MISSION
The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.
The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.
While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.
The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).
My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for over 20 years.
The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what University of Kentucky Assistant GM Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.
Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM.
STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 5'S CLIFF'S NOTES
The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the bullet points in this section.
The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes
- The Marvin Harrison Jr. trade to Houston could work out, but blaming team fit is delusional, and the Texans still need a better offensive line.
- Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have become a strong 1-2 punch, and Jordan Love deserves his flowers against the Bears on Sunday for his pocket play.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense deserves highlighting for the way it shut down Tyler Shough with pressure and coverage. Shough is still worth starting, despite Minnesota's performance.
- Drake Maye has delivered consecutive strong fantasy performances, but you're looking at a volatile fantasy passer this year based on the schedule. The Raiders defense deserves credit for Maye's production.
- Ja'Marr Chase has two of the best catches you'll see this year. What makes these plays great are components of his game that are translatable to evaluating any wide receiver in the vertical game.
- Jalon Daniels performed competently in his debut against the Cowboys, but let's keep Daniels on a long-term developmental timeline.
- Bucky Irving is a great example that change-of-direction quickness matters more than long speed with most running backs. Irving is the anti-Omarion Hampton.
- J.K. Dobbins isn't Jahmyr Gibbs, but he's not the problem with the Denver Broncos' ground game. Hold onto him.
- Cam Ward's lack of production has folks critiquing his development. If other games are like Week 5's effort, the Titans' offensive line still has a greater responsibility for the low output of the offense overall.
- Pat Freiermuth is earning Aaron Rodgers' love by necessity; until the WR corps returns, play Freiermuth.
1. Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Texans: A Mixed Bag
I never agreed with folks that Marvin Harrison Jr. was a clean prospect. I agreed he has the skills to develop into a good vertical receiver who wins with his back to the defense, but a primary option with elite fantasy value? Not with the issue I detailed below, plus limited success with specific routes primary options run.
I've shown enough of Harrison's work with the Cardinals for the past 2-3 years that explain the NFL could potentially magnify his issues if not corrected. This week, an article speculated on some of the factors the reporter believed created a fissure between Harrison and the organization that drafted him.
One of those factors was Arizona's refusal to buy Harrison a Seeker machine when drafting him. The article linked above notes how dedicated Harrison was to using a jugs machine daily in his training.
If you've seen receivers use jugs machines, the work leans heavily on repetition. I've never seen a variety of rep types to integrate the technique into real-world performance with a traditional JUGS machine.
The Seeker machine is the first of its kind. It can play around with customizable speed, distance, trajectory, and spin. It can program playbooks, and it can deliver passes in succession to target various places on the receiver's frame.
Ohio State had one while Harrison was there. A lot of NFL teams have one. So, why is Harrison still having the same issues he had at Ohio State?
It comes down to three possible explanations.
- Harrison is working hard, but not working smart with the capabilities of the machine. A lot of performers like to practice the things they are good at. That's not practice as much as it is hidden vanity and comforting fragile self-esteem.
- Harrison is practicing with a variety of reps, but he hasn't pinpointed where exactly his tracking and attack fail him.
- Harrison hasn't figured out how to get the machine to replicate the areas where he fails, or he hasn't worked on the exact technique so the details are right every time.
Whatever it is, he's had the equipment - he bought one himself -- and it's still not better. A fourth possibility? Certain skills are hard to learn if they haven't been acquired before reaching this stage of football.
C.J. Stroud knows quarterbacking. He doesn't coach wide receivers or even scout them, but he knows Harrison's strengths. The opportunity for Stroud to play with a big part of his collegiate success is too enticing to say no.
Even if Jayden Higgins' knee injury was career-threatening, Harrison's current skills make him the second outside receiver but arguably no better than the fourth or fifth-best option in this passing offense.
Kayshon Boutte is a better overall route runner and contested-catch option while facing the target than Harrison. Jaylin Noel is more explosive, works with his quarterback well, and offers a lot more after the catch.
