Week 10 seemed to signify an awakening. Multiple receivers who have been first-half disappointments, including Nico Collins, Jameson Williams, and Jerry Jeudy, had their best games of the season. Across the league, it seems fantasy football managers recognized the strong production of players who started slowly, including Drake London and Ladd McConkey. Fantasy leagues now enter the home stretch of their regular season with the playoffs looming. We take a look at the entire league landscape.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | Snaps | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 25 | Drake London | 8 | 6-104-1 | 32.00% | 62 | 98% |
| Darnell Mooney | 8 | 1-17-0 | 32.00% | 57 | 90% | ||
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | 5 | 2-38-0 | 20.00% | 58 | 92% | ||
| Indianapolis | 26 | Tyler Warren | 10 | 8-99-0 | 38.46% | 68 | 88% |
| Alec Pierce | 7 | 4-84-1 | 26.92% | 73 | 95% | ||
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3-42-0 | 11.54% | 70 | 91% | ||
| Miami | 21 | Jaylen Waddle | 7 | 5-84-1 | 33.33% | 44 | 83% |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 6-51-0 | 28.57% | 47 | 89% | ||
| Greg Dulcich | 4 | 1-22-0 | 19.05% | 31 | 58% | ||
| New England | 29 | Mack Hollins | 10 | 6-106-0 | 34.48% | 48 | 79% |
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 5-46-1 | 27.59% | 36 | 59% | ||
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 1-9-0 | 13.79% | 53 | 87% | ||
| Seattle | 12 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 5-93-1 | 50.00% | 26 | 42% |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 2-74-0 | 16.67% | 33 | 53% | ||
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 1-5-0 | 8.33% | 29 | 47% |
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London has topped 100 yards and scored a touchdown in four of his last five games. He's been the WR1 in points per game since Week 4. His 17-game pace through the first three games was 90 receptions and 900 yards. Over the last five-game stretch, that 17-game pace is 126 receptions, 1,808 yards, and 20 touchdowns. Mooney's eight targets were his second-most of the season. He caught one of them. He has not been on the same page as Michael Penix Jr. all year, but given the comfort with Drake London, it leaves Mooney wanting. Production has been minimal, but Sills has locked down the third receiver job with the Falcons, playing 49% of the snaps compared to 5% combined between KhaDarel Hodge and Casey Washington. Atlanta faces a Carolina defense that shut them out 30-0 in Week 3 in one of the most surprising games of the season.
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Warren broke the Colts record for most receptions by a rookie tight end, with his 50 topping Dwayne Allen's 45. An additional 18 would put him on par with Josh Downs' team rookie record. He needs 109 yards for the tight end yardage mark. Warren and Brock Bowers are the only tight ends with 50+ receptions and 600+ yards through their first ten career games. Pierce is on pace for nearly 1,100 yards; his low yardage output since Week 1 is 48 yards. Josh Downs had nine targets in Week 9 and came in off a three-game touchdown streak. The reality is that with Warren, Piece, and Michael Pittman Jr all potential options in an offense built around Taylor, someone is stuck as a bad fantasy option weekly. The Colts have a Week 11 bye.
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Waddle is WR10 on the season and WR6 since Week 5. He had a 15-yard game in awful weather against Cleveland. Other than that performance, he has topped 82 yards in each of his last five games, averaging 94 yards per game. Dulcich is still off the fantasy radar, but he has led the Dolphins tight ends in snaps and targets the last two weeks with Darren Waller on IR. No receiver has established themselves opposite Waddle; Dulcich could find his way into a role as the third target. The Dolphins have a European game against a Commanders defense that has struggled against receivers.
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Hollins has topped six receptions and 89 yards in two of his last three games. He caught two passes for 9 yards in the other. Kyle Williams stepped in as a direct replacement for the absent Kayshon Boutte and generated an explosive 72-yard touchdown. Boutte's absence is not expected to linger, but this receiver depth chart could continue to shuffle. Austin Hooper is out in Week 11 vs the Jets, potentially giving Henry runway. He has averaged just 2.5 receptions and 28.8 yards over his last six games.
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The Seahawks threw 12 passes, the fewest in franchise history. Smith-Njigba's streak of 120-yard games ended at four, the victim of a blowout that only required the Seahawks to attempt 12 passes. He was over 80 yards early in the second quarter. He became the 19th player in NFL history to top 1,000 yards through the first nine games of a season. His 1,041 yards are the 27th most in a Seahawks season, a list he should rapidly climb with D.K. Metcalf holding the team record at 1,303. The Seahawks face a Rams defense that has dominated on the ground, forcing teams to the air, where they rank in the middle of the league for fantasy points allowed to receivers.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share