Now that all 32 NFL teams have hit the field for training camp, we'll soon have new developments to assess and add to our current intel on the players we're targeting. But, as those who have been following along all offseason know, we've spent the three months since April's NFL Draft sorting through all the intel we've received.
And we've drawn some conclusions.
We know the biggest draft advantages come from identifying players whose role or general circumstances have already improved but whose Average Draft Position (ADP) still reflects last year's perception rather than this year's reality.
We're Making Our Lists
That's why many of us go into drafts with players we consider "our guys," those with appealing blends of talent, opportunity, upside, and price.
This week, we'll look at "my guys."
"My guys" won't necessarily be "your guys."
Yes, there will be developments in August that could change our points of view. But I'm confident enough in my list to throw them out there -- along with the information, circumstances, and history that caught my attention.
I encourage you to use the same processes I do to create your own list of "my guys."
You'll find it's a worthwhile endeavor. Having a list of players you know appeal to you can create breathing room in tough drafts.
We'll get the ball rolling with running backs, and then move on through wide receivers and the onesie positions, QB and TE.
Monitor Hall
The Jets just told us what they think of Breece Hall by signing him to a three-year, $43.5 million extension with $29 million guaranteed, the fourth-highest average among running backs.
Even with head coach Aaron Glenn talking about a backfield rotation (again), I'm following the money -- and the talent -- here.
Hall's 2023 season -- 1,585 scrimmage yards, 76 catches, RB2 finish -- showed us his ceiling.
2024 was a step back. He finished as RB16, but blame the Jets' offense, which ranked 29th in yards, not Hall.
He carried a top-10 rushing attack almost alone.
This year brings real change: Geno Smith upgrades the QB spot, and new coordinator Frank Reich is known for unlocking backs as receivers. Expect Hall's targets to climb.
Since entering the league, Hall ranks top-10 among RBs in scrimmage yards, yards per touch, receptions, and receiving yards -- despite the noise around him.
His RB14 ADP put him in RB2 territory.
Still, the possibility that Hall, whose Footballguys projection calls for an RB12 finish, hits the high end of his range of outcomes is something I'm willing to bet on in Round 3.
Steady Can Win the Race
Dallas signed Javonte Williams to a three-year, $24 million extension in February -- before he even hit free agency -- locking in the guy who quietly delivered career highs across the board: personal bests in carries and rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns matching his prior four seasons combined, and a first career 1,000-yard season good for a top-10 finish among all backs.
The coaches back it up. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer calls him "an absolute pounder . . . going to score 12 touchdowns every year for us."
The volume supports it too: 19 opportunities per game, double-digit touches in all 16 contests, 62 red-zone touches (fifth among RBs), and 51 targets (11th).
Sure, there's talk that this is the year that Jaydon Blue will make contributions behind Williams.
But, barring the unforeseen, Williams should remain the clear lead back.
With a locked-in role, solid line, and coaches who trust Williams, I'm bullish for another RB1 season after last year's RB12 finish. An RB17 ADP and late-third-round price make him a solid value with enough upside that I'm comfortable drafting him as my first running back if I go with other positions in the first two rounds.
An Irresistible Force
The Giants passed on Travis Etienne Jr. and Ken Walker III in free agency. They skipped the position entirely in the draft -- instead investing in run blocking (Francis Mauigoa, Patrick Ricard, Andrew Thomas) to better serve new coach John Harbaugh's ground-and-pound vision.
It's the perfect setup for Cam Skattebo, who's already offered proof of concept.
Before a Week 8 ankle injury, Skattebo averaged 16.0 carries, 4.7 targets, and 96.3 yards with six TDs over six full games -- good for RB10 despite not starting until Week 4. In his three fully healthy starts, he was RB8.
He's fully cleared for camp, and our projections call for 211 carries, 893 yards, and 42 catches.
While he was on the field last season, Skattebo drew a 15 percent target share and 80 percent of goal-line carries. This year, new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is importing Kansas City's screen-heavy scheme.
My own ranking -- I have Skattebo as RB12 -- is aggressive. But we saw last year, his upside exceeds my number.
Skattebo's RB19 ADP doesn't reflect that. He's undervalued.
Meet the New Boss
The Texans traded for David Montgomery to fill the void left by Joe Mixon's lost 2025 season. As Texans insider Aaron Wilson put it: "He can do it all."
The track record backs that up. Montgomery never finished outside RB2 territory in four years with Chicago, including an RB5 campaign in 2020. In Detroit, even splitting work with Jahmyr Gibbs, he delivered two more top-20 seasons.
Houston needs exactly this. Without Mixon, Nick Chubb flopped, and the run game ranked 22nd in the league, getting stonewalled in the playoff loss to New England. Wilson says the Texans are building a "smashmouth" offense around Montgomery as the bell cow -- the same approach that made Mixon RB10 on a per-game basis in 2024.
