Passing Matchups Week 19

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 3 Passing Matchups

Washington at Tampa Bay

Jayden Daniels has finally looked healthy over the last several weeks after suffering that rib injury back in Week 7 against Carolina. What makes this passing offense so dangerous is the dual threat of Daniels forcing defenses to respect his rushing ability. As a passer, he's been efficient this season, completing 69% of his passes, but it's clear that the Commanders need more receiving options outside of Terry McLaurin. Washington has seen Olamide Zaccheaus step up in recent weeks with the injury to Noah Brown, as Zaccheaus has 50 yards or more in each of his last three games, with 75 yards or more in the two games that Daniels played in full while scoring three touchdowns in those two games. Zacchaeus is an undersized receiver who is one of the best yards-after-catch players in football as he seems to get lost by opposing defenses, with over 50% of his yards coming after the catch for the 5-8 receiver. The ability for Daniels to throw the ball and have either Zaccheaus or Dyami Brown play a big role in this playoffs will be a key to how far this offense can go as while Terry McLaurin is a good number one receiver, he's not a great number one receiver which can cause him to be somewhat matchup dependent.

Tampa Bay's secondary is a complete mess, although there is some hope this week. The Buccaneers will get All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr back this week after he had an injury-filled 2024. The big question this week will be whether Jamel Dean will be able to play, as the team has been decimated at cornerback, and it would be a major issue if he's unable to go. The Buccaneers already lost their top two safeties. Christian Izien was lost in Week 16, while Jordan Whitehead returned in Week 17, only to be injured once again due to a car accident. If they are without Dean, this is a disaster for a defense that already has allowed the third-most fantasy points and third-most passing yards this season. Tampa Bay's stats have looked better in recent weeks, but they've faced quite possibly the easiest schedule imaginable as they've faced Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Cooper Rush, Justin Herbert, Desmond Ridder, Bryce Young, and Tommy DeVito over the last seven games.  

Buffalo vs Denver

What Josh Allen has done with this receiving group is nothing short of remarkable. Allen has thrown for 3,731 yards, with his leading receiver being Khalil Shakir, who had just 821 yards this season, while only one other player on the Bills had over 500 yards, which was Keon Coleman, who had 556. Neither the free agent signing of Curtis Samuel nor the midseason trade of Amari Cooper has resulted in any consistency for this offense, while Dalton Kincaid, who has dealt with injuries, has yet to emerge as the Bills had hoped when they took him with a first-round pick in 2023. This offense is content, taking what the defense gives them, and Allen is the best in the NFL at buying himself an extra second to go through his progressions to find the open receiver.  This does create a bit of a boom or bust without that reliable number-one receiver, but against Denver, this could be an advantage as Denver has Patrick Surtain II, who can only lock up one player, and the rest of the defense has shown that they're vulnerable.

Denver's passing defense has collapsed in recent weeks. Over their last five games, they've allowed Jameis Winston (497 yards, 4 touchdowns), Justin Herbert (284 yards, 2 touchdowns), and Joe Burrow (412 yards, 3 touchdowns). The Broncos have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL since Week 13. While Patrick Surtain II is the best cornerback in the NFL and likely to win Defensive Player of the Year, the rest of this pass defense has issues. Riley Moss and slot corner Ja'Quan McMillan have both been liabilities in recent weeks. We've seen Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore all top 100 yards against this defense in recent weeks. The Broncos run some of the highest man-to-man rates in the NFL, which should make for a difficult day for Khalil Shakir as he will see a lot of Surtain this week, but the other receivers on the Bills should be in line for a big day. The Broncos rely heavily on their pass rush as they have the most sacks in the NFL this season with 63, which is nine more than the next closest team.

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh

Lamar Jackson has just wrapped up one of the most efficient passing seasons we've seen in recent history. Throwing for 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions while completing 8.8 yards per attempt, which led the NFL, is simply remarkable and makes him a strong MVP candidate. The Ravens suffered a critical Week 18 loss against the Browns, as Zay Flowers will not play with a knee injury this week. There's not a direct replacement for Flowers, but the team will likely turn to Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely, as they could utilize a two-tight end set with Andrews spread out wide. The team has not trusted either Nelson Agholor or Tylan Wallace, as neither player has more than 250 yards in the season. Baltimore's offensive line has been a strength, with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and rookie right tackle Roger Rosengarten both playing at a high level, which has caused the Ravens to be sacked the third-fewest times this season.  

Pittsburgh's secondary has been sputtering to the finish line in recent weeks. This team has allowed 275 passing yards or more in four of their last six games. After a great start to the season through the first four weeks, the Steelers allowed 259 passing yards per game, the fourth-highest in the NFL. While the Steelers have two very good safeties in Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliott, their corners are one of the weakest units in the NFL. Joey Porter Jr., Donte Jackson, and Cameron Sutton are not NFL starter quality, which puts immense pressure on the pass rush and safeties to bail out this unit. The Steelers have one of the best pass-rushing defensive lines in the NFL with T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Cameron Heyward, and while they only have 40 sacks on the season, which is 17th, this is a unit that does not run many exotic blitz packages as they're primarily keeping their linebackers in coverage to help the secondary.