The Top 10: Week 4

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 4 Matt Waldman Published 09/29/2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect fantasy football

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.

The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.

While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what University of Kentucky Assistant GM Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM. 

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 3'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the bullet points in this section. 

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Michael Penix Jr. had a strong 2026 season debut, but the Packers defense fed Penix's wheelhouse.
  2. Bijan Robinson and the Falcons' ground game are Penix's foundation, but it can be synergistic. 
  3. Stick with Michael Wilson; he's too technically skilled for the fantasy value not to emerge this year.
  4. Kenyon Sadiq is worth an addition, but continue looking to solidify your TE room. 
  5. Matthew Golden will continue having moments, but he's not ready for the primary role yet. 
  6. Rachaad White could be weeks from ending Jacory Croskey-Merritt's lead role.
  7. Trevor Lawrence is playing with confidence, and the Jaguars are a well-stocked offense.
  8. Justin Herbert is a great thrower and a good athlete, but he's an average quarterback.
  9. The Patriots' receiving corps and Drake Maye need more than A.J. Brown.
  10. Konata Mumpfield has bye-week value in the future.

Note: If you see misspelled words/typos in the X posts, I'm rushing through these so I can deliver video content. Excuse the mess; we're working here...

1. Michael Penix Jr.: Good Atlanta Offense or Bad Packers Defense?

Making his 2026 debut after a season-ending knee injury in 2025, Penix and his teammates started slow. We saw drops, questionable understanding of route concepts from the receivers, and a miscommunication between Penix and Kyle Pitts Sr. on a screen. 

After the slow start, Penix connected on the next 15 of 17 targets. Granted, we saw a fair share of screens, short routes, and manufactured offense off misdirection, but Penix also delivered when he earned choice match-up opportunities with his receivers. This is where there's reason for hope with Penix and the Falcons this year and potentially long-term. 

The Falcons have the offensive line, a strong trio of skill-position weapons, and enough of a defense to challenge for the NFC South title, with an open window to build on potential success. Still, the Packers played a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3 against Atlanta to force that extra safety into the box and challenge the ground game. Allow Penix one-on-one matchups and boundary throws, and you're placing Penix in his wheelhouse as a thrower. 

The Packers tried to play Cover 2 early, but Bijan Robinson and the rest of the Falcons' ground game forced Green Bay into placing that extra safety in the box. More on this in a moment, but the vital insight for Penix is that Atlanta has the scheme and team to force opponents into Penix's wheelhouse often enough that Penix could offer bye-week QB1 value for fantasy GMs moving forward. 

2. Bijan Robinson: The Falcons' Foundation and Synergistic Source

Penix will be a variable in Atlanta's offensive success, but Robinson is the constant. Paired with a good offensive line and timely blocks from tight ends and receivers, Robinson carved up the Packers when he could reach the second level.

When wide receivers like Drake London (yes, I posted "Maye" below, don't worry about it, Maye hasn't sunk this low yet...) and Kyle Pitts Sr. can crack or turn an edge defender in the box without that extra safety around, Robinson can roll. 

Although not as important as wide receivers and tight ends blocking, good quarterback drop mechanics can factor into the success of a play, too. Penix baited Zaire Franklin into a drop that gave Atlanta's center and Bijan Robinson the advantage up the middle on the way to a 10-yard gain. 

If the Falcons can keep this run-pass-run loop closed against opposing defenses, they'll play their way back into division contention. While this sounds promising, the schedule ahead isn't the easiest, and Michael Penix Jr. is one game into another new offense. 

The talent is there for Penix to thrive. If Penix (and the Buccaneers' offense) proves that former coordinator Zac Robinson's schemes are suspect at the NFL level, we might see Penix surprise. For now, consider Penix a low-end QB2 with low-end QB1 fantasy value when the matchups are strong for the run and the pass. 

3. Stick with Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson is fantasy WR18 after three weeks, and that ranking is based on Week 3's production against the 49ers that earned him WR4 value. Some might be recommending you sell-high on Wilson, but I'd keep him for the year.

Wilson's route-running and pass-catching are so sound compared to Marvin Harrison Jr., Jr. and any other option on this depth chart that Arizona will be finding ways to pepper Wilson with targets moving forward. 

The only thing Wilson lacks is elite speed, but he has quickness, craft, and toughness at the catch point. I think 10-12 targets a game for Wilson isn't too aggressive. He earned 7 targets during the first two games, but I believe that's going to be the low end of his weekly target range and 17 from last week the high end. 

If Wilson earns 10-12 targets a game, Wilson delivers top-10 fantasy production at the WR position. 

4. Kenyon Sadiq: Worth Adding, But Continue Looking

Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor are hurt, and Sadiq performed well enough during the preseason to earn more playing time as a replacement in the Jets' offense. Week 3's fantasy TE 5, Sadiq turned in the 10th-best fantasy performance of any PPR WR/TE last week with 7 catches, 105 yards, and 1 score.

Sadiq earned a lot of open looks, but he also displayed the catch radius and mobility to make athletic adjustments with his body to the ball. Sadiq's hands must catch up with his body; a lackluster attack cost him a big play at the boundary. He used a similar attack up the seam for a diving touchdown grab, but good results with a bad process are usually temporary. 

If Sadiq continues earning wide-open, rookie-year Oronde Gadsden targets, he'll deliver top-10 fantasy production at TE. I expect defenses to be more physical within him after about 4-6 weeks and make Sadiq an early priority. 

If you take Sadiq, continue looking for a quality TE whose veteran consistency and skill could allow you to sell Sadiq high.

5. Matthew Golden: A Solid WR2, But There's Still Work Ahead

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Tags:
Matt Waldman fantasy football top 10 2026 week 4 Footballguys Top 10 Michael Penix Jr. Bijan Robinson Matthew Golden Rachaad White Jacory Croskey-Merritt Trevor Lawrence Justin Herbert Drake Maye Kenyon Sadiq Michael Wilson Konata Mumpfield
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