Montgomery's ADP sits at RB20 with a late-fourth-round price. Give him the volume, and he outperforms that easily -- with RB1 weeks in the mix.
Room for More?
D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai formed one of the league's best RB duos last season, no surprise given Ben Johnson ran the same Gibbs-Montgomery split in Detroit. Swift finished RB14 -- ahead of Saquon Barkley and Hall -- while averaging 4.87 yards per carry.
The upside is what's missing: receiving work.
Swift caught a career-low 34 passes last year. Back in 2021, under Johnson, he hauled in 62 catches on 78 targets for RB10 production on a per-game basis.
With Caleb Williams entering year two and Johnson's system creating lighter boxes, Swift doesn't need more carries to outperform his RB22 ADP -- he needs Johnson to restore that receiving role.
Fantasy managers are drafting him in Round 4.
As long as your league uses PPR scoring, I see a real shot at top-15 numbers again with enough receiving upside to push higher.
Overlooked Again
TreVeyon Henderson was supposed to take over New England's backfield last year -- and some unfortunate fumbles by Rhamondre Stevenson opened the door for the rookie's ascent -- but it didn't happen.
Stevenson actually outproduced Henderson, finishing the year as RB22 to Henderson's RB25 on a points per game basis.
Henderson delivered multiple long touchdown runs, but Stevenson finished the regular season with six touchdowns in the last three games. The veteran also ranked fifth in forced missed tackles, second in yards after contact, and first in yards per target.
Both finishes from last season look repeatable.
Current ADP still favors Henderson (RB23, fourth-round) over Stevenson (RB39, late-sixth), with Footballguys projections expecting an even distribution: 184 carries for Henderson, 169 for Stevenson.
If you prefer to buy Henderson's playmaking upside, he's not overpriced. But given the gap in their respective ADPs, I'll have more Stevenson shares, by far, than Henderson.
Making Another Run
J.K. Dobbins was RB18 in 2025 before a foot injury ended his season at 772 yards and four touchdowns in 10 games. He's back with the Broncos, telling the Denver Post: "Last year wasn't a fluke . . . I'll be No. 1 this year."
The talent's never been the question -- he's averaged 5.2 yards per carry for his career.
Staying on the field has: he hasn't played 13-plus games since 2020.
Denver needs him. When Dobbins went down last year, rookie RJ Harvey took over and ranked 23rd of 30 backs in yards after contact per attempt over that stretch. Fourth-round pick Jonah Coleman adds competition, but doesn't change Dobbins' path to touches if healthy.
At RB37, with an eighth-round price, the discount covers the injury risk. And the upside is real, considering last year's production when he was healthy.
Finally Ready
Chuba Hubbard set career highs in 2024 (1,195 yards, 10 TDs, RB13) while Jonathon Brooks -- the Panthers' 2024 second-round pick -- battled through two torn ACLs. When Rico Dowdle briefly outproduced Hubbard last year, Carolina still let him walk in free agency, a sign of confidence in both Hubbard and Brooks' recovery.
Brooks was once viewed as the best back in his draft class, a Heisman candidate before injuries. Coach Dave Canales says he's now cleared for "football scenarios with other people around him," and beat writers raved about his burst in OTAs.
This staff rides the hot hand, and Hubbard and Brooks have complementary skill sets -- physical downhill runner versus explosive home-run hitter.
I like Hubbard at his RB30 cost, but Brooks at RB33 in Round 7 is more appealing to me -- especially with local and national observers characterizing him as an "X-factor" for the Panthers.
While it's been rising quickly, that's still a reasonable price -- and it could lead to league-winning upside for fantasy investors if a healthy Brooks becomes this offense's lead back.
The New Guy
Jacksonville's backfield is more ambiguous than ADP suggests. Chris Rodriguez Jr. arrives with real familiarity -- head coach Liam Coen was his offensive coordinator at Kentucky in 2021 -- and Coen has a track record of making backs work, from Irving's rookie year to Etienne's top-10 finish last season.
The market has Bhayshul Tuten as the lead back at RB25, with Rodriguez a distant RB45.
Footballguys Dave Kluge isn't sold on Tuten's price, arguing Rodriguez's college ties and likely goal-line role narrow Tuten's path: "This Jaguars offense is trending in the right direction, and both backs can find different paths to success. Tuten's path, however, got a bit narrower."
Remember last year: Etienne's strong camp buried Tank Bigsby before the season even started.
Training camp, not preseason ADP, will settle this one.
That's true for most players on this list. We're basing our lists on a variety of factors, but roles and opportunities are critical. Track usage closely as we move through August -- the edge goes to managers who move before the market catches up.
The market doesn't move first; information does.
