The Unexpected Rise and Fall of Quarterbacks. The Return of the Running Back. The Great Tight End Turnover. All are potentially shocking fantasy developments in 2024.
Welcome to Week 16 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality II
- 2025 Free Agent Running Backs
- Most Shocking Fantasy Developments of 2024 (see below)
- Dynasty Quarterback Value Check
Let's roll.
Most Shocking Fantasy Developments of 2024
Matt Waldman: Pick the most shocking fantasy development based on how the consensus viewed 2024 in August. What was it? What lesson does it impart?
Corey Spala: I will not note a singular player but rather a position. It seemed the consensus was out on drafting running backs and wanted to pivot to wide receivers or tight ends.
Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, De'Von Achane, and Kyren Williams are in the top 12 fantasy scorers in PPR leagues, and 11 in standard scoring, excluding quarterbacks.
The lesson to learn from the running backs providing fantasy relevance is understanding their environment. Three running backs noted signed a contract with a new team, informing us the respective team wanted to utilize their talents.
All running backs were trusted and utilized as a focal point of their respective offense. The final lesson to pull is that health matters. The only time the eight running backs did not play was during their bye weeks.
Alexander: As Corey alluded to, the top 15 fantasy scorers are all running backs, and there are only 3 wide receivers inside the top 20. Back when we drafted, 6 of the top 10 picks, and 10 of the top 20 were wide receivers.
What's interesting is that I'm not sure it imparts a lesson other than wide receivers ran badly in 2024. CeeDee Lamb lost his quarterback, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams were unexpectedly forced to compete for targets, Puka Nacua missed half the season, and Marvin Harrison Jr. should never have been drafted so high in the first place.
A little further down the board, Chris Olave, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashee Rice, and Stefon Diggs each had their seasons derailed or wiped out by injuries, while outside of Christian McCaffrey, high-end running backs mostly made it through the year healthy.
There are other mitigating factors to help explain the disparity between running back and wide receiver fantasy scoring this season, but they only matter on the fringes. What we experienced is most likely due to small-sample variance, which means there could be a chance for us to capitalize next year. I expect we'll see the first two rounds of 2025 drafts littered with running backs, creating great wide receiver value for the fantasy gamers who choose to zig while their opponents zag.
Waldman: As a running back touter for draft plans in August, I'll add that there were multiple indicators this would happen. For at least the past 5-7 years, opposing defenses have been acquiring the athletes and changing schemes to limit passing offenses. We saw a tipping point where change would come when Kansas City began seeing a ton of two-high coverage in 2022.
In 2023, we saw a significant increase in rushing production. Rushing games were posting production we hadn't seen in 10 years, which correlates to schematic changes to stop passing offenses.
If you're studying football trends rooted in schemes and stats over a broad range of years, the potential to be ahead of the trend was there to exploit.
