Well, we're here. Playoffs Parish. Showdownville. Downtown Brouhaha. And in these here parts, every call is a Close Call.
In most fantasy leagues, Week 16 brings with it the semifinals. Four teams remain alive. They aren't necessarily the best four teams, but all have had successful seasons. All have talented rosters.
And all face difficult lineup decisions in Week 16
This time of year, strict adherents to the mantra of "Always Start Your Studs" often wish they weren't. All it takes is one wrong move and the season's dead. Toast. Kaput. No championship. No glory. No fantasy football until next fall.
No pressure.
But it's the lineup calls farther down the lineup that usually make or break fantasy lineups. The sneaky RB2 play who blows up at the perfect time. The WR3 who scores a pair of touchdowns. The WR3 who pulls a David Copperfield at the worst moment and makes your championship dreams disappear.
Saw him do that live in Arizona back in the day. No idea how he did.
And those calls are why Close Calls exist. So, let's get to work.
Every week here at Footballguys, Close Calls will make a case for a pair of closely-ranked fantasy options—and then make the call on which player will be more productive.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings.
Week 16 Close Calls
Close Call: Dak Prescott, Dallas (QB13) vs. Jared Goff, Detroit (QB14)
The Case for Prescott: It's not especially hard to make a case for Prescott. The 32-year-old leads the NFL with 3,931 passing yards. His 26 touchdown passes rank third in the league. He has both attempted and completed more passes this year than any team in the NFL. And he's fifth for the season in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Add in a loaded offense and a non-existent defense, and there's potential for a big week every time Prescott takes the field.
The Case for Goff: Goff hasn't been as prolific as Prescott from a fantasy perspective this season—but he's not far off. Goff's 29 touchdown passes trail only the quarterback who replaced him in Los Angeles. He's third in the league in passing yards with 3,672. He has thrown half as many interceptions as Prescott. And he leads a Lions offense that leads the NFL in scoring for the second consecutive season.
The Verdict: Goff. These two quarterbacks are in many respects mirror-images of one another—both in terms of skill-set and the impressive weapons that surround them. But their Week 16 matchups are far different—Prescott draws a Los Angeles Chargers team that is third in the league against the pass and has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks. Goff gets a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is 27th against the pass and eighth in fantasy points given up under center.
Close Call: Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas (RB21) vs. Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland (RB23)
The Case for Jeanty: Remember when Ashton Jeanty was going to be great? Those were good times. But to be fair, Jeanty's 3.5 yards per carry and miserable 1.3 yards before contact per attempt say more about the lousy team around him than the sixth overall pick in April's draft. Even so, Jeanty will likely eclipse 1,000 total yards this week against the Texans, and he and tight end Brock Bowers are about the only offense the Raiders have right now.
The Case for Judkins: The former Ohio State standout's rookie year parallels Jeanty's in many ways—a talented young back who has flashed at times but disappointed as a whole, largely because the team around him is stinky poo. But just like Jeanty, Judkins is a three-down back who is closing in on 1,000 total yards despite no supporting cast, and he has somehow managed to cross the stripe seven times on the ground—for Cleveland.
The Verdict: Judkins. Jeanty just can't be trusted—to the extent that this analyst would seriously consider starting Arizona's Michael Carter (RB25) in Week 16. His offensive line is terrible. He's being criminally misused. And while Judkins is coming off a terrible Week 15 performance, Judkins will see 15-plus touches against a Buffalo Bills team with the NFL's third-worst run defense.
Close Call: Adonai Mitchell, NY Jets (WR32) vs. Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville (WR33)
The Case for Mitchell: When Mitchell was shipped to New York as part of the Sauce Gardner trade, he appeared to be a throw-in—a young player buried on the Colts depth chart set to play a limited role on a bad offense. But the second-year pro finds himself as New York's de facto No. 1 wide receiver with Garrett Wilson out for the season, and in Week 13, Mitchell parlayed that into eight catches for 102 yards and a touchdown.
The Case for Thomas: That this is even a conversation speaks to the relative letdown that Thomas has been for fantasy managers after a fourth-place finish in PPR points as a rookie. But of late, Thomas has shown flashes of the fantasy asset drafters expected. Last week's four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown against the Jets isn't a knee-buckler. But Thomas surpassed 10 PPR points for the second straight week and saw his most targets last week in almost two months.
The Verdict: Thomas. Yes, he draws a lousy fantasy matchup with reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II (who will likely shadow him) and the Denver Broncos. Yes, Thomas' WR41 numbers for the season have been a robust kick in the junk. But starting Mitchell over Thomas is being cute—especially with Brady Cook at quarterback for the Jets. Being cute gets you beat.
Close Call: Jalen Coker, Carolina (WR42) vs. Stefon Diggs, New England (WR43)
The Case for Coker: The Carolina Panthers are one of the NFL's more surprising teams this year, and while rookie Tetairoa McMillan is the team's unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver, second-year pro Jalen Coker has been on a nice little run of late. Over his past two games, Coker has eight catches on 10 targets for 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Over that admittedly short span, Coker is WR17 in PPR points per game.
The Case for Diggs: The Patriots have experienced an epic turnaround in Mike Vrabel's first year as head coach—from four wins in 2024 to an 11-3 record entering Sunday night's showdown in Baltimore. If Diggs can average 90 receiving yards per game over the last three weeks of the season, he'll top 1,000 for the seventh time in his career. But with a decreased role of late and three catches for 26 yards in each of the last two games, getting those 270 yards won't be an easy feat.
The Call: Diggs. There's no question that Coker is the hotter hand. And Diggs' snap counts the past few weeks are legitimately concerning. But if the Patriots lose this game, there's a real chance the AFC East could slip away from them. It's an "all hands on deck" affair in primetime. And the Ravens are a better fantasy matchup than the Buccaneers, if only slightly. Diggs has a similar fantasy floor, but a far higher ceiling.
Close Call: Darren Waller, Miami (TE16) vs. Hunter Henry, New England (TE17)
The Case for Waller: Waller is the definition of a feast-or-famine fantasy asset. Waller has played in just seven games and has just 20 catches for the season, but the 33-year-old has found the end zone six times—including seven catches for 66 yards and two scores last week in Pittsburgh. The real selling point with Waller is his matchup—this year, the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 5.25 more PPR points per game to tight ends than any team in the NFL.
The Case for Henry: Henry ranks among the top-12 fantasy tight ends for the year, ahead of the likes of George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers and Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills. He's less than 50 receiving yards shy of setting a career-high in receiving yards and has posted at least 24 PPR points twice this season—that's two more than Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys and one more than Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Call: Waller. After being one of Week 16's waiver darlings, Waller's value evaporated in the eyes of many when the Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa for rookie Quinn Ewers. But it's not like Tagovailoa was playing well—if he was, he wouldn't have been benched. The change at quarterback also doesn't make Cincinnati's defense any better. When Waller catches Ewers' first touchdown pass, remember you read it here first.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.
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