I've spent a lot of time over the last two months sharing my views on many players -- almost exclusively looking at those I believe to be great values.
You're not going to catch me making lists of players I'm avoiding.
DON'T MISS OUT: Order the 2026 Footballguys Draft Guide before they are all gone.
There will be no "Do Not Draft" list or "These Players Will Destroy Your Roster" discussion.
That's because I have a simple rule when it comes to drafting. The philosophy is this:
Every Player at the Right Price
I believe that, and I draft that way. But it doesn't mean I actually draft every player.
The whole "right price" thing makes it easy for me to pass on players in favor of others with the potential for high-end outcomes at better prices.
This has kept me from rostering a number of players with a ton of upside.
Yes, those last three words haunt me -- or at least have me revisiting some of them. Often, what feels like a sharp pick might be more of a blind spot.
The difference between a fantasy blind spot and smart drafting is whether new information changes a player's value relative to his price and alternatives -- and when it does, your draft behavior should change with it.
We'll get the ball rolling with a look at running backs I've seen differently than the fantasy hive mind has, starting with my . . .
Biggest Blind Spot
I've been drafting in best balls since February. I have zero shares of Eagles running back Saquon Barkley.
Why Am I Avoiding Him?
A year after winning the Super Bowl with Kellen Moore calling the plays that led to Barkley having a historic 2024 season, the Eagles ranked in the bottom 10 in every major offensive category last season -- Kevin Patullo's lone season running the offense.
Barkley experienced a significant drop-off from his 2024 Offensive Player of the Year campaign, in which he eclipsed 2,000 rushing yards and averaged 5.8 yards per carry.
He finished his second campaign with the Eagles after turning 280 carries into 1,140 yards and seven scores. He also hauled in 37 of 50 targets for 273 yards and two touchdowns over 16 regular-season contests.
That's a massive drop by NFL standards, but from a fantasy perspective, it was an even greater disappointment.
Barkley racked up 351.2 fantasy points in 2024, the second most among all running backs. His 22 points per game were the most in the league.
Last year, those numbers fell to 232.3 total points and 14.5 per game.
Barkley finished as RB15 -- well off his RB2 Average Draft Position (ADP) last summer, when he was selected with the third pick overall.
What's Changed?
The Eagles hired Green Bay quarterbacks coach Sean Mannion to replace Patullo as their offensive coordinator in January.
Mannion played under Sean McVay with the Rams and coached in Green Bay under Matt LaFleur, who worked under Mike Shanahan in Washington. Whether it's McVay, LaFleur, or fellow Washington assistant Kyle Shanahan at the helm, this scheme has been great for fantasy investors.
How does it differ from what he's been doing?
Barkley will be running a lot more outside zone with the quarterback under center. That second point shouldn't be overlooked.
As Dave Spadaro of the team's official website noted, for a running back, having the quarterback under center versus having the quarterback in the shotgun presents a new way of conducting business. In the world of precision and fundamentals, it can be a seismic change.
But the bottom line is clear: Barkley has to evolve.
His ability to adjust physically and mentally to the alignment and the one-cut-and-go style of play will be important.
But it's new to Barkley, and it's fair to wonder how he'll fit.
What Isn't Changing?
This is an offense that is going to be dependent on the run game. For the offense to succeed, the offensive line needs to be healthy, and Barkley needs to get going.
Also, Barkley is 29 years old.
He won't be getting any younger, and SI.com Eagles beat writer Ed Kracz told me last week it's fair to wonder what's left in the tank.
"Father Time is undefeated," Kracz said. "As you get a little older, especially at running back, you have a short shelf life."
Kracz acknowledged that Barkley works hard and invests considerable resources in his body. But he also noted there's talk at team headquarters about using Tank Bigsby to lighten Barkley's workload and keep him fresh all season.
Reasons to Open My Eyes
Barkley believes this new system can open up some things for him that he hasn't been able to showcase to this point in his career.
In addition, he'll remain a central figure.
"That's the plan," the coordinator told reporters. "Saquon is a focal point of our offense, that goes without saying."
Some positives are coming out early in training camp, with the heavy use of misdirection in Mannion's offense being among them. It has helped open up big holes for the running backs early on.
Better still, as Wood noted in his Week 1 Eagles Training Camp Report, "Barkley's exceptional agility and lateral speed tailor perfectly to the new scheme, producing consistent chunk gains in team periods."
Also, not to be overlooked, Barkley is very good.
In the four seasons in which he's played 16 games, he's finished inside the top 10 at his position three times, with last year's RB15 finish being the outlier.
