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NFL free agency is a significant catalyst for Dynasty value change. Our staff gathered to identify potential Dynasty trade targets and players you could buy low or sell high. This section is about quarterbacks with falling Dynasty values.
Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay and Sam Howell, Washington
Jason Wood - I'll give you a pair because they're in similar situations. Kyle Trask and Sam Howell entered free agency as the presumptive first-time starters on rebuilding teams. Both were unproven but had the chance to cement long-term roles. While both still have that opportunity, in theory, the signings of Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay) and Jacoby Brissett (Washington) speak volumes. Neither of those veterans is good enough to be a starter for a contender, but they see themselves as starters with something to prove. They didn't sign with these teams to be No. 2s and mentor the younger starters.
Matt Montgomery - Howell was a darling pick for best case scenario, but the signing of Brissett gives me cause for concern. Signing a backup of his caliber may mean the team feels Howell is not a slam dunk to be their future, which is a Dynasty manager's nightmare for a quarterback. There is also ownership uncertainty, and a new regime could mean new players/coaches. That and the team's lack of urgency in adding additional offensive talent to surround their new guy, I think Howell may be very pedestrian or worse. I wouldn’t move heaven and earth to get him and likely would let him go in start-up drafts as well. He’s not worth the risk.
Dan Hindery - The talk of Kyle Trask getting a shot to start in Tampa Bay always seemed far-fetched. Given the signing of Baker Mayfield (plus the potential of a rookie added to the mix), it seems like even more of a long shot that Trask will be the starter.
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Andy Dalton, Carolina
Dave Kluge - It’s hard to imagine that we see much fantasy relevance from Andy Dalton in the twilight of his career. Now 35 years old, he has almost no path to success. He’s on a Carolina Panthers team bereft of offensive weapons and holding the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. The best-case scenario is that the Panthers draft a raw quarterback in Will Levis or Anthony Richardson, and Dalton gets to start all of 2023 as a bridge option. Even then, this team probably doesn’t light up the scoreboard. Unless the Panthers use their second-round pick on a rookie receiver, Terrace Marshall sits atop the current depth chart. Hayden Hurst could realistically slot in as the team’s primary pass-catcher. But the worst-case scenario is that the team drafts a pro-ready quarterback, Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, and Dalton sits on the bench as a backup for two years before retiring.
Trey Lance, San Francisco
Ben Cummins - I’m not necessarily saying this should be the case, but it is: Trey Lance’s value is dropping. Brock Purdy was a pleasant surprise last season and reportedly underwent successful surgery on his torn UCL on March 10th. Reports are currently positive Purdy will be ready for the regular season opener. And the 49ers also signed Sam Darnold in free agency. Lance is no lock to be the starter for the 49ers for the entire year or even to begin the 2023 season. Now, let’s dive a bit deeper. Darnold was only signed to a one-year $4.5 million contract. That’s a deal I would argue all 32 teams should’ve been trying to make. And despite current positive reports about Purdy, there is no guarantee he’s ready for the season opener, so Darnold could be more of an insurance signing than it appears. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder in this situation, and I recommend looking into selling Lance in Dynasty.
Carolina and Houston’s Draft Picks
Gary Davenport - We don’t know who the first two picks in the 2023 NFL Draft will be. But we do know that whoever those youngsters are, they will face an uphill battle. D.J. Moore was shipped to Chicago as part of the trade that landed the Panthers the first overall pick. The Texans also sent their No. 1 receiver packing, dealing Brandin Cooks to the Cowboys. Carolina and Houston may possess the two worst groups of pass-catchers in the entire NFL. And having Adam Thielen or Robert Woods as your go-to target won't make acclimating to the pros any easier.
Sam Darnold, San Francisco
Andy Hicks - Making life difficult for Dynasty managers was Sam Darnold moving to San Francisco. He finished 2022 with some great games for the Panthers and should have been challenging for a starting job on a needy team. He will be the backup to Trey Lance, with Brock Purdy lurking on his recovery from a late-season torn UCL. Maybe this is a long-term development mission for Darnold, but Dynasty managers are in for a lost year and an uncertain future.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
Chad Parsons - Tua Tagovailoa already had risk with his concussions and injury history entering the offseason. Having good vibes with Tagovailoa in Dynasty is difficult as Miami splashed the backup quarterback spot again with a notable player in Mike White. One prism is this is what contenders should do to insulate themselves at the most important position in football. The other view is Tagovailoa is at risk of the next big hit turning into a rest-of-the-season (or longer) absence. White's addition does nothing to quell Dynasty concerns versus Tagovailoa's top-15 (ish) quarterback valuation.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Joey Wright - I am officially in panic mode with Lamar Jackson, and it has nothing to do with his talent on the field. The Baltimore Ravens placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on him with no long-term contract in sight. The Ravens have also done nothing to bring in any support through receiving options or protection for Jackson through free agency this offseason. My hopes for a departure from Baltimore via trade seem stifled due to how the non-exclusive franchise tag limits his options. At this point, my hopes are turning into my greatest fear: Lamar Jackson sitting out the 2023 season.
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
Will Grant - As recently as early March, rumors continued to swirl that Matthew Stafford would retire. Publically the Rams has said he's one of the key players they want to continue to build around. Privately they have to wonder how good he will be even if he returns. Anyone with Cooper Kupp as their #1 option has to be considered a reasonable fantasy quarterback, but Stafford is 35, heading into his 14th NFL season, and already has his Super Bowl ring. Maybe he can rekindle the drive that took the Rams to the promised land two seasons ago, but his upside is very limited. And his downside potential could be zero if he retires before the season starts.
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