That's as apparent at wideout as it is at running back.
Career Year Incoming?
A.J. Brown didn't join the Patriots until June, but he made an immediate impression on Drake Maye: "A.J.'s been awesome . . . You just gotta throw it near him, and he'll make a play."
No doubt.
Brown finished as a top-20 receiver all four seasons in Philadelphia, with top-5 PPR finishes in 2022 and 2023, and posted 78 catches, 1,003 yards, and seven touchdowns last year in just 15 games.
He should easily lead New England in targets on a team coming off a 14-3 season and a Super Bowl trip.
Maye already trusting Brown is the best part of this.
Brown combines big-time speed, size, and strength with contested-catch ability. He's also been among the NFL's premier deep threats over the past four years. According to CBSSports.com's Zachary Pereles, Brown's 33 receptions on throws 25-plus yards downfield are tied with George Pickens for the most in the NFL over that span.
Maye had the NFL's fifth-highest deep-throw rate and the league's second-highest explosive-play rate and air-yards-per-attempt rate last year. His massive leap as a downfield passer fueled his overall improvement.
Better still, when Maye trusts his receivers, he's more than willing to throw into high-leverage areas, which aligns with Brown's elite strength and ability to win contested balls.
As Pereles summed up, "It's not hard to envision Maye-to-Brown being one of the top big-play-producing combinations in the NFL if things go to plan."
Are we getting a great deal on Brown, who is being drafted as WR8 with the 20th pick overall?
Nope.
But the combination of skill sets, scheme, the Patriots' determination to land Brown, and the wideout's connection to head coach Mike Vrabel has me as excited as Maye.
I haven't gone so far as to draft Brown in the first round, but he's irresistible to me in Round 2 -- and as early as the 2.01.
Building on a Breakout
In New Orleans, Chris Olave broke out as WR6 last season. He finished the year even stronger, delivering three straight 20-plus-point games in Weeks 15, 16, and 17.
He was WR2 over that span -- when it mattered most for fantasy investors.
Along the way, he set career highs across the board: 156 targets, 100 catches, 1,163 yards, and nine touchdowns. He ranked no lower than seventh at the position in nearly every counting stat, including end-zone targets and air yards.
The Saints were impressed. The two sides agreed to terms on a four-year contract extension Thursday worth as much as $132 million.
So why is Olave still being drafted at the back of the WR1 tier with a Round 3 price?
New Orleans added Travis Etienne Jr. and first-round pick Jordyn Tyson this offseason, but Tyson is more likely to open up the offense for Olave than steal his targets. Footballguys Jason Wood agrees; Olave is a legit top-12 receiver at a fair price.
At his current ADP, landing Olave as your second receiver could be a league-winning move.
Unquestioned Role with Legitimate Concerns
Mike Evans missed nine games last year and saw his streak of 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons end. But the skill didn't go anywhere: 108 career touchdowns (10th all-time), most receiving yards of any active player with one team, and 2.3 yards per route run over the past two seasons, 14th among all wideouts.
San Francisco needs him more than ever.
Brandon Aiyuk is gone, and so are Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, and Skyy Moore.
Making matters worse, Ricky Pearsall is set to have season-ending knee surgery, and the receiving room is otherwise green.
Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak already called Evans a Hall of Fame talent and the matchup they want to feed in single coverage -- that's WR1 language.
The scheme fit isn't perfect; Kyle Shanahan leans on yards after catch, and Evans logged just 46 last year in eight games. But Brock Purdy thrives throwing to big bodies over the middle, and that should bridge the gap.
On Monday night, I spoke with Vic Tafur, who covers the Niners for The Athletic. Tafur told me there's no doubt the team expects Evans to handle a true alpha role.
What about his age and recent injury history?
For me, Evans' WR27 ADP and fifth-round price are worth the gamble.
If Evans is on the field all 17 games, we're paying for the floor and totally ignoring the historically high ceiling.
How Soon We Forget
Michael Wilson quietly broke out late last season. Through his first 38 career games, he averaged 4.3 targets and 7.6 points per game.
Over the final eight weeks last year, with Jacoby Brissett starting, those numbers jumped to 11.0 targets and 21.2 points -- WR3 overall production during that stretch.
Wilson was WR6 overall in Brissett's 12 starts.
New head coach Mike LaFleur, a Sean McVay disciple, says Wilson will play the "Z" role Puka Nacua plays in the Rams' offense -- the same quick-hitting, high-volume role that's fed Nacua 9.7 targets a game for his career.
Waldman is blunt about it: "Wilson is the WR1 in this offense . . . Wilson will be the first read in a lot more reps," even under Carson Beck.
With his WR40 ADP and seventh-round price -- behind Marvin Harrison Jr., who's going as WR31 in Round 6 -- Wilson is a clear value with real WR1 upside.
