RELATED: See all of our 2026 Player Spotlights here
Caleb Williams has been a polarizing player since before he ever took an NFL snap. The most hyped quarterback in recent years, he had a tough go early in his career, the victim of a dysfunctional roster, a coaching staff that wouldn't survive his rookie season, and an offense that had no idea how to use him.
Two years later, the conversation has changed dramatically.
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An 11-6 season, a playoff run, and a top-six fantasy finish have moved him up draft boards. There's an undeniably wide range of outcomes for his 2026 season, but at his current draft price, you're not paying for his ceiling. You're getting a discounted price on a potential league winner. Here's what's pulling him up, and what's holding him back.
- Despite accuracy inconsistencies, Williams finished as the QB6 in fantasy and tied Dak Prescott as the QB8 in points per game (19.0), with his rushing boosting both floor and ceiling.
- His ceiling lies in hitting the easy throws. He ranked among the worst qualifying quarterbacks behind the line of scrimmage, on 0- to 9-yard throws, and on 10- to 19-yard throws.
- The continuity between Johnson and Williams is what really matters. Johnson has the players to run his system, and Williams has the talent to make it unstoppable.
- DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo, an addition-by-subtraction move that lets Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland step into bigger roles.
- Williams is the QB7 off the board, with an ADP within two rounds of 12 other quarterbacks. Hitting on the right one in this tier can be the difference between your league's trophy and missing the playoffs.
Each of those points has a backstory, and they all trace back to two NFL seasons that looked nothing alike. Let's start at the beginning.
2024: The Highlight Reel and the Red Flags
Coming out of USC, Williams was a walking highlight reel. He regularly extended plays outside the structure of the offensive design. Quick feet and a sturdy base allowed him to navigate through defenders in the backfield. A whip-like release and powerful arm helped him rifle balls through every layer of the defense. Just about every half-decade, a quarterback hits the pre-draft process with a "generational" tag, and many pundits had placed Williams in that realm.
The Bears used their other top-ten pick in 2024 on Odunze, who joined DJ Moore and Keenan Allen in one of the league's star-studded receiver rooms. But there wasn't much else to get excited about. The offensive line had struggled. Matt Eberflus was the head coach. Luke Getsy was fired in favor of Shane Waldron, an offensive coordinator hire that left many fans questioning the team's identity.
Nevertheless, hype for Williams was uncontainable among Chicago fans. And in his first NFL drive, he did exactly what he often did at USC.
On 3rd and 3 against the Titans in Week 1, Williams took the snap out of shotgun. The edges quickly collapsed, squeezing the pocket. Williams spun backward to avoid a pursuing T'Vondre Sweat, then rolled left, moving laterally at the same speed as a crashing linebacker. He leaped as he released the ball, wrapping it around the lunging defender's outstretched arms. The throw sliced 35 yards through the air, just missing a covered Moore. Bears fans cheered as the YouTube highlights from Williams' college career played out in real time on Soldier Field.
Upon rewatch, however, none of it was necessary. When Williams hit the back foot of his three-step drop, Odunze was wide open on a quick slant from the slot, directly in front of him and just past the first down marker. Williams never saw him, spun out of the pocket with panache, and nearly made a heroic play. But he missed the easy throw that would have moved the chains.
It was a tough year for the Bears as a whole. Despite his background as a playcaller, Waldron appeared to be in over his head. The passing concepts became predictable and ineffective. The offensive line was exposed as one of the league's worst. Player effort seemed to wane, especially after a devastating Week 8 loss in Washington, where Jaquan Brisker prematurely celebrated the win before Jayden Daniels completed a game-winning Hail Mary against him. Despite entering that game 4-2, they unwound afterward, finishing the year 1-10. Waldron was fired midseason. A few weeks later, Eberflus was let go. Thomas Brown and the team sputtered to the end of the year, posting a 5-12 record.
The bad moments outweighed the good. And that opening drive in Week 1 was a microcosm of Williams' rookie season: unbelievable displays of athleticism between moments of hair-pulling frustration.
2025: There Will Be a Standard
Ben Johnson was the architect of the Lions' offense that had dominated the NFL for several seasons leading up to the 2025 offseason. A stout offensive line set the tone in both the run and passing game. Explosive, versatile running backs and pass-catchers made defensive game-planning a nightmare.
In desperate need of a culture reset, the Bears awarded Johnson a five-year, $65 million contract, immediately making him one of the league's highest-paid coaches. From the moment he was hired, he was dead set on changing the tone in Chicago. The theme of his introductory press conference could be summed up in one quote: "There will be a standard here."
The Bears also made serious investments in trades and free agency to protect their young quarterback. Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman formed one of the league's most expensive interior offensive lines, a sign that the Bears wanted to follow the Lions' blueprint by fortifying the trenches. In the NFL Draft, the selections of Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III furthered the expectation that the Bears were playing copycat, adding players who profiled much like Detroit's Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Over the rest of the offseason, it became clear that Johnson was not in Chicago to make friends. He preached accountability and effort. He harped on details and execution. Chicago beat reporters began making uneasy jokes about how Johnson never smiled publicly. Going into training camp, the young coach said, "There is no depth chart right now. If you want to play, you've got to go earn it."
To start camp, the reports were frankly awful. Johnson was coaching Williams hard and throwing a lot at him. Asked what he saw from Williams' rookie season to build off of, Johnson bluntly responded, "There really isn't a ton of carryover from what he was asked to do, the play calls or anything of that nature." Johnson was making Williams do everything, trying to find out where he was most comfortable, starting his NFL development over again.
As camp progressed, the reports turned more positive. Williams was responding well to the coaching, and explosive plays began to replace the early turnovers. Williams said of Johnson's tough approach, "That's what I've wanted. That's kind of how I've grown up, hard coaching, and I've played my best ball with a coach like that."
The first drive of 2025 was surgical. Williams' first three pass attempts were mature checkdowns to running backs, taking what the Vikings' defense gave him. Then came a quick slant to DJ Moore, the same route Williams failed to identify on the previous year's opening drive. Next, a deep sideline shot to Odunze while rolling out, trademark out-of-pocket magic. Then a five-yard throw and catch to Olamide Zaccheaus in the flat to set up shop inside the 10-yard line. Williams put an exclamation point on the drive with a nine-yard rushing touchdown. The Bears ran 10 plays, completed every pass attempt, spread the ball around, and finished with a score.
The rest of the Bears' season proved similarly successful. They finished 11-6, secured the NFC's No. 2 seed, and beat the Packers in the Wild Card round for the franchise's first playoff win in 15 years before falling to the Rams in a Divisional Round thriller.
Question marks surrounded Williams after his rookie season, but he heads into Year 3 with more confidence, a foundation to build on, and faith in his coaching staff.
