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NFL free agency is a significant catalyst for dynasty value change. Our staff gathered to identify potential dynasty trade targets and players you could buy low or sell high. This section is about tight ends with falling dynasty values.
Mike Gesicki, New England
Jason Wood - Mike Gesicki reunites with Bill O'Brien, who recruited him to Penn State. But that doesn't assuage concerns as he steps into a conservative offense with a below-average quarterback and an entrenched tight end (Hunter Henry) who is as talented, if not more, than Gesicki. It's nearly unheard of for an offense to support two fantasy-worthy tight ends, and Gesicki and Henry likely commoditize each other.
Chad Parsons - The rangy pass catcher had a largely invisible year for Miami last season and was finally free to find a new opportunity. A low-level one-year contract in New England hardly affirms a rise back to fantasy promise. Hunter Henry is a stable starting option, and New England is not a strong enough passing offense to support much more than Henry, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and dabbling production from Gesicki or Tyquan Thornton. Gesicki is now only relevant in tight-end-premium formats.
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Cole Kmet, Chicago
Dave Kluge - Cole Kmet was a dynasty darling. He was drafted early by the Bears and has shown signs of promise throughout his short career. But the additions of D.J. Moore and Robert Tonyan Jr have damaged his value. In one week, Kmet went from the projected #2 pass-catcher to a tight end splitting snaps behind a surprisingly deep wide receiver corps on a run-first team. Tonyan isn’t an extraordinary player, but his overlap in skillset will certainly limit Kmet’s snaps. Kmet is still young, and his talent is undeniable. But his path to any fantasy relevance is likely still a few years away.
Gary Davenport - For a time last year, it appeared that the fantasy light bulb was coming on for Kmet—his receptions and yardage were down relative to his rookie year, but after failing to find the end zone in 2021, Kmet rode seven touchdowns to a TE7 fantasy finish. Those were good times, but they were also as good as they will get. Adding Robert Tonyan Jr in free agency isn’t the only problem—or even the biggest one. Kmet did last year’s damage on 69 targets, and Tonyan is a perfect example of how likely that is to repeat. The Bears brought in D.J. Moore, who should theoretically lead the team in targets by a sizable margin. And last year, the Bears were the only team in the NFL that threw the ball fewer than 400 times. Kmet was fun while he lasted. But the party’s over.
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