Shaheed’s value is wholly dependent on whether he catches a deep ball, which is relatively rare with Carr under center. The slot/return man has cleared 30 yards in just 3 of his 12 games, and he’s already ceded some downfield opportunity to Perry. The sixth–round rookie has recorded catches of 44, 30, and 23 yards over the past month, and he’s certainly earned his way onto the field with Olave.

Tight End

Taysom Hill (Captain Only)
Juwan Johnson (FLEX)
Jimmy Graham (FLEX)

As the gadget man, Hill will always be a dice roll. He drew noticeable targets when Johnson missed several weeks at midseason, but he's handled the ball just 29 times over 4 games since. And he’s priced as a backup quarterback and touchdown specialist, so those using him to differentiate will be somewhat handcuffed.

Johnson comes fresh off his second double-digit DK day of the year, catching 2 balls for 38 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win. That should tell all you need to know about his potential to erupt tonight. Johnson has drawn all of 17 targets over his last 7 games and isn’t involved near the goal line.

Short-yardage work tends to go to Graham, who’s caught short touchdowns in three straight weeks. He’ll be a wildly popular filler tonight, but his floor is literally zero, which he’s posted in 6 of his 10 games thus far.

Under the Radar

Lynn Bowden Jr(FLEX)

Bowden will likely return to the bench (and special teams) upon Olave’s return, though perhaps he’s earned more work in the slots and the flats.

Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford (CPT or FLEX)

Stafford has seen both his volume and his efficiency ramp up of late. It’s lined up nicely with Kupp’s return to full health: over the past 4 weeks, Stafford has averaged 265 yards and fired 12 touchdowns. Only three teams have thrown the ball in the red zone more than the Rams, and their bevy of skill talent is more than capable of converting it into fantasy gold.

Stafford will be widely used tonight, so the question is whether to Captain him or one of his weapons. I’m leaning his way to avoid having to sift through that bin, His red-zone activity pushes him over the top: even if this becomes a low-scoring, Kyren Williams-dominated game, Stafford will find himself in a position to throw short touchdowns. And I’d much rather cash in on those touchdowns without having to guess who’ll catch them.

Running Back

Kyren Williams (CPT or FLEX)
Royce Freeman (FLEX)

Williams should pepper just about every roster tonight, and it won’t be wise to be caught without him. He’s produced upper-tier numbers (114.5 scrimmage yards per game) with an iron grip on the Rams backfield (76% of touches), and he’s found the end zone 11 times in 10 games. To top it off, he’ll face one of 2023’s most disappointing run defenses in New Orleans. They’ve allowed 140+ ground yards in 5 of their last 7 games.

Yes, in most cases, that adds up to a picture-perfect fade candidate. The narratives will drive the public to Williams en masse, so there is some theoretical value in looking elsewhere. It’s just difficult to imagine a game script that doesn’t involve 25+ touches, plus a handful of touchdown chances, being given to Williams. He’s the centerpiece in any type of battle, and it’s highly unlikely he won’t reach value tonight. He’s more or less required viewing: you won’t benefit much from using him, but you’ll likely avoid catastrophe.

Freeman has stuck as the lightly-used backup. Over the past three weeks, as Williams has rounded back into health, Freeman (the only other Ram back to touch the ball) has managed just 25 yards on 10 touches.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp (CPT or FLEX)
Puka Nacua (CPT or FLEX)
Tutu Atwell (FLEX)

Kupp is back, to an extent. Thanks to the emergence of Nacua, we may no longer see the 15-target days of Kupp’s magical 2021. Kupp may have rushed back a bit from his preseason hamstring injury, but he’s worked back up to a 24% target share. As a result, he’s posted back-to-back games of 8 catches and 110+ yards, with a touchdown in each one.

Nacua’s target share has been just as consistent: he’s drawn 7+ targets in every game thus far, though he hasn’t cleared 9 since Week 7. But he certainly lacks the ceiling he boasted early in the year. Nacua averaged 107 yards over his first 7 games, yet he’s topped 80 just twice since.

Many rosters will cram in both receivers, so we’ll need to find a different way to be unique. Between the two, I’ll give the edge to the historically great Kupp, whose track record with Stafford is more conducive to a blowup. And if I only play one GPP lineup, I may pair him with the all-but-forgotten Atwell, who’s now cleared concussion protocol. Atwell has lost most of his early-season volume and luster, but he’s still sent deep often (11.9 aDOT) and should fly largely under the radar tonight.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee (FLEX)

Higbee has settled into a consistent, if uninspiring, role as the No. 3 or 4 option for the tightly-concentrated Rams. His eruption in Weeks 2 and 3 (10 catches, 135 yards) seems like decades ago. He’s only reached double-digit DK points once since then: a Week 12 blowout win that saw Higbee turn 2 of his 5 short catches into touchdowns.

Under the Radar

Demarcus Robinson (FLEX)

Robinson was seeing elevated snaps even before Atwell left Week 14 with a concussion. He’s now caught multiple balls in five straight games, and he’s found the end zone in each of the last three. There’s a solid chance that he’s already displaced Atwell and will be a homerun threat going forward.

Kickers & Defenses

These are both middle-of-the-pack red-zone teams, so there’s not much edge to be found in the kickers. There’s no reason to expect a barrage of field goals, and neither Blake Grupe nor Lucas Havrisik offers much accuracy or leg strength.

Defenses are always in play for Showdown when (a) Vegas expects a low-scoring slog, and/or (b) one of the two quarterbacks is objectively bad. Neither is the case here, and it must be noted that the Rams sit 31st league-wide in forcing turnovers – and that both teams sack quarterbacks at a bottom-10 rate.