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Sunday Morning Update:
9:39 AM EST
Here is what we know so far. The running back pool is quickly consolidating into just a couple of players.
- Kareem Hunt appears that he will miss this week, although he's going to try to test it in warmups. This vaults Jerome Ford up to one of the top value running backs on this slate.
- Zach Charbonnet is out this week, Deejay Dallas will serve as the backup, but what this really means is that the Seahawks should be using Kenneth Walker as much as he can handle on this slate. He's the top high-rostered player of Walker, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Isiah Pacheco
- Zach Evans does not appear that he will have a major role this week, as it looks like Darrell Henderson will get the starting role for the Rams. Do not play Evans.
Know Your Opposition
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Key Injuries for Week 7
There are several critical injuries this week and some scenarios that we are still keeping an eye on.
- The Rams backfield is a mess. They’ll be without their top two running backs this week as the team is without both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers. The problem is that the team has a backfield that is now crowded with guys as Zach Evans, Royce Freeman, Darrell Henderson, and Myles Gaskin are all vying for carries. It seems likely that Henderson, who started for the team earlier this season, and Zach Evans would be most likely to get the carries, but it’s such an unknown that it is probably just a stay-away unless you want to take a chance in a GPP.
- DK Metcalf is a game-time decision with a hip injury. This is a tough one if he misses, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will become one of the best plays on this slate.
- Deshaun Watson is questionable with his shoulder injury. He was a full participant on Friday, which should indicate that he will play this week. If he plays, Amari Cooper becomes somewhat interesting, while the Colts' defense becomes somewhat interesting if Watson is out, although the Browns will likely take a more run-heavy approach which could benefit Jerome Ford.
- Roschon Johnson has been ruled out with a concussion that he suffered almost 2.5 weeks ago at this point. D’Onta Foreman will get the start while Darrynton Evans likely will see some playing time as we saw them split the backfield last week. Foreman looked more than competent as he had 15 carries for 63 yards last week, and at just $4,800 could be a nice value play in Week 7.
- David Montgomery will miss this week with a rib injury, while Craig Reynolds is banged up with a hamstring and toe injury that could limit him. Jahmyr Gibbs should be the highest rostered player on this slate at just $6,200 the price is crazy. The matchup is difficult against Baltimore, but Gibbs as the primary guy in this backfield is still worth the $6,200 price this week.
- Justin Fields will miss this week with a thumb injury. Tyson Bagent will get the start. Bagent looked fine in relief of Fields completing 10/14 passes last week. D.J. Moore should still be a good play this week as Moore had 8 targets last week.
- Jimmy Garoppolo will miss this week with a back injury. Brian Hoyer will get the start which should not impact the Raiders all that much this week. Davante Adams has come out and vocally complained about not being involved in the game plan, so we will see if the Raiders take a more proactive approach after Adams had just 5 targets last week. Michael Mayer at tight end was a breakout player last week as the rookie tight end had 5 receptions for 75 yards.
Slate Overview- Week 7 Thoughts- Small, Low-Scoring Slate
Week 7 is one of the worst slates of the year, but that ultimately should create opportunity. This week, there are only two teams that are projected to score more than 25 points (Kansas City and Seattle), so it is currently going to be a slate in which every touchdown is going to matter.
What this means is that fewer players are must-starts, as with limited touchdowns, every yard, catch, and touchdown is going to be even more critical than it is on most weeks. This is where percent rostered could be even more important this week. Normally, if a player is 20%+ rostered, that player has the opportunity to completely change the slate as they’re typically underpriced with massive upside. This week, the high-rostered players are all players who are mostly just volume players who are in good matchups such as Kenneth Walker or Isiah Pacheco.
When it comes to GPP’s, far too often certain content creators just say “Fade the high-rostered players”. It’s easy, it’s not all that sophisticated, and often they’re just repeating what they hear from other people. Roster percentage is important to understand, but bad GPP players just take too many dart throws in their roster. Take a couple of players who are less than 10% rostered, and one player who is less than 5% rostered is often good enough as long as those players have the upside to get 4-5x their salary. Taking a player who is less than 5% rostered just because they’re less than 5% is a bad way to build a lineup. If you can’t find someone that you believe in that is less than 5%, then it’s better to take a roster with a higher roster percentage than it is to take a roster without upside.
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