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Zach Charbonnet has some Nick Chubb to his game, and they have very similar heights and weights, with Charbonnet being 6-foot-0 and 214 pounds. Charbonnet has exciting athleticism for a player as big, physical, and tough as he is. He's decisive as he gets north and south quickly, breaks tackles, and also has the ability to make defenders miss (impressive stutter steps in the open field). Charbonnet produced as a true freshman at Michigan back in 2019, running for 726 yards and 11 touchdowns, but it wasn't until he transferred to UCLA in 2021 that his collegiate career took off. In his junior and senior seasons at UCLA, Charbonnet totaled 2,496 rushing yards, 27 rushing touchdowns, 61 receptions, and 518 receiving yards. Charbonnet doesn't profile as a receiving back, but those 61 catches in two years help his case of being a workhorse/250+ touch player in the NFL, which is absolutely in his range of outcomes.
Charbonnet appears to be locked in for Day 2 draft capital. NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah has him as a top 50 prospect in this class and calls him "a Day 1 starter." Pro Football Focus has him ranked as their #3 running back in this class. So with that in mind, let's take a look at the best second- or third-round landing spots for Charbonnet:
Cincinnati Bengals, Picks 60 and 92
Samaje Perine left in free agency, and Joe Mixon is currently facing aggravated menacing charges over accusations he pointed a gun at a woman during a road rage incident in January. Rumors are swirling Mixon will be cut if he does not take a pay cut, and with his pending legal troubles, he might no longer be a Bengal either way. Cincinnati would save $10,011,754 in cap space this season if Mixon is released after June 1st. This is an ideal landing spot for both rookie production and exciting value throughout the entirety of a rookie deal. If selected by the Bengals, Charbonnet would be expected to contribute right away and would also be viewed as the starting running back of the future in Cincinnati. And he'd be tied to a Bengals offense led by superstar Joe Burrow that ranked fifth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) last season. This is the dream scenario that would cause both Charbonnet's dynasty and redraft stocks to skyrocket.
Atlanta Falcons, Picks 44 and 75
It's no secret Arthur Smith wants to establish the run. The Falcons led the NFL in rush attempts (559) and ranked third in rushing yards (2,718) last season. Cordarrelle Patterson is now 32 years old and is on his last legs in Atlanta, and Tyler Allgeier was selected in the fifth round a season ago. We see late-drafted running backs perform well as rookies and still get replaced all the time, with Elijah Mitchell and Michael Carter as two of the more recent examples. Bijan Robinson is thought to be on the shortlist for Atlanta's pick in the first round, but if they go in another direction and then select Charbonnet on Day 2, his workhorse ability could lead to extremely valuable fantasy production in a run-first environment.
Allgeier was impressive as a rookie, ranking ninth in Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt (0.75), eighth in Rush Percent Over Expected/Success Rate (45.6), sixth in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.58), and sixth in Elusive Rating (88.7). This is worth keeping in mind because if the Falcons don't draft a running back on day one or two, Allgeier should immediately become a target. But if Atlanta does add to the room with Charbonnet, Allgeier's impressive rookie campaign should shine a light on the rushing value in general that Smith's offense brings to the table.
Miami Dolphins, Picks 51 and 84
The Dolphins were one of the best stories of the 2022 season, especially when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy. Mike McDaniel proved he's an offensive mind that improves the fantasy stock of the entire unit, leading Miami to a seventh-place ranking in EPA/Play. Both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson enjoyed success in the Dolphins' backfield last year, but Mostert has an injury history and will play the 2023 season at 31. And Wilson is a solid committee back but nothing more. If drafted by Miami, Charbonnet would likely start slow as a rookie but could potentially take over the backfield toward the end of the season, when it matters most for fantasy. And the expectation would be he would become the primary back no later than 2024.
Philadelphia Eagles, Picks 62 and 94
Jalen Hurts just signed a five-year, $255,000,000 contract, locking him into Philadelphia just a year after he led the Eagles to the Super Bowl and led an offense that ranked third in EPA/Play. Hurts' dual-threat ability puts major stress on a defense, which contributed to Philadelphia's offense ranking first in both Rush EPA/Play and Rush Success Rate a season ago. Miles Sanders thrived in this environment, rushing for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns. But Sanders is now a Carolina Panther, and his replacement, Rashaad Penny, is only on a one-year deal and has a lengthy injury history. Meanwhile, Kenneth Gainwell is a solid complimentary back but nothing more. Charbonnet's value would increase in both redraft and dynasty should he land in one of the most exciting offenses in the entire league.
Tennessee Titans, Picks 41 and 72
This landing spot likely wouldn't increase Zach Charbonnet's value in year one unless Tennessee were to trade Derrick Henry, which has been reported as something the Titans are trying to do. But the odds of Henry being traded this offseason are low. Still, Henry is in the final year of his deal, and with Tennessee in somewhat of a rebuild, it would be a shock to see then-30-year-old Henry return to the team in 2024. With this kind of draft commitment, Charbonnet would project as Mike Vrabel's workhorse running back in 2024 and beyond, keeping his dynasty stock extremely valuable for those managers who are able to look into the future a bit.
