A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Mark Andrews, Baltimore
Phil Alexander: Andrews heads up a tier of intriguing second-year tight ends whose main obstacle to fantasy TE1 status is playing time. But whereas fellow explosive sophomores, Dallas Goedert and Ian Thomas, are stuck behind veteran stars on teams that also have established wide receivers, Andrews has a puncher’s chance to be Baltimore's most-heavily targeted pass-catcher -- even while sharing snaps with Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle. Andrews accounted for a team-leading 26% of Baltimore’s receiving yards after Lamar Jackson took over for Joe Flacco last year. Most impressively, his yards per target increased from 8.4 with Flacco at quarterback to 12.1 under Jackson. For context, Rob Gronkowski averaged 9.3 yards per target as a rookie and Travis Kelce averaged 10.4 in his first season. Any step forward from Jackson as a passer, or another injury to Hurst, would propel Andrews into the second-tier of fantasy tight ends.
Ryan Hester: Baltimore will run early and often, but Andrews is still the best pass-catching tight end on a team projected to start either two rookie wide receivers or one rookie and Willie Snead. Aside from the opportunity angle, Andrews is a great athlete who created mismatches all over the field in college and made some big plays last season for Baltimore. Andrews and Lamar Jackson have continued last year’s chemistry and turned it into plenty of touchdowns in camp this summer. He’s worth a late-round add.
Justin Howe: A slot specialist who rarely plays on the line, Andrews brings field-stretching speed and soft hands to a Baltimore passing game still searching for consistency. Down the 2018 stretch, Andrews caught 13 of his 18 targets from Lamar Jackson, including game-breakers of 74 and 68 yards. The Ravens spent heavily in the draft on deep-ball speedsters, and Andrews is far more talented in the slots and seams than Willie Snead or Chris Moore. Volume will always be scarce, and Andrews might be a year or two from his true breakout potential. But it wouldn’t be odd to see him carve out a weekly role of 4-5 impact targets, as few tight ends in the back halves of drafts boast his athletic upside. Andrews fits in better as a TE2 than several of the retreads currently going before him.
Dwain McFarland: Andrews will be in a committee situation much like every other skill position outside of quarterback for the Ravens. It is what they do. This offense will also likely be at the bottom of the league when it comes to pass attempts. So, how does Andrews land on this list? There are two reasons. First, he has a rapport with Lamar Jackson, especially near the end zone. Second, we have seen what Greg Roman can do with two tight ends in a run-heavy offense from his days with San Francisco with Delanie Walker and Vernon Davis. Walker operated more as the blocker (Hayden Hurst) and Davis was the seam stretcher (Andrews). From 2011 to 2014 with Roman, Davis eclipsed 19% of the targets in two of four seasons. At current ADP Andrews carries more upside than many people think.
Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh
Drew Davenport: Despite missing Week 1 and splitting time with Jesse James in 2018, McDonald was impressive. Last year the wasteland that was called the tight end position was unimpressive as a whole, but McDonald posted a top 10 finish even though he ceded 39 targets to James and his snap percentage hovered between 36% to 65% for all but two games. In fact, McDonald played just one snap more than James during the 2018 campaign. With James now gone, and more importantly, with Antonio Brown and his 169 targets gone as well, McDonald is in line for a bump in both snaps and targets just for showing up. Based on his current ADP McDonald should outperform his current slotting by a wide margin.
Will Grant: Training camp shows McDonald as one of the main receiving threats in Pittsburgh. With Antonio Brown now in Oakland, it seems the guy who will benefit most might be McDonald. He's had trouble staying healthy in previous seasons, but if he can avoid any major time lost, he'll easily be in the top 10 for fantasy tight ends this year.
Ryan Hester: The No. 2 receiver battle appears to be sorting itself out, which could mean that McDonald’s target outlook drops to third-highest on the team. But the distribution should be much flatter than 2018 when 49.6% of the team’s league-leading 676 pass attempts went to two players. McDonald inherits more snaps with Jesse James now in Detroit. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to blend volume and efficiency (he still has a good quarterback, after all) to outperform average draft position.
Dwain McFarland: If healthy, McDonald has a decent chance of matching the production of Hunter Henry and Evan Engram who go earlier than him. Without getting overly optimistic, he also has a chance to knock on the doorstep of the elite tight end tier of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. Why? If he only takes on the additional targets left behind by Jesse James, he will approach 15% target share. In an offense that will be in the Top 5 in pass attempts that isn’t a bad baseline. If he picks up a few crumbs from Antonio Brown’s leftovers, he could see a 20% target share. In this offense, that would be around 120 targets. At current ADP, he is a steal.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota
Will Grant: Kirk Cousins has done a lot for the Minnesota passing game and as he enters his second season, it looks like the Vikings will have a potent air attack. People avoided Rudolph earlier this summer because the Vikings drafted Irv Smith, but now that camps have opened, it appears Rudolph is still the feature guy. Look for him and Cousins to continue to build on what they did last season, and Rudolph to easily outperform his draft position. For a guy who is probably undrafted in a lot of leagues, he could finish with TE1 quality numbers this year.
