensive end Nick Bosa. Both are playing at an All-Pro level this season.

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Since his return to the Baltimore lineup in Week 14, J.K. Dobbins has taken the lead for Baltimore as he has at least 12 carries in each game and has been the lead ball carrier in each week. Gus Edwards saw his role diminish to just three carries in Week 17, with the coaching staff expressing displeasure about his limited role after the game, as Justice Hill has now out-snapped Edwards in two of the last three weeks. The Ravens offensive line has been a strength this season as rookie center Tyler Lindenbaum has been one of the best rookie offensive linemen this season, while veteran guard Kevin Zeitler is playing at a high level as he has throughout most of his career. The Ravens will again be without Lamar Jackson, and John Harbaugh was not willing to answer questions about his availability throughout the playoffs, so this team needs to quickly get right offensively as they have not scored more than 20 points in their last five games.

Cincinnati’s run defense has been a key to their second-half resurgence that has been a key contributor for the Bengals to win seven games in a row. Defensive tackle D.J. Reader has been the MVP on this defense. Since he has come back, the Bengals are allowing just 76 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs compared to allowing 97 yards per contest when he was out. Reader’s return has elevated the play of linebackers Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson, who have both been strong run-stopping linebackers over the last several weeks. The big question this week for the Bengals is where they are at mentally as they are coming off of playing against the Bills and witnessing the horrendous injury that has the entire NFL praying for Damar Hamlin and his recovery.

Jacksonville vs Tennessee

Jacksonville will face Tennessee on Saturday Night for the AFC South title and the four seed in the AFC playoffs. Travis Etienne should play a prominent role and is coming off a 108-yard, one-touchdown performance in a win against Houston. Etienne had a limited role, as the game had no impact on Jacksonville’s playoff chances. In the prior four games, Etienne had at least 13 carries and had 25 total touches in Week 16 against the Jets. Etienne has been a big reason the Jaguars are in playoff contention and have won four straight heading into this week as he has topped 80 yards in each of his last three games, but there is some cause for concern heading into this matchup as he was held to just 32 yards on 17 carries four weeks ago against this same Titans defense.

The Tennessee Titans are in the midst of a six-game losing streak, but it has not been the fault of their run defense. After giving up over 200 yards to the Giants in Week 1 and 101 yards to Buffalo in Week 2, Tennessee has been an elite run defense. The Titans have not allowed a running back to top 60 yards since Week 3, as they’ve shut down the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, Travis Etienne, Aaron Jones, and Jonathan Taylor twice. The Titans dominated this matchup back in Week 14, holding Travis Etienne to just 32 yards on 17 carries as the Jaguars needed to turn to their passing game against the Titans in order to pull off the victory. The Titans are led by one of the best defensive lines in football led by All-Pro caliber defensive end Jeffery Simmons, but what is unique about the Titans is that safety Kevin Byard is an elite run-stopping safety who will often shift down into the box as 35% of his snaps this season have been in the box in obvious running situations.

New Orleans vs Carolina

The Saints have been eliminated from playoff contention, so their motivations in Week 18 are something to monitor up until game time. Alvin Kamara has 21, 20, and 16 carries in the past three games but has only scored two rushing touchdowns on the season. While the Saints are entirely in talent evaluation mode, they come into the week with a three-game winning streak and are looking to close out the year on a positive note. One player to keep an eye on this week is the health of Ryan Ramcyzk as the three-time All-Pro tackle missed last week with a hip injury but was a limited participant on Thursday, indicating he could play and this team has far from shut it down heading into Week 18.

The Panthers this season are a team that has had a few blowup games, notably with Joe Mixon rushing for 153 yards and 4 touchdowns, but over the course of the second half of the season, this is a defense that has been a changed unit as Steve Wilks did a tremendous job in getting the Panthers into playoff contention before losing last week. Since Week 10, the Panthers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and are allowing just 71 yards rushing per game to the position. The Panthers shut down the Saints back in Week 3 as they held the Saints to just 79 yards between Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Defensive tackle Derrick Brown continues to be the bright spot as he has elevated his game in his third season with the team as the space-eating defensive tackle has emerged as a premier run-stopper this season. One thing to keep an eye on is the health of defensive tackle Matt Ioannidis, who is a great complimentary piece to this defense, as he did not practice on Thursday and is questionable heading into this week.

NY Jets at Miami

The Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention but still could have a major impact in the AFC playoff race with a victory against the Dolphins. The team’s offensive line could be an absolute mess for this game as Duane Brown, George Fant, and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif all appear unlikely to play at this point due to injury as they have not practiced as of Thursday, while Nate Herbig, who missed last week, has been a limited participant so far this week and is questionable. The backfield was a clear Zonovan Knight backfield in Weeks 12 through 14, but he has not run for 30 yards in a game since and was outgained by Ty Johnson in each of the past two games. Michael Carter’s role in the run game has been surprisingly limited, as he has not had five carries in a game since Week 14. Knight has been struggling mightily as he is averaging just 1.8 yards-per-carry over the last three weeks, so if you’re looking for a running back to emerge out of this group for Week 18, it seems reasonable that the Jets could give an extended look at Ty Johnson as they’re evaluating players for 2023 to compliment Breece Hall when he returns.

The Dolphins are sputtering to the finish line as they have lost five straight games, but still do have a chance at a playoff spot with a win and a Patriots loss. While the team has been struggling, the run defense has been one of the few bright spots for the Dolphins, as they are coming off three straight weeks where no running back topped 50 yards. This defense has been strong all season, as no running back has topped 100 yards against the Dolphins, and they’re averaging just 70 yards rushing to opposing running backs which is third in the NFL this season. A big reason for the success in Miami has been their defensive line which, since acquiring Bradley Chubb, has been one of the best in football as Chubb compliments the elite play of Christian Wilkins and Jaelen Phillips. This defense will be desperate to keep themselves in the playoff hunt and will be relied upon for a big performance here in Week 18.