I expect the change of play-caller and some better injury luck along the offensive line to work in the former Giants' favor.
Currently sitting at RB10 on the Footballguys projections, Barkley is the seventh running back off the board with the 13th pick overall. That disparity helps make my case.
Even with the positive reporting, there's risk at this price.
Blind Spot or Smart Drafting?
What might have started as more of a blind spot seems increasingly like smart drafting to me.
Whether I take a running back or wide receiver in the first round, I'd rather pass on Barkley early in Round 2 and take my chances with a wideout or any number of running backs whose prices and roles I find appealing.
That list includes Omarion Hampton (RB8) going a pick after Barkley; Chase Brown (RB10), who's going with the 16th pick overall; Derrick Henry (RB23) at the end of Round 2; Breece Hall (RB15) and Javonte Williams (RB16), who both go in Round 3; and a pair of fourth-rounders, Cam Skattebo (RB18) and David Montgomery (RB20).
I'm more comfortable going with all those options at cost.
Other Running Backs I'm Not Seeing
While Barkley is the highest-profile player on this list, the others are prominent enough to merit inclusion.
No Love for Love?
In Arizona, Tyler Allgeier is penciled in as the starting running back on the Cardinals' first unofficial depth chart.
Even after the team used the third pick overall in April's NFL Draft to land Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, nobody should be shocked at the initial pecking order -- Arizona handed Allgeier a two-year, $12.25 million contract this offseason.
In addition, Footballguys' Sigmund Bloom reminded readers that Allgeier already gave fantasy managers headaches once before, back when he shared the Falcons backfield with a top-ten pick in Bijan Robinson during Robinson's rookie season.
Now, Allgeier looks primed to pull the same trick on Jeremiyah Love, even though Love is coming off the board a full round or later than Robinson's late first-round rookie ADP.
That context matters, Bloom argues -- for Love to pay off this season, it'll likely come through receiving work and explosive plays rather than volume, since Allgeier isn't ceding the job and thrives specifically in short-yardage situations.
It's hard to argue with that read. Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic told me last week that "eventually, you're going to see Love get the bulk of the carries" -- the real question is whether that shift arrives soon enough to justify drafting him at his current price.
Blind Spot or Smart Drafting?
SI.com's Donnie Druin warned us not to be fooled by the team's initial depth chart. The Cardinals will use Love. Plenty. He's already getting ample work with the first-team offense.
But Druin went on to acknowledge, "The NFL will humble even the greatest of college prospects."
Nobody is crowning Love the best running back in the league, nor is he a savior to help dig the Cardinals out of the NFL's basement. But his RB13 ADP and late-second to early-third-round price is asking a lot of us.
With Hall, Williams, Skattebo, and Montgomery -- all with more certain workloads -- available later, passing on Love is smart drafting.
Judkins Unjustly Impounded
In Cleveland, Quinshon Judkins suffered a dislocated ankle and leg fracture late in his rookie season. Judkins' injury occurred late in the year (Week 16), but he's having a strong camp, and he's on track to be at full speed for Week 1.
The second-year man appears to have regained his confidence and explosiveness on the field, according to head coach Todd Monken.
Judkins is a strong runner, and he does not shy away from contact, so that confidence will matter.
Elyria Chronicle and Telegram beat writer Scott Petrak confirmed that the second-year back is on point early in camp.
"I really like Judkins," Petrak told me on Friday. "Monken showed with the Ravens that they're going to run it, and that's how you support the quarterback position when you have questions about it."
The Browns absolutely have questions at quarterback.
Given all that, Petrak said Judkins is going to get the ball "a ton" -- both carries and receptions.
How much is a ton?
Petrak projects 1,200 rushing yards and 40 receptions for Judkins as the "primary focus of this offense."
Blind Spot or Smart Drafting?
This one is a blind spot. The Browns completely overhauled their offensive line, a liability last year, over the offseason. Even if it's not great, local observers expect it will be better.
But the key here is anticipated workload.
Judkins' RB20 Footballguys projection calls for 259 carries, 1,042 rushing yards, and 35 receptions. That's slightly behind Petrak's projection, but both are slightly ahead of Judkins' RB21 ADP.
Even if I like D'Andre Swift (RB23) three picks later than Judkins at 48th overall, I'm going to start adding shares of Judkins based on a three-down role.
Priced Out of Sight
In Tampa Bay, Bucky Irving missed seven straight games last season with ankle and shoulder injuries -- Weeks 5 through 12.
