Sunday Morning Update
The one player that I keep going back to is Zay Flowers. With Lamar Jackson likely only going to run the ball if he absolutely has to, Flowers should be in a great spot this week. Brian Flores loves to play man coverage, which should bode well for Flowers who is one of the best man-to-man receivers in the NFL. However, he would not top Waddle as my top receiving option on this slate.
So, then it becomes, can I comfortably find a way to upgrade Marvin Harrison to Zay Flowers and is it worth the upgrade. The player that makes sense to downgrade to would be Quinshon Judkins, but how much of a downgrade from James Cook would that be? It certainly gives up two touchdown upside from a player like Cook. The other option could be to go all the way down to TreVeyon Henderson who I expect to be popular, but I’m just not sure that’s a route I want to go this week.
It's taking a big chance on a player like Cook. The Bills have been a team that has crushed me time and time again, as when I take Josh Allen, Cook has a big day and vis-versa, so do what you want with this lineup.
Primary Cash Lineup
- QB Marcus Mariota, WAS, $6,300
- RB James Cook, BUF, $9,200
- RB Rico Dowdle, CAR, $8,000
- WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $7,200
- WR Marvin Harrison Jr.., ARI, $6,600
- WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, $4,000
- TE Dalton Schultz, HOU, $5,200
- Flex RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,700
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,600
The one player who has received the most interest from the fantasy community over the last 24 hours has been Amon-Ra St. Brown who likely will replace Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the most popular high-end wide receiver on this slate. It makes sense as he’s cheaper than JSN, and we’ve Washington over the last few weeks be completely unable to stop elite wide receivers. Smith-Njigba had 129 yards last week, Rashee Rice had 93 yards and a touchdown in Week 8, and CeeDee Lamb had 110 yards and a touchdown in Week 7. St. Brown has 7 touchdowns on the year, which is second in the NFL just behind Davante Adams. We’ve also seen St. Brown have 10 or more targets in each of his last three games.
The concern here is the yardage. While it’s not the end of the world, St. Brown has 100+ yards just twice this season. If he has 7 receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown that’s 18.5 points which at $9,300 would still be below the value threshold of 2.2x. In my model, I have him overpriced by about $500, as I believe he should be in the $8,800 range, but the multi-touchdown upside is there.
If you want to play a more chalky lineup, here is one I would suggest.
- QB Marcus Mariota, WAS, $6,300
- RB TreVeyon Henderson, NE, $5,900
- RB Rico Dowdle, CAR, $8,000
- WR Emeka Egbuka, TB, $7,800
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, $9,300
- WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, $4,000
- TE Dalton Schultz, HOU, $5,100
- Flex RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,700
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,600
Week 9 Recap- Loss, Season Record 2-7
Last week I posted that it is “almost laughable”, after last week, I just throw my hands up in the air and laugh.
For the third week in a row, one single play was the difference between winning and losing. A 4th and 17 catch by Rashee Rice for 29 yards in the fourth-quarter was the difference between winning and losing which was Rice’s last catch of the game.
It ended up being a 2 vs 2 matchup of Ja’Marr Chase and Cincinnati’s defense against Rashee Rice and the Chargers defense. If you told me that Joe Flacco would throw for 470 yards and 4 touchdowns and that Ja’Marr Chase would only outscore Rashee Rice by 0.5 after Patrick Mahomes II had threw for just 250 yards, no touchdowns and completed 44% of their passes I would call you a liar.
At this point, the hope is that variance is going to have to turn around at some point.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Brian Thomas Jr. will miss this week with an ankle injury. This should elevate Parker Washington into the top receiving option for Jacksonville and makes him a very intriguing receiver this week.
- C.J. Stroud will miss with a concussion. Davis Mills will get the start. Mills averaged just 4.6 yards per attempt last week on 30 pass attempts, and greatly will limit this offenses explosiveness. Dalton Schultz however, could see a benefit as the Texans may look for shorter completions this week.
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