Jeff Haseley: Kyle Rudolph is a forgotten man among Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, but Rudolph is a key contributor, especially in the red zone. 21% of his targets came in the red zone. 13.5% came in the end zone. In 2018 he was 7th in receptions among tight ends, 10th in receiving yards, and 11th in fantasy points per game. He may be the best value at tight end this year, and to top it off, the quarterback rating when targeting him is a stout 110.6. He's an excellent target if you decide to wait at the position.
Dwain McFarland: The Vikings will be operating from 12, and 21 personnel looks far more often in Gary Kubiak's offense in 2019. Adam Thielen will move outside in those looks, making Rudolph a potential favorite target for Kirk Cousins in these sets. Cousins has always had a thing for reliable pass catchers working inside (Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed). Additionally, this is a scheme that creates a lot of mismatches and space for tight ends with heavy play-action. Every play looks the same to a defense that has to respect run on every down. Rudolph is getting older, but there is a reason the Vikings met his contract demands. He is a fit in this offense. He will be a TE1 in fantasy this season and has more upside than many folks think.
Jason Wood: Kyle Rudolph was expected to be a cap casualty if the Vikings couldn’t trade him. Either way, he seemed destined for New England as Rob Gronkowski’s replacement. Things didn’t turn out that way as the Vikings instead signed Rudolph to a multi-year extension. That ensures he’ll maintain the role he’s held down for years. While Rudolph doesn’t have the upside to challenge Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz, he has finished 3rd, 7th, and 9th in the last three seasons. That’s a valuable commodity at his price tag.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Austin Hooper, Atlanta
Drew Davenport: The Falcons offense in 2019 is set up for success. Their defense looks like it will continue to be mediocre, they play more dome games than anyone in the league, and they have a lot of weapons. Acknowledging the fact that Hooper will be fighting with all of those weapons for targets, things haven't changed drastically from 2018. Dirk Koetter comes back to run the offense, but the last time he was in Atlanta he had no problem featuring a good tight end by the name of Tony Gonzalez. Likewise in Tampa Bay, Koetter utilized his tight ends frequently. Hooper has nothing to fear from the coaching change, and as one of the mouths to feed on a good offense Hooper quietly put up a Top 6 season last year. His ADP looks more like his floor at this point, so draft him happily after all the trendy picks have been made and he'll be in a great spot to deliver.
Jeff Haseley: After Week 10, Austin Hooper was ranked seventh among all tight ends in PPR scoring. His 35 receptions in that span were fourth among the group. He may be the 3rd or 4th option in the Falcons offense, but he's a popular target for Matt Ryan with 10 receptions inside the 25-yard line. By comparison, George Kittle had 11. Hooper averaged 1.91 yards of separation per target, which was 4th best among tight ends. Atlanta averaged 41.2 pass plays per game in 2018, 5th most in the league. He may not be the team's top target, but the volume evens it out.
Justin Howe: Hooper is anything but a glamorous fantasy pick. He’s fighting the pack for targets behind Julio Jones, and even with 71 receptions last year, he fell short of 700 yards. He looks locked into a safe, sanitized role as a Matt Ryan check-down (only 2 drops last year), in an offense that values its safe underneath game. Tight end is a shakier position than usual in 2019, and sure things are hard to come by. Hooper may not bring much upside to the table, but many of his ADP-mates enter the season with big questions of volume, target share, and efficiency. They’re flashier ceiling plays, but most have lower floors with much tougher paths to 70+ receptions than Hooper. Drafters looking to load up elsewhere and chase value at tight end are wise to sit tight for Hooper, who can stabilize a difficult position to fill.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Trey Burton, Chicago
Andy Hicks: Trey Burton finished his first season in Chicago as the sixth-ranked fantasy player at his position and now he is being taken outside the starting tight ends in early drafts? It seems an odd combination, especially as there will be little change in the offense in 2019. Sure, third-year man, Adam Shaheen might be fit, but Burton is the clear starter and will produce as such. If anything he could be even better in his second year on his new team and the familiarity on offense should breed even better results this season.
Jeff Pasquino: Trey Burton joined the Bears last season and finished as TE8 with a 54-569-6 stat line. QB Mitch Trubisky loved having a big target over the middle, especially in the red zone. Burton has a high conversion rate, catching 54 of 77 targets (70%) in his first year in Chicago. Not everyone is high on Burton with Adam Shaheen as the second tight end for the Bears, but Burton should be in line for a similar year in Chicago, making him a strong value tight end pick after the Top 8 are long gone. His upside is much higher than most tight ends available towards the bottom of the TE1 list this year.