He came back in Week 13 and finished with six straight games and five straight starts.
But Irving wasn't right. He underwent offseason surgery to repair the shoulder, although the recovery hasn't meaningfully impacted his offseason prep.
After 1,122 rushing yards as a rookie at 5.4 yards per carry, Irving dropped to 588 yards on 3.4 yards per carry in 2025.
The injury explains a lot -- but not all -- of that.
As Footballguy Matt Waldman wrote, "Irving is small, and his body hasn't held up to playing big."
Because of that, Waldman expects a three-headed backfield with free-agent addition Kenny Gainwell and holdover Sean Tucker cutting into Irving's workload.
Blind Spot or Smart Drafting?
Given the circumstances, I've been passing on Irving, who is being drafted as RB22 in Round 4.
That ADP reflects last year's points-per-game finish and his 2026 Footballguys RB22 projection, but I don't think any of that takes Gainwell into account.
Remember, Gainwell averaged 13 touches and 17.8 fantasy points from Week 11 on in Pittsburgh last season.
Only six backs scored more points over that span.
Waldman contends that even if Irving stays healthy all year, we'll still see plenty of Gainwell, who is currently being drafted as RB34 at the end of Round 8.
When I can land Swift, who is one of my early flag-plants, with the pick after Irving, taking Gainwell later is smart drafting to me.
That's the difference between a blind spot and smart drafting. I'm still comfortable letting somebody else pay the current prices for Barkley, Love, and Irving, but the workload case for Judkins has become too strong for me to ignore at RB21.
When the information changes, our draft boards should change with it. That's also true of the wide receivers.
You Don't Bring Me Flowers
Sometimes perception doesn't fit reality. When it comes to my perception of Ravens wide receiver Ray Flowers, that's undoubtedly true.
The Reality
As ESPN's Jamison Hensley noted, Flowers has established himself as the most decorated wide receiver in Ravens history. The team showed us how they value their star wideout after making him the highest-paid wide receiver in team history.
When asked about Flowers' possible contract extension this offseason, Lamar Jackson said Flowers' value is "out of this world."
Flowers signed a four-year extension with the Ravens last week. It qualifies as "out of this world."
The deal for the two-time Pro Bowler is for $140 million and includes $108 million guaranteed -- both of which are records for a Ravens wide receiver.
Flowers, who will turn 26 next month, solidified himself as Jackson's most trusted target last season. His 1,211 receiving yards accounted for 36.9 percent of the Ravens' total receiving yards, which was the second-highest share by any player in 2025 behind Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba (44.1 percent).
He set career highs with 86 catches for 1,211 yards. No other Baltimore wide receiver had more than 25 catches or 400 yards in 2025.
My Perception
I've viewed Flowers as a hit-or-miss player. Certainly startable, but the upside has been limited by his role in the Ravens' offense.
In past seasons, the offense used Flowers as a movable chess piece rather than a stationary boundary target. While that meant increased usage across multiple alignments, when the offense isolated him outside on critical downs, it created problems.
As The Lead's Stefan Macakanja suggested, in those moments, defenses were able to shrink the field and limit his options.
That's why, when the Ravens get into the red zone, the 5-9 Flowers tends to disappear.
In fact, he's never drawn more than seven end-zone targets and never scored more than five touchdowns in a single season. In 50 career games, Flowers has scored 14 receiving and two rushing touchdowns.
Because of that, ESPN's Mike Clay contends that Flowers' ceiling is lower than that of other top receivers.
Blind Spot or Smart Drafting?
This has been a multi-season blind spot. I've avoided Flowers for all the reasons outlined above.
But as Footballguy Jeff Blaylock noted last month, "Flowers was the fantasy WR7 last season while playing on a team with the fourth-fewest offensive snaps and lowest pass-play rate in the league."
That's right. He excelled -- finishing in the middle of WR1 territory -- even with Jackson and the Ravens struggling on offense.
Blaylock further noted that Flowers' 86 catches and 1,211 receiving yards were eighth and sixth in the league, respectively, despite being 31st in routes run (464) and 18th in targets (118).
And even without the touchdown production, Flowers has increased his fantasy production each season, as he looks to improve on last season's WR7 finish.
Given all this, I'm no longer passing on Flowers at his WR15 Average Draft Position (ADP) for similarly priced receivers simply because his touchdown ceiling makes me uncomfortable.
Instead, it's time I start seeing the potential upside -- especially with a healthy Jackson and a new playcaller in Declan Doyle, who worked under Bears head coach Ben Johnson last year.
