What the Betting Market Tells Us: TE Props

Photo: Joshua Lindsay, USA Today Sports

Sportsbooks frequently post lines on season-long individual performances. These bets are known as prop bets. By studying the prep betting market, there is a lot to learn about trends and expected player performance. Below running back situations that have valuable information in their prop betting markets.

Quick links to all positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends

Travis Kelce Is Dominant

Travis Kelce has a DraftKings yardage prop of 1150.5. By comparison, that is 325 yards more than Mark Andrews, who is the second tight end in yardage. The gap is as big as Mark Andrews to Tyler Higbee (500.5). While Kelce will turn 34 in October, he still has the eighth-best odds to lead the league in receiving yards (+2200) and is a true difference-maker at the position. His ability to dominate the position makes him an elite option in redraft as well as a good target in dynasty formats where opposing dynasty GMs are concerned about his age.

Kyle Pitts' Prop Is a Problem

Kyle Pitts has been a limited participant in Atlanta's routes through the first two preseason games. Of the team's first-team dropbacks, Pitts has only run routes on 50% and has been targeted on only 11% of the first-team offense's targets. Pitts's limited route participation is a concern that has not shown up in the passing market, as his yardage prop of 700.5 which has remained consistent this offseason. Pitts's yardage prop of 700.5 is 26.9% of Desmond Ridders's passing yardage prop, which is by far the highest yardage prop as a percentage of the tight end's starting quarterbacks prop. Of the tight ends with props, Pitts has the quarterback with the least security, so Ridders's low prop is likely inflating Pitts's percentage of passing yardage prop, but Pitts is substantially higher than Kelce (24%) and Andrews (23.6%). For Pitts to meet his prop in a low passing-yardage offense, he will need to see a much more expanded role in the regular season than he has with the first-team offense this preseason.