Hunter Henry, LA Chargers
Phil Alexander: Next year, we'll be talking about Hunter Henry in the same tier of elite tight ends as Zach Ertz and George Kittle. Henry is one of six tight ends since 2000 to accumulate at least 250 fantasy points through his first two seasons, before turning 24-years old. The other tight ends in his cohort include some of the best players the position has ever seen -- Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jason Witten, and Jeremy Shockey -- and each received at least 175 targets in their first two years compared to only 115 for Henry. With Antonio Gates finally out of his way and Mike Williams' status as a reliable WR2 still very much in question, Henry has a path to a 20% target market share in a potent Chargers offense that has a history of leaning on tight ends in the passing game.
Jason Wood: Philip Rivers was a top-10 fantasy quarterback for years thanks to Antonio Gates. The Chargers smartly drafted Gates’ replacement in Henry, to ensure Rivers could maintain his excellence in spite of Gates’ advancing age. Things went astray when Henry tore his ACL last offseason, which would’ve been his breakout season with Gates out of the way. Henry managed back-to-back top-12 seasons splitting time with Gates, and now finally gets the role to himself. Rivers has shown no signs of decline, and the Chargers lost Tyrell Williams in the offseason ensuring Henry will see a target uptick and plenty of red-zone work. As long as Henry is a full go in training camp, he projects as the best value at the position.
Jordan Reed, Washington
Andy Hicks: Jordan Reed is, without doubt, an injury risk, but this year you have the knowledge that his draft price is so low he will be worth the investment. If he plays in any given week, he is worth starting. For one week, five or 12. Given the dearth of skill plays at receiver in Washington, not to mention the offensive line issues, Reed will be close by to bail out whichever quarterback starts. A fit Reed cannot be guaranteed, but when he is you start him. This makes him much more valuable than the other tight ends in his draft area.
Chad Parsons: Reed projects as the top target for Washington in the passing game, the desired role for fantasy upside at the tight end position. Reed's central downfall to-date has been health and Reed has been healthy (thus far) leading up to the season. The potential negatives are quarterback play and Reed's durability but both are priced into (and then some) his current draft position.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee
Jeff Pasquino: Delanie Walker suffered an unfortunate ankle fracture in Week 1 last year, costing the Titans and quarterback Marcus Mariota one of their top receiving options. Since Mariota became the starter for Tennessee in 2015, Walker was a Top 6 tight end for three years before losing 2018 to injury. Walker averaged over 77 receptions, 898 yards and five touchdowns with Mariota across 2015-2017, and that average would have been good enough for a Top 5 tight end finish last season. Tennessee is still thin at the wide receiver position, with only Corey Davis projected to catch more than 50 passes for the Titans at wideout this year. The team is hoping rookie A.J. Brown can improve the group, but Walker is far more likely to finish 1-2 with Davis as the leading receivers for the Titans this season, making Walker a strong TE1 candidate and a great value pick.
Daniel Simpkins: Walker is a vital part of the offense and was sorely missed when he went down last year in week one with a broken right ankle. The offense should be better now that he is back in the mix. The additions of slot option Adam Humphries and flanker A.J. Brown should also help Walker to see more single-coverage opportunities. Walker will jump back into the top ten fantasy tight end conversation he seemed to perennially be in up until last year.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit
Matt Waldman: Now that Walker’s value has risen due to a successful rehab, Hockenson becomes one of the best values at the position. Rookie tight ends are notoriously poor producers for fantasy football because the position is a difficult transition. The underlying reason is the inherent versatility required of the position. The highest-drafted tight ends are typically big guys who can block but lack dynamic receiving skill—and even then, they aren’t great blockers yet. The best pass catchers are typically big wide receivers who aren’t skilled blockers and also lack tools to defeat press coverage. Hockenson is the rare player who is already a good in-line blocker and a top-end downfield seam stretcher with skills at the catch point. He has dominated in the red zone during practices. Typically, I’m a skeptical observer of practice translating to real action; some of the plays I’ve seen from Hockenson have me sold.
Greg Olsen, Carolina
Matt Waldman: Now that Olsen has stated that he’s finally healthy, I’m ready to wait on him in most league formats. He still has the acceleration to stretch the seam and he remains Cam Newton’s most reliable route runner and target. Top athletes at the position who’ve played for close to a decade typically see a slow drop-decline in athletic skills and maintain bottom-line production later in their careers. Olsen is this kind of player and on a team with a passer and an offensive coordinator in Norv Turn who targets tight ends as a significant part of the passing game.
