Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much they're favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
Here are my quick takeaways after looking at the Week 9 visualization:
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Bears-Bengals and Chiefs-Bills both feature identical lines and share the highest game totals on the slate (hence the image overlap). The home teams, Buffalo and Cincinnati, each have 25-point implied totals but are slight underdogs. The Chiefs and Bears are road favorites in what could be two shootouts. Despite similar totals, the paths there are completely different. Bears-Bengals features two good offenses and two of the league's weakest defenses, with Cincinnati (second most) and Chicago (seventh most) both ranking near the top in fantasy points allowed above expectation. In contrast, Chiefs-Bills pits two elite offenses against defenses that have been among the stingiest (Kansas City 32nd, Buffalo 20th).
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Colts-Steelers has the third-highest total and may have more shootout potential than it appears on paper. Both defenses carry stronger reputations than the numbers justify. The Steelers give up the third most fantasy points above expectation, while the Colts rank fifth, meaning both sides could exceed offensive expectations.
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Rams and Packers are in intriguing spots. Both passing games have been red-hot, but teams this far to the right on the chart (heavily favored) carry a risk of going conservative in the second half if things go according to script. The question is whether the Saints or Panthers can keep things close enough for Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love to stay aggressive deep into the game.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
With eight weeks of data now complete, we can draw firmer conclusions about which defenses are weakest or strongest against each position. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 9 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
San Francisco: The 49ers had a rough outing last week against the elite Texans defense (31st in fantasy PPG allowed vs. expectation) but get a much easier task in Week 9 against a Giants defense that gives up the sixth-most fantasy PPG above expectation overall. The matchup is especially favorable for Christian McCaffrey, who should be one of the slate's most popular players. San Francisco will be a key team to watch for injury news. Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall are both candidates to return to the lineup and are priced favorably. One of my focuses this week will be monitoring Pearsall's practice participation and any comments from the coaching staff or beat writers about whether he will be eased back into action. The combination of a 28% scoring boost and favorable defense-versus-position metrics bodes well for the 49ers offense.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars receive a healthy 16% scoring boost coming out of their Week 9 bye. Keep a close eye on the health of Brian Thomas Jr. and whether we see further signs that Travis Hunter could step into a more featured role. Early in the week, Hunter stands out as one of my favorite plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
LA Rams: The Rams are huge favorites against the Saints, which could lead to a heavy workload for Kyren Williams. He has only scored two rushing touchdowns this season after racking up 26 in 28 games over the previous two years, making this a strong multi-touchdown upside spot in tournaments.
Chicago: The defensive matchup against the Bengals jumps off the page. Cincinnati has been getting gashed by opposing running backs, which sets up nicely for D'Andre Swift.
LA Chargers: A 13% weekly scoring boost and favorable defense-versus-position metrics make Kimani Vidal a strong Week 9 play. He is priced up slightly but has topped 100 rushing yards in two of his three starts.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 9 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Indianapolis: The Colts have scored 29 or more points in seven of their eight games this season and are averaging 36.8 over their last four. It is a bit surprising to see their team total sitting at just 26.8 against a struggling Steelers defense that has allowed 33 or more points in consecutive games. Pittsburgh has been relatively stingy against opposing running backs, so Daniel Jones, Michael Pittman Jr, and Tyler Warren may be the preferred path of attack in Week 9 GPPs.
New England: The overall numbers are strong for the Falcons defense, but this has been a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team all season. That inconsistency makes the Patriots offense intriguing in tournaments despite a five percent scoring downgrade and Atlanta's strong defense-versus-position metrics.
DraftKings
Let's take a look at the top options on DraftKings according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").
Quarterback
Brock Purdy: If we get positive reports about his mobility in practice and the 49ers start to add back key pass catchers like Ricky Pearsall, Purdy should be in consideration for cash games. The Giants defense has allowed eight total touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks over its last five quarters of football.
Jake Browning: Early projections have Joe Flacco near the top of the PPD leaders on DraftKings, but he is questionable with an injury to his throwing shoulder. If he is unable to play, we would get Browning at a minimum salary of $4,000. While Browning struggled with turnovers, he also accounted for three or more total touchdowns in half of his appearances.
Patrick Mahomes II: Over his last five games, Mahomes has thrown 14 touchdown passes and added two more scores on the ground. The Chiefs offense looks more dangerous with Rashee Rice back in the lineup. The Chiefs-Bills matchup has the highest total on the main slate and clear shootout potential, making Mahomes the most popular pay-up option at quarterback this week.