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Top 5 Passing Matchups
Seattle vs Washington
The Sam Darnold Era continues to hum along. Darnold didn't dazzle in last week's win, but he didn't need to. It speaks volumes that an average stat line (17 of 31 for 213 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception) has become so rare for Darnold. He's throwing downfield like no other, leading the league in yards per completion and per attempt. He's thrown for 295+ three times already, all in very different game scripts. Jaxson Smith-Njigba has been the only consistent receiver for the Seahawks as they continue to force him the ball. He's dominated the air attack like no other (38% of team targets), and Washington's crumbling secondary can't slow wideouts. Smith-Njigba is 99 yards ahead of Ja'Marr Chase for the league lead, and he's played in one fewer game.
The Washington defense, never very strong to start with, seems to be devolving. Built around the gritty man coverage of Marshon Lattimore and jack of all trades Mike Sainristil, nothing has gone to plan for this group. Four of their seven opponents thus far have cleared 285 yards through the air, and the Cowboys would've been the fifth, had game script not slowed their roll. The secondary remains in need of a talent infusion. Rookie Trey Amos has impressed, but Lattimore and Sainristil aren't holding up their ends in coverage. Now, the whole unit is forced into a soft zone scheme that the personnel doesn't match. Until Dan Quinn can reshape this lineup, we should treat this as a weekly attack spot in fantasy. They've had no answers whatsoever for wideouts like Jaxson Smith-Njigba.
LA Chargers vs Tennessee
Justin Herbert and the Chargers got back on track in Week Eight, shredding the Vikings' aggressive defense for 9.1 yards per throw and 3 touchdowns. Herbert saw more pocket time and more downfield options than he had in a month; as the line gets healthier, so will the numbers. Most encouragingly, Herbert continues to spread the ball well, and he can easily weather losses to the personnel around him. After all, last week's big win came without downfield threat Quentin Johnston. Herbert throws to Ladd McConkey (255 yards and 2 touchdowns over the last 3 weeks) and a handful of role players who can erupt on any given week. The juicy name right now is rookie Oronde Gadsden II, who, since Week 6, has been neck-and-neck with Tucker Kraft as fantasy's top tight end. He's a dynamic threat all over the field, and he's caught red-zone touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.
The Tennessee defense has collapsed all-around since a promising opener. Perhaps too many conclusions were drawn over a date with a struggling Bo Nix. Since then, opposing passers have posted 8.5 yards per throw, most in the league by far. The only saving grace has been game flow, with the pitiful Titans facing fewer passes than most. Still, it's safe to assume a red-hot Justin Herbert will be able to maximize whatever volume he gets. Even C.J. Stroud snapped from a horrid early-season slump to complete 22 of 28 throws in an easy win. The Titans remain without top cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, who was wildly inconsistent before hitting injured reserve. Darrell Baker Jr. and Jalyn Armour-Davis are mere replacement-level talents, but they're forced into every-down roles here. The depth was hurt even further this week with the trade of slot cornerback Roger McCreary. All in all, Herbert has to be excited. He should be able to throw without resistance for as long as he's needed to.
Indianapolis vs Pittsburgh
The Daniel Jones Show is displaying no signs of slowing anytime soon. Two months ago, we wondered whether Jones had a true NFL future as a backup. Today, he's the first-team All-Pro frontrunner. Jones has completed at least 67% in each game thus far; couple that with the league's seventh-highest aDOT, and it creates Madden-like numbers. His 56.3% success rate leads the league, which tells us either he's absurdly accurate down the field, his receivers are dynamite after the catch, or both. Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Tyler Warren are the only reliable options for volume as they've claimed 44% of the targets. Pittman, for his part, has registered 55+ yards and a touchdown in all but two games thus far. Still, the role players are always capable of blowup plays in this attack. Alec Pierce probably doesn't see the ball enough yet, as he leads the NFL with 21.4 yards per catch. One of these weeks, the explosive Pierce is going to make more than one massive play in a game.
The Steelers' once-vaunted defense looks like a shell of its former self. It's still an expensive group, mind you, with name value up and down the roster. But much of it is past its prime, and opposing passers are capitalizing on wild levels. In fact, quarterbacks not named Justin Fields or Dillon Gabriel are posting world-beating numbers: a 70% completion rate, 323 yards a game (8.1 per throw), and 12 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. There's simply too much dependence on once-great cover men Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay, both of whom look firmly over the hill but play near-every-down roles. (There's also a bit too much reliance on a declining T.J. Watt to key the pass rush.) Joey Porter Jr. no longer looks like a coverage prodigy, and the safeties don't help much down the field. It's no coincidence they've already allowed eight different wideouts to record 80+ yards. That doesn't even account for eruptions by tight ends, who have averaged 19.5 points in this matchup. The Colts boast dynamic weapons at every skill spot in the offense, and they'll move them around to hunt mismatches downfield, which will be plenty. Few teams are more vulnerable to the deep ball right now.
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis
The Steelers continue to score efficiently from a relatively basic air attack. Aaron Rodgers isn't throwing down the field, as seen in his 6.1 aDOT. Nor is he doing much to extend plays; only Browns rookie Dillon Gabriel is holding the ball less in the pocket. Still, the simplicity is working for alpha receiver DK Metcalf, who's landed top-12 in fantasy in three of the last four weeks. On the year Metcalf has claimed 22% of the team's targets, not a wild number until you realize no other wideout has more than Calvin Austin III's 12%. On most weeks, Metcalf is the first and second read all afternoon. Given his talent and Rodgers' accuracy, this has resulted in spotty but difference-making production. Now, Metcalf will be moved around the formation like a chess piece to create mismatches with a shaky Colts secondary. Vegas expects these teams to score, and the Steelers almost can't without getting Metcalf involved on all levels of the field.
For all the Colts' monumental success thus far, there are real defensive holes on display. Some are on run defense, which pushes more and more action through the air. Some can be blamed on game flow, as the Colts have led comfortably for much for the season thus far. And some is the fault of coordinator Lou Anarumo's scheme, which simply doesn't work without lockdown cornerbacks. Charvarius Ward remains on injured reserve with no clear replacement, leaving Anarumo's blitz-happy attack exposed on numerous levels. All told, they were gashed by Matthew Stafford (375 yards and 3 touchdowns) and Justin Herbert (420 and 3), but even that doesn't tell the whole story. They also allowed season-best lines to Cam Ward (259 and 1) and Cardinals backup Jacoby Brissett (320 and 2). Brissett was the most egregious; he hadn't even topped 200 since the middle of 2022. It's fair to expect more of the same, at least until Ward returns. Apart from slot specialist Kenny Moore II, there isn't a cover man here who projects to hold down DK Metcalf.
Chicago vs Cincinnati
