Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares: Uncle Rico's Moment

He's still got it. He didn't throw a pigskin a quarter mile -- at least, not to my knowledge -- but Rico Dowdle did shred the sputtering Miami defense. The performance deserves its own entry among this week's Dreams and Nightmares. We'll unpack it more here in just a second. I've got the warm welcome to take care of first.

I'm glad you've decided to join me for another edition of Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. If you've checked this piece out before, then you know the drill. If not, then most importantly, thank you for giving it a chance. You rule. The overview is very straightforward. Did a team or a player do something that led to fantasy prosperity? I might cover them as a fantasy dream. Did they break our spirits and likely cost us our matchup? File those occurrences under nightmares.

Of course, there's always the fringe topics. I narrow my list down to six entries, so naturally, there are stories I'd like to cover but don't end up dedicating a specific entry to. Don't yell at me. I'm simply one man doing my best. In that case, I'll likely mention those fringe topics in the intro. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, The Drake Maye era, and one of the most bizarre games I've ever been subjected to watching fall into that category.

The Croskey-Merritt story is a great one. A seventh-round pick, pushing for a prominent job, then eventually shredding a tough Chargers run defense for 111 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries, five weeks into his career, was cool to see. Rookie running back arcs have been all over the place. This is another one to monitor.

I think we all knew the Patriots were onto something with Maye. The early returns were promising. He was a frisky, young gunslinger attempting to elevate a less-than-talented roster as a rookie in 2024. Now, the Patriots are 3-2 coming off a road win over the Beasts of the East. I'm referring to the Bills. Not sure I've ever heard someone call them that. I'm taking it for a spin. He's more than a fantasy QB1, now. He's the leader of a legitimate playoff contender. The Patriots being down was fun while it lasted.

I don't have too many words for this next one. The Cardinals-Titans game was as perplexing as it was cringeworthy. It's inspired me to dedicate today's last word to a certain epidemic wrecking havoc on NFL outcomes. If you love blown 15-point fourth-quarter leads, missed extra points, fumbles before the goal line, and fumbled interceptions that result in offensive touchdowns, then I'm not sure you'll ever watch a better game. It's all a matter of perspective around here.

Side note: I don't think this guy would've fumbled at the one-yard line.

A Bills fan caught a ball thrown by Josh and immediately RAN for the exit so he didn't have to give the ball back 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/fZW1ARzscU

— Zirksee🍽️ (@Zirksee) October 6, 2025

That should do it for the intro. The main event is juicy today. Here we go.

Fantasy Dream: Rico Dowdle Goes Berserk

I referred to Dowdle as one of the league's most underrated 1,000-yard rushers multiple times throughout the offseason. Given Chuba Hubbard's struggles as a pass-catcher last season, it seemed that Dowdle would be more involved than he was early. That didn't happen. Hubbard has improved as a receiver this year. Maybe that had something to do with it.

Dowdle looked like much more than a spell back on Sunday.

In Hubbard's absence, Dowdle played 67.7 percent of the snaps, handling 27 opportunities on just 27.3 percent of the team's third downs. He finished with 234 total yards and a touchdown, good enough for 30.9 Half-PPR points and an RB1-overall finish.

Rico Dowdle with the Cowboys in 2024

By most metrics, Dowdle was a top-20 running back last season with Dallas and a low-end RB2 for fantasy. His signing with Carolina gave off the impression that the Panthers wanted to address the void of a receiver out of the backfield and give Hubbard a legitimate running mate.

Before Hubbard's injury and the management we saw in Week 4, Dowdle's role was inconsistent.

He handled 36.1 percent of the team's snaps in Week 1. That still only equated to six opportunities. Hubbard, on the other hand, saw 21 opportunities and a 65.6 percent snap share. Dowdle's numbers dipped in Week 2, before they jumped back up to 38.2 percent of the snaps and 11 opportunities. In Week 4's blowout loss to New England, Hubbard was managing the calf injury that kept him out for Week 5. Dowdle still only logged 36.9 percent of the snaps.

The lead-back workload in Week 5 was enough to make you question what the roles could look like with a healthy Hubbard. Has Dowdle done enough to earn more opportunities with Hubbard in the mix? It's a fair question. I, for one, learned my lesson this week when it comes to attempting to prognosticate running back usage.

Usage can be the most crushing part of fantasy football. Patterns can be difficult to track, and the weekly variance is enough to drive you insane. I mention this as a segue into Week 5's first nightmare.

Fantasy Nightmare: The Woody Marks Let-Down

Hand up. I loved Marks this week. Add me to the list. I even went so far as to make him my Play of the Day on Sunday Morning Live. Before I get into what went wrong, I need to explore the concept of a rat line with you. It's something I heard discussed on a podcast a few years back. It piqued my interest.

Essentially, a rat line can be any form of bet -- a spread, total, player prop -- that feels entirely too good to be true. To the extent that you're scared to play it. You find yourself wondering how the oddsmakers could've ever let this number see the light of day. The reality that Vegas has an innate ability to be right is what makes you nervous. The concept can easily be assigned to fantasy. For the sake of this nightmare, let's call the players in positions that feel too good to be true rat plays.

In hindsight, the prospect of Marks popping against the abysmal Ravens defense after a breakout effort in Week 4 was a rat play. After all, why would an NFL franchise lean on a rookie running back who just put together his best game as a pro? The Texans do employ 29-year-old Nick Chubb, after all. The fact that this game ended up being a blowout makes this even more strange. In reality, it may have just been an imperfect storm.

My one fear with Marks was the prospect of the role regressing in a competitive game. The Texans clearly felt good about giving him some run in a non-competitive script. Does that stay the same in a game in which Houston closed as a 2.5-point road favorite?

Well, that question wasn't answered. Houston dismantled Baltimore. At first glance, Marks seems to have played a smaller role. Let's examine whether that was actually the case.

Houston Running Back Splits in Week 5 

There's one encouraging takeaway from these numbers for Marks. It's possible he did play his way into a larger role in last week's blowout win over Tennessee. As a result, he was no longer in for blowout mop-up duty. The fact that Pierce and Brooks combined to handle 40.9 percent of the snaps seems to indicate that the coaching staff views Marks and Chubb as the most valuable pieces of Houston's rushing attack. As they should.

Let's take that one step further. Marks still handled a slightly larger share of snaps than Chubb. It didn't mean more opportunities, but it did portray a much more even split than the fantasy production did. While we didn't get the fantasy day we wanted, it still may have been a step in the right direction for Marks' fantasy stock.

I do feel I need to point out just how brutal Houston's schedule is, particularly over the next four games. The Texans don't draw a run defense currently ranked outside of the top-10 in opponent EPA per rush until Nov. 16. At the very least, they should all be competitive games. If the dud provided a silver lining, it's that Marks is now a guy the Texans view as a key contributor in those scripts.

Fantasy Dream: The Post-Kevin O'Connell Version of Sam Darnold