Thanksgiving Slate Thoughts
First and foremost Happy Thanksgiving to everyone who is reading this. Thanksgiving is always one of the most fun DFS slates out there, and this year is a bit different. This is one of the best Thanksgiving slates that we’ve had maybe ever. There are three legitimately good games where in the past couple of seasons there normally is at least a few offenses that you want to avoid. Last year, we had Tommy DeVito, Cooper Rush, and a rookie Caleb Williams. This year, we get Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes II, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow.
Normally on Thanksgiving, it is about whether or not you want to fade the one game (typically Dallas) that has the highest total. This week, all three games are between 48.5 and 52.5. While the Ravens are 7 point favorites, Joe Burrow is back and there’s an opportunity for Cincinnati to still have upside.
One thing to consider on this slate is that you may want to play four wide receivers instead of the normal three running backs. The running backs on this slate are just brutal once you get past the first couple of names, and they do not have the upside of even some of the lower-end wide receivers have this week.
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Baltimore (vs CIN) – 29.25 points
- Kansas City (at DAL) – 28.0 points
- Detroit (vs GB) – 25.0 points
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Jayden Reed will miss this week once again. Matthew Golden is also questionable. If both players miss, we will likely once again see the snaps consolidated between Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs. However, Malik Heath has been seeing 25-40% of snaps in recent weeks and could be a sneaky play if you needed to save salary. We could also see more of a two tight-end set if both players miss which was something we saw last week where John FitzPatrick, Josh Whyle, and Luke Musgrave all saw significant snaps.
- Kalif Raymond will miss for the Lions. This is interesting as the rookie Isaac TeSlaa should see more snaps this week. He could see up to 80% of snaps if things go right and he’s able to acquire all of Raymond’s snaps.
- Justice Hill will miss for Baltimore. It’s not that big of a deal, but Keaton Mitchell will have a more clearly defined role for the Ravens, especially in a game script where they fall behind or need to go with a more pass-heavy approach. Hill missing also should help Derrick Henry in a premiere matchup although he’s already seeing as much volume as he can handle.
- Tee Higgins will miss this week with a concussion. Mitchell Tinsley will take his spot, and while Tinsley is an intriguing play, a lot of the volume will go towards Ja’Marr Chase this week with Joe Burrow back.
- Trey Hendrickson will miss this week with a hip injury. This will greatly limit the Bengals pass rush.
Thanksgiving Slate Strategy:
Almost every season, we recommend that on a three-game slate you should really only be playing GPP’s. This year more than any other is a clear avoid from a cash game standpoint, as cash games on FanDuel are largely broken at the moment given the heavy trains in the 50/50’s that many people have experienced.