Photo: Katie Stratman, USA Today Sports

Join the Footballguys Daily Update

Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.

Subscribe Now

The landscape of the running back position is rapidly changing. Teams use players with specific skill sets in fine-tuned roles, and the bell cow running back is going out of style. Often, that makes it more challenging to identify high-value fantasy performers. In 2010, eleven running backs eclipsed the 275-carry threshold. In 2022, just seven backs hit that mark. Hall of Fame Coach Bill Parcells is famous for many reasons, but his work on player archetypes and insistence on NFL teams drafting players that fit the ideal prototype is one of them. Archetypes provide safety; outliers introduce risk. For fantasy running backs, it is well-known that more opportunities typically equal more fantasy points. However, as the positional landscape shifts to more committee and role-specific deployment, what does the prototypical top-12 running back look like?

The Sample

While the landscape has shifted gradually over the last 10-15 years, the previous three years have provided the most change. In 2010, NFL teams averaged 27.2 rush attempts per game on 63.1 plays per game. In 2022, NFL teams averaged 26.9 rush attempts per game on 62.8 plays. Still, the touch distribution varied significantly despite the consistent per-game attempt to play-per-game ratio. In 2010, 14 players averaged more than 16 rush attempts per game. In 2022, that number fell to eight, with just four finishing inside the Top 12 in fantasy points per game. In 2021, seven players inside the Top 12 eclipsed that threshold. In 2020, that number was six. Over the previous three years, the average number of running backs inside the Top 12 who averaged more than 16 carries was seven.

Furthermore, the number of quarterbacks that eclipsed 70 rush attempts was one in 2010. Seven quarterbacks met that threshold in 2022. There were 1377 total quarterback runs in 2010. There were 2313 quarterback runs in 2022. The RPO and designed quarterback run wave that is gradually hitting the league is here to stay, and that highlights a primary reason for touch distribution changes over the last three years. This study includes a sample from 2020-2022 to highlight the downward trend in running back carry distribution and its relation to fantasy points per game.

The Archetype

Over the last three years, the median top-12 running back averages 17.7 fantasy points per game and statistically looks like this:

Average Demographics

• Draft Capital refers to the round the player was selected in his NFL Draft.
• According to Player Profiler, the term College Dominator Rating was "first outlined by Frank DuPont in the book Game Plan, the college dominator rating represents a player’s “market share” or his percentage of his team’s offensive production."
• College TGT% is the percent of the total team targets directed at that player.
• RAS is the relative athletic score for that player, which is determined by a combination of athletic test results (usually from the NFL Combine).

Average Statistics

As mentioned above, more opportunity traditionally means more fantasy points. Attempts and targets per game are among the most correlative metrics when projecting fantasy performance, and players that see more opportunities inherently find the end zone more often. Some main takeaways:

• Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, and Myles Gaskin are the only players under 205 pounds to finish in the Top 12 over the last three years.
• The median years of experience align with the perceived running back lifespan, as Year 4 is traditionally the peak of a running back's value.
• Top-12 running backs are generally elite athletes with high relative athletic scores.
• The median rush attempt number from a top-12 running back in 2010 was 273, a significantly higher number than the 212.5 from the sample.
• Receptions per game are nearly identical to their mark in 2010.
• Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard were the only top-12 running backs to post a College Dominator under 20.

Based on this information, the prototypical top-12 running back sees more than 20 opportunities and scores 0.6 touchdowns per game. They catch 45 or more passes and eclipse 1,300 total yards. Several players meet some of these criteria, and managers can use this data to identify potential risers in 2023 and beyond.

The 2022 Top 12 RBs

The top 12 running backs in fantasy points per game in 2022 looked like this:

Austin Ekeler Demographics and 2022 Stats

Christian McCaffrey Demographics and 2022 Stats

Josh Jacobs Demographics and 2022 Stats

Derrick Henry Demographics and 2022 Stats

Saquon Barkley Demographics and 2022 Stats

Breece Hall Demographics and 2022 Stats

Nick Chubb Demographics and 2022 Stats

Joe Mixon Demographics and 2022 Stats

James Conner Demographics and 2022 Stats

Tony Pollard Demographics and 2022 Stats

Aaron Jones Demographics and 2022 Stats

Rhamondre Stevenson Demographics and 2022 Stats

The Potential Risers

Let's use the knowledge gained above to look at some backs who could work their way into the Top 12 in 2023.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh

Harris averaged 16 attempts and 3.1 targets per game, placing him just outside the 20-opportunity range. His 0.58 touchdowns per game were even closer. Harris lacked efficiency behind a poor offensive line and within a poorly-executed offense. Still, Harris is a good bet to meet the thresholds of the prototypical top-12 running back, as Pittsburgh drastically improved their line and will have an entire season of Kenny Pickett in 2023.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis

Taylor averaged over 20 opportunities per game in 2022, but the Colts' anemic offense prevented him from finding the end zone. He's an elite athlete that already finished inside the Top 12 his first two seasons before the slight falter in 2022. A return to total health and the Top 12 seems likely based on the thresholds he meets.

Dameon Pierce, Houston

Pierce battled injuries down the stretch in 2022 but averaged more than 19 opportunities per game when healthy. In non-opportunity metrics, Pierce could fare better. He does not meet the draft capital, college dominator, relative athletic score, or targets per game thresholds (his opportunities mostly came via the ground game). Still, the Texans brought in Devin Singletary, a signal that they're comfortable with their room and don't plan to introduce a far superior talent.

Ken Walker III, Seattle

Walker averaged just 17.5 opportunities per game, but he sacrificed many of those opportunities to now-Philadelphia Eagle Rashaad Penny before Penny went down with an injury. Walker checks many of the boxes of a prototypical top-12 running back, and the Seahawks' commitment to running it back indicates he'll carry more of the load in Year 2.

Rookies with a Head Start

College production doesn't always indicate how a player will perform in fantasy when they reach the NFL level. Still, two correlative metrics for top-12 running backs over the last three years are college dominator and relative athletic score. Three backs meet both median thresholds: Bijan Robinson, Chase Brown, and Evan Hull. However, Bijan Robinson may be the only back drafted on Day 2 or better. That is not the end-all, be-all for incoming rookies, but Bijan Robinson's profile indicates he'll finish as a surefire top-12 running back at some point in his career, barring injury.

The Dynasty Implications

Chasing volume is often a trap, but utilizing a top-12 running back archetype and projecting based on those thresholds can be lucrative for dynasty managers. One of the most indicative metrics for top-12 finishes from year-to-year is fantasy points per game. If players meet these thresholds early in their career, they're a safer bet to continue performing (e.g., Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, etc.). But targeting young players that have met some, but not all, of the thresholds is also critical. Targeting players that came close can be a winning strategy, too. In considering the median age, targeting players that fall into these circumstances, but are also under 25, is essential to maximize the value and lifespan of your acquisition.

As with all archetypes, there will be outliers. Austin Ekeler is one, and he consistently finishes inside the Top 12. But considering how teams construct rushing offenses in today's NFL is a crucial component of effectively managing a dynasty roster, and leaning into players that fall into one or more of these buckets can help you win your dynasty league.