Harrison is an aspirational Mike Williams. Houston may force-feed Harrison to prove its point, but at what cost: the development of good options already on the team?
Harrison commanded a 2027 second-round pick -- the opportunity for a guard or center of starter value -- as well as sixth- and seventh-round picks. Unless the Texans turn around and try to trade for a veteran lineman with their stockpile of receiving talent, the team lost an avenue to get a building block for the weakest unit on its offense.
They can't run, C.J. Stroud is still on track for a similar statistical season as 2025, and they already have three emerging talents in the receiving corps not named Nico Collins. If the Texans force-feed Harrison, he'll get fantasy WR2 value from him.
It may help you short-term, but it won't keep Stroud upright and healthy. It will delay or obscure the development of good emerging talent at receiver, and there's no guarantee that Harrison's magnified woes will improve.
Think of Harrison's ceiling as a volatile low-end WR2 over the next two seasons.
2. Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Jordan Love: Flowers to All
Say what you want to say about the Chicago Bears' defense. Naysayers of Bryce Young did after the opener despite the Bears getting pressure on Young repeatedly, and Young has gone a long way toward disproving that his season debut was because of the Bears.
Jordan Love dealt with frequent pressure from Chicago and delivered often.
Jordan Love earned his flowers on Sunday vs. #DaBears Several throws delivered under pressure. #Packers receivers obviously did their job and then some, but Love was pressured all game and here's a lot of them below. https://t.co/VUuv5wx42a
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 12, 2026
Love has had issues tilting in pressure-packed moments late in games, but constant pressure has been one of those factors. Not on Sunday.
What may also be helping Love is the confidence he's gaining in Christian Watson and Matthew Golden to win the ball. The more confidence a quarterback has to let the ball go when they see the receiver in position to break open on a vertical route, the less hesitation there is, and that eliminates at least one way a target can be inaccurate.
Back to Watson and Golden. Their ability to track, earn, and protect the ball makes them one of the NFL's best 1-2 punches in a vertical passing game.
This trio of Matthew Golden catches were a massive part of a good day vs. the Bears #GoPackGo The snatch and turn in the MOF was particularly excellent. He has always good a good ball tracker. As long as he's high-pointing consistently with overhand technique, he's capable of excellence.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 12, 2026
This Jordan Love scramble turns around the S and he never recovers. Didn't help that the official couldn't get enough depth on this throw to get out of the S's way, either. Great catch by Christian Watson, too. #Packers https://t.co/qSXz9IKFk1
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 12, 2026
Dallas is up there when they use CeeDee Lamb as a boundary receiver. The Rams, too. Otherwise, that's it. The way this team is playing, and the confidence Love is showing in Golden, I think we're going to see two fantasy WR1s in Green Bay this year.
3. How the Vikings Shut Down Tyler Shough (and Why Shough is a Hold)
I profiled Shough and the Saints offense two weeks ago in The Gut Check. I noted tendencies and listed indications we might need to backtrack on Shough's season outlook.
These indicators included sloppy performances that include QB-induced sacks, too many off-script plays that aren't necessary, underestimating safety depth on in-breaking routes, and lower efficiency because defenses counter the productivity of the Saints' tight ends after four games.
The Vikings' vaunted blitzes won this game, but look at the tape for the indicators mentioned above.
Tyler Shough and the #Vikings pressure - Forced bad throws with pressure up middle - Funneled Shough to sides of the field where the defense had the advantage. Vikings painted Shough and the offense into a corner and kep them there. https://t.co/840vb8JGKZ
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 12, 2026
Shough made two interceptable throws. His bad throws were mostly bad because they lacked pinpoint accuracy. Shough did a good job of throwing targets away or at least hitting a receiver for small gains -- even if this was the product of the Vikings forcing him to target the receiver the defense wanted Shough to target.
The Vikings are the most aggressive defense in football. Shough showed enough in an unproductive effort that gives me confidence this was a better game from the defense than an awful effort from the quarterback. I'd keep playing him as your starter. His fantasy playoff schedule looks promising, too.